Rubio has gone into substantially positive territory on favorables:
http://pollingreport.com/r2.htm#Rubio
He now stands at 39-25.
The buzz seems to be that Trump and Carson are approaching the trainwreck stage, Bush is circling the drain and Cruz is offputtingly crazy to all but the extreme fringe, so Rubio (and, behind him, Christie) are the likely beneficiaries. I doubt Christie can make up the ground unless Rubio has a meltdown soon, so Marco may well go the distance.
How often do people get fired from the military for not doing their jobs well?
That isn’t a rhetorical question; I honestly don’t know the answer. But my impression is that even general discharges are usually for reasons related to conduct rather than job performance.
Cruz is actually now in positive territory as well. Trump and Bush are in extremely negative territory, Carson is the most popular candidate in the country.
Given the rather hefty levers superior officers and NCOs wield to get people to do their jobs, probably not many. PT, kitchen duty, collective punishment(which makes your better performing peers hate you), and demotions work pretty well.
Santorum was popular once. So was Cain. So was Gingrich. Today’s news is tomorrow’s chip paper, as the British say.
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None of the people you cited have been as popular as Rubio and Carson are. More like where Cruz is now, and I agree that Cruz is probably headed back down.
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Their popularity was very short lived. Santorum and Cain were in positive territory for less than 2 months. Gingrich was never actually popular. As a well known figure already, he had built in negatives that he never overcame.
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You know who else was popular? Ronald Reagan, BIll Clinton, Barack Obama…
All of whom were/are great orators. Carson…is not. Not even remotely. I suspect that if he wins Iowa the amplified media scrutiny will not serve him well.
You’ll need a cite for that. Rubio’s not that popular, for one thing – 39 is not great. Neither is Carson, for that matter – at various times in the past, both Obama and Hillary have been far, far more popular than both. Not that it really matters this early.
And Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Sarah Palin…
Carson’s likeable. Oratory is not the key to likeability. It does help with messaging. Rubio is capable of being a great speaker and is also likeable and has a great biography.
Yeah…remind me how his SOTU response went down again?
Rubio has a +14 spread though, which is pretty significant.
http://pollingreport.com/r2.htm#Rubio
Cain peaked at +11, and it was very brief, since he was a dirtbag with women. I know people say Cain was a flash in the pan, but it’s not fair to compare any candidate to Cain since it’s quite possible Cain would have been Romney’s main competitor had he not been well, a dirtbag.
http://www.pollingreport.com/c.htm
Santorum peaked at +3 and some pollsters didn’t ever find him in positive territory:
http://www.pollingreport.com/S-Z.htm#Santorum
Rubio and Carson at +14 and +24 respectively are more popular and it won’t be long before we find out if they have more staying power. Carson already has more staying power, actually, being positive the entire time he’s been polled and only growing more popular. Rubio is new to positive territory but he’s seen pretty remarkable improvement in an environment where almost all candidates from both sides are in negative territory.
As of right now, the only candidates viewed more positively than negatively are Rubio, Carson, Cruz, and Sanders. And Sanders’ rating is only about as good as Cruz’s.
I’m trying to remember - wasn’t there someone else who quit his Senate seat midway thru his first term? I thought that had something to do with a Presidental run as well.
Of course, quitting is much better than not running for re-election, which is what Rubio is doing, so it probably doesn’t have much to do with the situation. And of course missing 65% of your votes is nothing, while missing 25% is serious.
Rubio seems sane, (but way too conservative for my taste). Carson seems absolutely insane to me. I don’t like him, I don’t respect him, I don’t trust him.
The biggest problem for Rubio is comparisons to Obama. Democrats are pretty cynical to use such attacks against him since they didn’t think any of this stuff was a problem when their chosen one was running, but that doesn’t mean the attacks don’t have merit. Marco Rubio is not ready to be President and apparently he was only using the Senate as a springboard.
Not this early. It’s mostly meaningless, especially when so many aren’t paying attention (and so many are “who?” for Rubio).
I don’t think this is “quite possible” at all – it was extremely unlikely, just like Bachmann and Gingrich’s brief lead meant nearly nothing.
Actually it will be a long time before we know if they have real staying power – remember the 538 webchat from this morning? Did you see Nate’s graph? A “long time” this early is pretty meaningless compared to a long time once the actual contests start. If Carson or Rubio are still > +15 or so in the last few weeks before Iowa, it might just start to mean something.
We’re getting close. I’m really starting to think that Rubio is going to be the next President though. I hope he knows what he’s getting into.
Is that going into your Predictions by Adaher list yet?
He might win the nomination. I can’t see how he beats Secretary Clinton.
Nope, not yet. I am getting close to predicting that Clinton won’t be the next President, however. I just need Trump and Cruz to go away.
I will predict though that Clinton will fall to Rubio if he’s the nominee.