# March 15th Primaries (Not-as-Super Tuesday) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 15, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055 "2016-03-15T12:08:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/141 "2016-03-16T03:10:53Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > 0.1 percent now; some 300 votes out of 300,000. Roughly 0.3% / 2,400 up for Trump now. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/142 "2016-03-16T03:11:13Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Trump “officially” at the halfway-point to the nomination. He’s one hundred percent of the way to the nomination. Oh, you mean technically, with actual facts of things that have factually happened so far… Well, no, not yet then, you’re right…but he’s gonna get it. For sure. I predicted it before any primaries even started. I said he’ll win it, for sure…and he’s gonna win it. For sure. Trump has already been selected as the nomination, the rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet (or are hoping against hope it doesn’t happen). I don’t like it either, but it’s just what’s going to happen, I fear. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/143 "2016-03-16T03:12:29Z")
I still say it doesn’t happen unless he can win a majority of delegates, which doesn’t look that likely right now. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/144 "2016-03-16T03:16:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I still say it doesn’t happen unless he can win a majority of delegates, which doesn’t look that likely right now. You can hope - but I predict that if he loses in a contested convention, Trump will bolt and mount a third-party bid. Yes, I know he said he wouldn’t, no, I don’t believe him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/145 "2016-03-16T03:18:58Z")
How would he get on the ballot? You can start the process as late as July? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/146 "2016-03-16T03:21:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > How would he get on the ballot? You can start the process as late as July? Okay, I could well be wrong on that - good point. I haven’t studied up on the eligibility rules, I will confess. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/147 "2016-03-16T03:31:51Z")
The reason I’d heard about it was because there’s a Never Trump movement thinking about mounting a third party challenge to HIM with a mainstream Republican. But now is about as late as they can begin the process and have any chance of success. Maybe Trump could start later with his better resources, but he hasn’t shown much of an inclination to spend any money and getting on the ballot ain’t cheap. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/148 "2016-03-16T03:33:18Z")
I believe Texas and Ohio have to be started by May at the latest but the rest can come later. I suspect we’ll know by May if Trump is going to cinch it or not. There’s zero good outcome from a contested convention. Maybe the GOP can wrest the ballot away from Trump (and for who… Cruz?) but I’d expect a very depressed November turnout if that happens and you have a lot of primary voters feeling like the nomination was stolen from their candidate by the party machine. Edit: Texas is May and you need 80,000 signatures so you can’t wait until the last minute. [Here’s a run-down](http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/18/trump-can-probably-run-a-third-party-campaign-but-he-shouldnt/) of the issues with mounting a third party campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/149 "2016-03-16T03:38:57Z")
As for a third-party challenge, whether it be Trump or someone effectively running against him, the only thing that will accomplish is to fracture the Republican vote. There’s a small chance it would make Hillary President without a mandate, but I don’t see anything positive happening for the GOP as a result. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/150 "2016-03-16T03:45:03Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > If Trump wins the remaining races tonight, which looks very possible, does he have a path to 1237, or has Kasich’s win stymied him? > > And what about Cruz if he doesn’t win anything tonight? Trump appears to have about 46% of the delegates awarded so far. To get to 1237, he’ll need to pull around 66% of the remaining delegates. Looks tough. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/151 "2016-03-16T04:00:43Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > As for a third-party challenge, whether it be Trump or someone effectively running against him, the only thing that will accomplish is to fracture the Republican vote. There’s a small chance it would make Hillary President without a mandate, I don’t see anything positive happening for the GOP as a result. It could help them in downballot races. Why is Cruz so strong in SW MO? That’s the only part of my state I have never been to. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/152 "2016-03-16T04:06:38Z")
Well, Cruz won in OK & KS which is adjacent so maybe his brand plays well there. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/153 "2016-03-16T04:12:09Z")
Yet another tangent from yours truly: I love how CNN is using NFL Films-style music to try to inject some urgency into a relatively-boring Tuesday night. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/154 "2016-03-16T04:35:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > He’s not wasting his time at all so long as campaigning still gives him a national podium to spread his message. Quite. Sanders has done an amazing job so far. It will be harder to smear Hillary Clinton with the radical left hippie crapola, now that she has defeated an actual socialist. Single payer health care and free college education are now within the Overton window. Obama has received full throated praise. What’s missing is Phase II which needs to involve a larger Progressive Caucus and some district flips away from Republican dead-enders. (And the US has never had a solid set of peacenik think tanks, [CDI excepted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Defense_Information). But there’s little that Sanders can do about that.) ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/155 "2016-03-16T04:44:23Z")
CNN has Clinton with 1541 delegates after tonight. Sanders with 768. Sanders needs take roughly 2 delegates for every one Clinton gets from this point on. I really don’t see the point in him continuing given the uphill battle he now faces. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/156 "2016-03-16T04:49:28Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Well, Cruz won in OK & KS which is adjacent so maybe his brand plays well there. Yeah, it’s mega-church land, like Springfield. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/157 "2016-03-16T04:56:32Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > CNN has Clinton with 1541 delegates after tonight. Sanders with 768. Sanders needs take roughly 2 delegates for every one Clinton gets from this point on. I really don’t see the point in him continuing given the uphill battle he now faces. That includes the super delegates right? Without those included…what does Sanders need to do? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/158 "2016-03-16T05:01:40Z")
MO called for Hillary and Trump. Trump winning by about 1,600 votes, Hillary winning by about 1,500 votes. ETA: [NBC News is calling it “Apparent winner.”](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/MO?hootPostID=866f78d4c10c637f1638268551748382) What the hell does that even mean? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/159 "2016-03-16T05:01:56Z")
With the two counties left to report in Missouri, I predict Trump will win by less than 2000 votes. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/160 "2016-03-16T05:01:59Z")
So Hillary just flipped Missouri with 99% reporting, she’s up by about 1,000 votes and most of the precincts left now are in Jackson County and Hillary has been leading by 7.6% in Jackson County, so there is now a decent likelihood that Bernie loses Missouri and goes 0 for 5. Now, I’m a pure delegate math guy–who wins Missouri matters not at all at this point, but in the court of public opinion 0 for 5 is really bad. The math on Sanders is concerning: 1. He outspent Hillary $12m to $7m today, he appears to have lost possibly all 5 contests. 2. His delegate margin has fallen to 324. If he hits every one of his targets in the 538 “demographic projection” chart between now and the New York primary on 4/19 (and a lot of Bernie supporters are now making the argument that since half of the delegates have been allocated, we’re now just entering the “second primary” this one outside the South) which would involve him beating Clinton in every single one of the states between now and 4/19, he will reduce that margin to 324 to 279, and his “% remaining needed to win” goes up from 58% to 60% (because while he’s closed the margin, another 545 delegates will have been allocated in the interim so even fewer will be left to win to close the rest of the margin. 3. If he continues on after 4/19 and hits his demographic target in _every single state from 4/19 to the end of the campaign_ he still finishes the primary 121.5 delegates down. Keep in mind that in the real voting Bernie has only beaten these demographic targets in 7 elections (CO, OK, VT, KS, ME, IL, MO) 4. Everywhere that Bernie has beaten his demographic expectations, has either been a caucus, or an open primary. Of the 29 contests left, 11 are “closed primaries.” I don’t know, I think it’s to the point now where it’s almost pointless to consider seriously following the Dem race. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=9)