# March 15th Primaries (Not-as-Super Tuesday) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 15, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055 "2016-03-15T12:08:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/201 "2016-03-16T17:04:04Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > The only insults I’ve seen in this thread were coming from you toward Democratic voters in Michigan and Ohio. “Stumblebums.” “Dipshits.” “Morons.” “Bernheads.” I’m just saying tone it down a notch maybe. These people are on your side. “Bernheads” is not an insult. Peruse #bernheads on Twitter and the overwhelming majority of tweets you will see are from clear Sanders supporters. And the voters I am talking about are on my side…sort of. They oppose my president on TPP, and their blinkered ideology threatens to disrupt economic conditions both here and around the world. We are fighting ignorance, right? Then we are fighting them. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/202 "2016-03-16T17:14:38Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I don’t see that. Looking at [the ‘delegate targets’ chart at 538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), there are 1012 delegates to be voted on between March 22 and June 7, if I’ve added them up correctly. It shows Trump with 652 delegates so far, but that doesn’t include any delegates from Missouri, where he’ll probably get 42. (He may also get one more from NC, but let’s skip that.) That would put him up to 694. So he needs 543 more delegates to get to 1237. > > 543/1012 = .53656, so he needs 53.7% of the remaining delegates. > > And 42 delegates from MO would put Trump 17 ahead of being on track to win per 538’s targets based on state demographics. Fair enough. I’ll defer to your numbers, as I was ballparking it. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/203 "2016-03-16T17:17:36Z")
Oh yeah, people are really gonna change their mind and come to your way of thinking once you call them names. “Fighting them” and “fighting ignorance” aren’t the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/204 "2016-03-16T18:15:14Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > This did show up right after I posted this, but since most of the comments point out that they guy seems to be incapable of third grade math, it isn’t going far… > > [AcehGround - Berita Aceh Terkini dan Terbaru Hari Ini](http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-worst-states-behind/) Good lord. That is something else. Some of the comments are pretty remarkable too. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/205 "2016-03-16T18:19:03Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Fair enough. I’ll defer to your numbers, as I was ballparking it. I defer to 538 who say 58% needed from here to tie in delegates - i.e. a 16 point spread over Clinton from here out to get to a tie in pledged delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/206 "2016-03-16T18:25:36Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Things have changed slightly since last night when I posted those numbers…google has the pledged count at 1,132 to 818 in favor of Hillary. So, not counting supers, Bernie would need > > 2,383 - 818 = 1,565 delegates. > > Dividing that by the number of remaining delegates (2,322), he needs > > 1,565 / 2,322 = approximately 67.4% of the remaining vote. > > Again, however, you just can’t ‘not count’ the supers. OK, now let’s look at somewhat more realistic electoral mathemagic. 1. As far as supers are concerned, I think the absolute best Bernie can do is half of them, because there are other factors at play, chiefly the fact that Hillary is Obama’s ‘heir apparent.’ Still optimistic to my point of view, but let’s say that happens. Bernie would then have 818 + 247 = 1,065 delegates (we’ll give him the odd man out.) And he’d need 2,383 - 1,065 = 1318. So 1,318 / 2,383 = 55.3 %. 1. Now let’s try 30% of the supers for Bernie, a more realistic outcome: 2. And, if things stay the way they are with the supers: The final percentages are rounded (all upwards, as it works out). Also, there’s a bit of uncertainty because the final popular vote won’t jibe exactly with the number of delegates, so figure roughly a half percent or so error. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/207 "2016-03-16T18:30:37Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I defer to 538 who say 58% needed from here to tie in delegates - i.e. a 16 point spread over Clinton from here out to get to a tie in pledged delegates. Are you looking at the most recent? ISTM, that was the percentage he needed before his losses yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/208 "2016-03-16T18:55:39Z")
Yes. > **[Clinton Is Following Obama’s Path To The Nomination](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/)** > > Hillary Clinton may have had a sense of déjà vu. Eight years ago, after being ahead all night in Missouri’s Democratic presidential primary — the Associated Pr… > [@](#): > > … she’ll net approximately 70 delegates from Florida, 20 from Ohio, 15 from North Carolina and a handful from Illinois and Missouri. That will expand her advantage to something like 325 elected delegates. > > Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way. Sanders would also have to overcome Clinton’s huge lead in superdelegates, although that’s probably the least of his worries. (If Clinton goes from winning the average state by double digits to losing it by the same margin, something cataclysmic will have had to have happened, likely sending her superdelegates scurrying for the exits.) ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/209 "2016-03-16T19:11:15Z")
The thing that gets me is even if Bernie gets his 16 point spread, he’ll tie Clinton in delegates going into the convention. Then we are to believe: 1. The Democrats that are the Superdelegates - the faithful of the faithful, the power brokers - are going to switch their votes to Bernie - a man who has never raised money for them. 2. Those Superdelegates are going to throw the African American electorate - who has overwhelmingly voted for Clinton and have been loyalists since Humphrey - under the bus for young white people. “God grant me the confidence of a young mediocre white man.” Is white privilege really this bad among liberals? ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/210 "2016-03-16T19:12:01Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Continuing from my previous post, there are 11 WTA states remaining, with 597 delegates. Plus NY and CT are winner-take-most, with 120 delegates. > > Of the WTA states, I’d bet on Cruz winning AZ, MT, SD, and NE for 150 delegates, and Kasich winning MD’s 38 delegates. That leaves WI, DE, PA, IN, CA, and NJ with 409 delegates. California isn’t WTA, but “district WTA” (i.e. “the South Carolina method” - and I think Maryland, Indiana, and Wisconsin (as well as West Virginia, which is not on your list) are the same), and I for one don’t see him winning very many districts in the San Francisco area. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/211 "2016-03-16T19:38:02Z")
Nm. Realized my error ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/212 "2016-03-16T20:54:54Z")
I see where I went wrong. I missed the 219 supers who haven’t expressed a preference. If the assumption is that every one of those ‘uncommitted’ supers (I know, that’s a truism) goes for Bernie, and that the current supers’ preferences remain the same, the 58% number is correct. Otherwise, the actual percentage is higher. So 538’s estimate for the remaining vote needed for Bernie is still probably low. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/213 "2016-03-16T21:27:10Z")
538’s point with the supers is very valid: Clinton losing by a 16 point spread would only occur because of something catestrophic occurring and in that circumstance the supers would be jumping ship too. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/214 "2016-03-16T22:46:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 538’s point with the supers is very valid: Clinton losing by a 16 point spread would only occur because of something catestrophic occurring and in that circumstance the supers would be jumping ship too. True. It would pretty much take an act of God for Hillary not to win at this point. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/215 "2016-03-17T14:44:31Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > California isn’t WTA, but “district WTA” (i.e. “the South Carolina method” - and I think Maryland, Indiana, and Wisconsin (as well as West Virginia, which is not on your list) are the same), and I for one don’t see him winning very many districts in the San Francisco area. So I see - thanks for pointing that out! California alone makes it a LOT harder to see how Trump gets to 1237. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/216 "2016-03-17T15:11:47Z")
I’m confused as to why someone doesn’t see Trump winning many districts in the San Francisco area. Republican primaries in liberal congressional districts are often not at all similar to those districts at large. For example Trump won around 5700\* votes in the IL-04 Congressional district. Now, congressional districts are roughly equal in size across the country (excepting the states which only get one district, theirs are harder to equalize, obviously.) So the IL-04 which is in Chicago has roughly as many voters as the IL-15 which is the rural Southeast of the State and which has a lot more Republican voters than the IL-04. But in the Republican primary process in Illinois both of these districts grant the same number of delegates: 3. Trump also won the IL-15, but with around 44,000 votes. You actually see this effect in several other states as well, some that have voted and some that have not. For example there are districts in New York City that in a Republican primary will only see around 4-6k votes cast. New York and California have voting schemes very similar to Illinois. So in effect, there is no reason to assume a liberal area will be bad for Trump. The district at large isn’t voting–Republican primary voters are voting. There aren’t many of them in places like Manhattan, Chicago, or San Francisco, but the ones who are don’t necessarily tend to be liberals. They do tend to not be evangelicals, but Trump does well with both evangelical and non-evangelical voters. Cruz is probably the one who will be harder pressed in such urban districts, as past elections on the GOP calendar have shown Donald actually does pretty well against Cruz in these urban districts that only have a small number of actual Republican primary voters. \*Illinois uses a loophole primary structure in which you get to vote for three delegates by name, and the delegate’s express a preference for a candidate. So Trump delegates in total received around 16k votes in the IL-04, 5700 is the average received by a Trump delegate. New York and California have a more traditional district by district primary process. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 10:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/217 "2016-03-18T10:00:13Z")
**Martin** , the reason I’d think that is by comparison to Republican voters in another heavily Democratic area: the DC area. Rubio won DC, and if the Virginia portion of the DC MSA were a separate state, Rubio would have carried that too. So if Kasich stays in the race to the end in order to give Republicans a non-Trump, non-Cruz to vote for, I’d expect Kasich to do quite well in the SF area. Plus, I still remember the 1964 California primary, where northern California went for Rockefeller, while Goldwater won southern California (and the state, by an eyelash). (Ancient history, I know.) ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2016, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/218 "2016-04-11T08:47:56Z")
Update: It turns out that the Democratic Missouri Primary, which originally was won narrowly by Clinton, had another chapter to it. See, in Missouri, the Primary just elects delegates to a Mass Meeting, where the _actual_ delegates to the DNC get chosen. The Mass Meeting was on April 7. A bunch of Hillary’s Delegates To Choose The Actual Delegates didn’t bother to show. See here: [http://progressivearmy.com/2016/04/10/bernie-sanders-wins-missouri-after-all/](http://progressivearmy.com/2016/04/10/bernie-sanders-wins-missouri-after-all/) > [@](#): > > However, just like in Nevada, many Hillary Clinton delegates didn’t show up to these meetings and Bernie Sanders was able to snatch more District-Level delegates than what he was supposed to have. Reported delegate allocation by the Missouri Democratic Party shows that 681 delegates (51.4%) were allocated to Bernie Sanders and 644 delegates (48.6%) allocated for Hillary Clinton. > > There will be eight Congressional District Conventions on April 28 where 46 delegates will be selected for the National Democratic Convention. On May 7, 9 pledged PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Official) would be elected based on the results of the primary. The voters would then select the last 15 pledged delegates on June 18. The table below shows that if all District-Level delegates show up to the upcoming conventions, Sanders should get 37 pledged delegates and Clinton would get 34 delegates. America really needs to get organized. It’s ridiculous that we don’t have one process for voting and getting elected. It’s just a relic of history that all these patchwork rules carry on. It’s past time to get everyone on the same page. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2016, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/219 "2016-04-11T11:01:51Z")
Various folks have argued in various threads that it doesn’t only matter who one votes for. It also matter how enthusiastically one does so. This seems to be a corollary of that. How hard your supporters support you has consequences. Which may be Trump’s undoing (or doing) at their convention. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2016, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/220 "2016-04-11T11:31:37Z")
Are not state Democratic Parties private organizations? I suppose they can do stuff like this. It does seem hinky. I went to my county’s mass meeting. The Bernie supporters drastically outnumbered the Hillary supporters. I think the HRC side of the room had enough people to send their batch of delegates if two-thirds of them were willing and able to go. I’m not sure if they had quite enough to have alternates. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=12)