# March 15th Primaries (Not-as-Super Tuesday)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [March 15, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055 "2016-03-15T12:08:35Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/81 "2016-03-16T00:24:53Z")

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> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Bernie still has a chance at MO and IL, though the optics of losing OH and FL will probably more than make up for any benefit from that – those are the two most important states in every recent Presidential election. I don’t think it’s over, but it’s losing steam.

There is no way for him to win enough pledged delegates after losing so many large population states.

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**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/82 "2016-03-16T00:27:45Z")

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North Carolina is called for Clinton.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/83 "2016-03-16T00:28:38Z")

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> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> There is no way for him to win enough pledged delegates after losing so many large population states.

You’re probably right, I’m just not quite willing to call it.

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**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/84 "2016-03-16T00:31:34Z")

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> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> [In honor of Bernie Sander’s failed 2016 presidential bid.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDKO6XYXioc)

As much as I disagree with him, it’s been nice seeing him out there. He really does accurately represent the views of a big chunk of Americans, as naive as they may be. 😃

Democracy in action.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/85 "2016-03-16T00:33:59Z")

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> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> You’re probably right, I’m just not quite willing to call it.

Even excluding superdelegates, before tonight Clinton led Sanders by about 200 pledged delegates. After tonight it will be closer to 400. Sanders can’t win 400 net pledged delegates over Clinton over the rest of the campaign.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/86 "2016-03-16T00:34:11Z")

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What is the point in Clinton and Trump speaking so early? Only 3 out of 10 races have been called.

I sure hope they don’t cover Trump going on and on for an hour again.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/87 "2016-03-16T00:35:38Z")

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> [@ISiddiqui](#):
>
> Rubio suspends.

Autoerotically? 🙂

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**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/88 "2016-03-16T00:35:48Z")

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> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Bernie still has a chance at MO and IL, though the optics of losing OH and FL will probably more than make up for any benefit from that – those are the two most important states in every recent Presidential election. I don’t think it’s over, but it’s losing steam.

Right, and people can’t just say “well that’s the deep south” which are red states, Hillary is winning in important general election states now (North Carolina and Virginia are also usually contested in presidential elections, and she’s already won those.) This hits directly at the electability argument Bernie has been making

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/89 "2016-03-16T00:36:55Z")

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> [@Hank\_Beecher](#):
>
> As much as I disagree with him, it’s been nice seeing him out there. He really does accurately represent the views of a big chunk of Americans, as naive as they may be. 😃
> 
> Democracy in action.

Well, he won’t be the last or the greatest to represent that chunk. And making that possible is the real point of his campaign. He’ll win eventually, in the sense that Goldwater won in 1980.

As for the big naïve chunk of Americans whom Trump represents . . . no, no higher or longer-term goals in mind, there. He just doesn’t care where herd goes after he starts the stampede.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/90 "2016-03-16T00:37:54Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Well, he won’t be the last or the greatest to represent that chunk. And that is the real point of his campaign.

Pretty much. The goal is to build a movement.

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**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/91 "2016-03-16T00:40:02Z")

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> [@Frank](#):
>
> If I’ve counted right, the next win for Cruz will give him eight and allow him to be nominated at the convention. (If they don’t change the rules again.)

Aside from it being the rule they were expecting to change even before things went extra wonky it’s not just about winning the state. It’s winning the majority of delegates in a state. It’s easy in winner take all states but there’s a difference between being the winner and being the winner for rule 40 purposes for the rest.

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**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/92 "2016-03-16T00:41:05Z")

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Trump still 25,000 votes behind in Ohio.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/93 "2016-03-16T00:42:11Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> . . . And now the candidate can build a **platform!** Nyuk-nyuk-nyuk! I’ll show myself out.

lol awesome!

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**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/94 "2016-03-16T00:43:38Z")

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> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> Even excluding superdelegates, before tonight Clinton led Sanders by about 200 pledged delegates. After tonight it will be closer to 400. Sanders can’t win 400 net pledged delegates over Clinton over the rest of the campaign.

I read that Sanders had to win 54% of the delegates (before 3/15 primaries) to be successful. Hillary is leading in all 5 primaries, 2 have been called for her. I’m betting Sanders sees the light and throws in the towel later tonight. He’s just wasting his time from this point on.

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**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/95 "2016-03-16T00:44:04Z")

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Ohio called for Clinton. Way bigger margin than expected so far.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/96 "2016-03-16T00:44:11Z")

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> [@Onomatopoeia](#):
>
> Cruz is oh so slowly closing the gap between himself and Trump in North Carolina.

Doesn’t matter. It’s the only proportional State today so a couple percentage points either way means almost nothing.

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**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/97 "2016-03-16T00:44:17Z")

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Put a fork in him, he’s done.

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**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/98 "2016-03-16T00:46:18Z")

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> [@jsgoddess](#):
>
> Ohio called for Clinton. Way bigger margin than expected so far.

??? Ohio is only 13% counted. Do you mean North Carolina?

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**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/99 "2016-03-16T00:46:47Z")

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So are we all ready to conclude that Sanders’ Michigan victory was a fluke? As 538 is pointing out, there is no sign of any post-Michigan bounce in any of these races so far.

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**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\
**Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/100 "2016-03-16T00:47:14Z")

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> [@Saint\_Cad](#):
>
> Trump still 25,000 votes behind in Ohio.

Kasich has Ohio wrapped up. Trump will never catch up there.

Trump is, however, winning everywhere else.

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