# March 15th Primaries (Not-as-Super Tuesday) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 15, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055 "2016-03-15T12:08:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/121 "2016-03-16T01:42:05Z")
Cruz is nipping at Trump’s heels in Missouri. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/122 "2016-03-16T01:46:02Z")
And Bernie has a slight lead in Missouri (albeit St. Louis and KC still haven’t reported the majority of their vote yet (I’m using the NY Times). But it’s got the fewest delegates of the five states being contested. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/123 "2016-03-16T01:51:49Z")
If Trump wins the remaining races tonight, which looks very possible, does he have a path to 1237, or has Kasich’s win stymied him? And what about Cruz if he doesn’t win anything tonight? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/124 "2016-03-16T01:54:08Z")
North Carolina has been called for Trump. I suspect Illinois will be called for him next. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/125 "2016-03-16T01:55:16Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > North Carolina has been called for Trump. I suspect Illinois will be called for him next. You were right… ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/126 "2016-03-16T01:55:54Z")
Yep, Illinois was just called for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/127 "2016-03-16T01:58:11Z")
Cruz is beginning to fall further behind Trump in Missouri. Scary times, man. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/128 "2016-03-16T01:59:34Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Plus, doesn’t he have Schwarzenegger out stumping for him? Arnold is NOT popular in California. When he left office, he had the lowest support of any Governor ever. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/129 "2016-03-16T02:03:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It seems to me that California might be fertile ground for Kasich. Not terribly evangelical, perhaps less conservative than other states. Some of the eastern states like DE, MD, PA could also be good ground for him. He has no chance to catch Trump, but he and Cruz can and perhaps probably will deny Trump a first ballot convention win. California Rs are big on low taxes, defense spending, and economic freedom while not giving a crap about abortion, religion, womens’ “place”, or any other Southern-fried silliness. Kasich is a little better than some on that score, but he’s also got a lot of Evangelical / rural baggage which massively turns off the California R crowd. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/130 "2016-03-16T02:04:26Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Cruz is nipping at Trump’s heels in Missouri. Somehow this sentence has a Zenlike poetic quality. Good username/post combo. Too much caffeine . . . ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/131 "2016-03-16T02:05:36Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Frankly, Kasich winning Ohio is probably an overall good for Trump. It’s guaranteed none of his voters would have gone to Trump in future primaries. Just as well he’s staying in to bleed off Cruz. But they might have gone to Clinton, or stayed home. Kasich staying in means more people have a way to vote Republican that’s not Trump; that’s not helping him. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/132 "2016-03-16T02:13:21Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > If Trump wins the remaining races tonight, which looks very possible, does he have a path to 1237, or has Kasich’s win stymied him? Depends on Missouri. But I’m thinking Nate Silver is going to say it’s on the edge. Path, yes. Probability of a clear and undisputed 1,237? I’m guessing no. Few of the Cleveland delegates will be actual Trump supporters. The question is whether they would dare throw over a strong plurality. Another question is what kind of masochist would accept a nomination tainted by someone else having the most elected delegates. Cruz polls even with Clinton today, in part, because people being asked the question are assuming Ted would have won the nomination in a fair and transparent manner. As someone who stands accused of stealing the nomination away from the rightful winner, he wouldn’t poll nearly as well. One little factor that could lead to the delegates denying Trump the nomination is the unusally long period between the convention and the general election. This leaves a lot of time for voters to forget about the convention mess. I hope that wouldn’t happen, but, of course, no one knows. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/133 "2016-03-16T02:15:16Z")
Kasich is now the only establishment candidate left. Hopefully he picks up most of Rubio’s support. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/134 "2016-03-16T02:16:19Z")
Brokered GOP convention is 43% according to Predicit. Trump’s odds of being the nominee? 69%. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/135 "2016-03-16T02:27:08Z")
If Cruz is going to do something in Missouri, it’d better happen quickly. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/136 "2016-03-16T02:38:24Z")
He’s 0.6% behind, but it’s the congressional districts that matter there. Cruz can still win more delegates even if he loses Missouri depending on where his support was. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/137 "2016-03-16T02:56:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He’s 0.6% behind, but it’s the congressional districts that matter there. Cruz can still win more delegates even if he loses Missouri depending on where his support was. 0.1 percent now; some 300 votes out of 300,000. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/138 "2016-03-16T02:58:28Z")
Trump “officially” at the halfway-point to the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/139 "2016-03-16T03:07:02Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Trump “officially” at the halfway-point to the nomination. Something like a little bit pregnant . . . :eek: It’s Alive! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/140 "2016-03-16T03:10:13Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Arnold is NOT popular in California. When he left office, he had the lowest support of any Governor ever. Second that; good actor, awful governor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=8)