Mars^H^H^H^HChina Needs Women!

Great Debates
21

I find your tone insulting. No, sorry, your word is not the end of anything and other people may disagree with you. Even if everybody agrees with the statement that “China cannot threaten Taiwan without a huge navy” that is not the end of any discussion. You seem to imply China does not have and can never have a huge navy. And why can China not threaten Taiwan with missiles or even nuclear bombs?

That is totally unrealistic and it is never going to happen. No way. You might see a small unbalance but never that much. And a small unbalance is not going to have any appreciable effect in anything.

In the USA there are plenty of people who are single just because they did not find the right person or because they prefer to be single. To the individual it makes no difference whether he did not find that person because that person does not exist or because she exists but he could not find her. The fact is many people are quite single and lead happy and fulfilling lives.

A man might want to marry Sandra Bullock but he might settle for something less. Women live longer than men so there would always be older women available.

Men usually marry younger women so all you have to do is decrease that average age difference by 2 - 3 years and you are increasing the potential brides by much more than any unbalance in sex ratios.

There are plenty of single women and men in China and everywhere else and the reason they are not getting married is because they don’t want to, not because they can’t.

22

China has 109 men for every 100 women.

From CIA factbook:

0-14 MALE 155,473,656 FEMALE: 141,737,406
15-64 461,223,219 433,154,970
65- 44,954,643 50,431,574
So, its about 660 million males vs. 625 million females. Unless you live in a rural area, you can only have one kid, period. Someone from a “rural” area can have two, if the first kid is female. If the first kid is male, then no more kids. If an only child female marries an only child male, then this couple can have two kids regardless of gender.

Now, if a woman has five different husbands, she can have five kids. The law is one child, one couple.

India will overtake China in population in about 20 years or less. China has as many children under 14 than the USA has people. China has about 4.3 times the people. Although China is about the size of the US, about 13.3 percent of the land is suitable for farming. A lot of China is wasteland. Deserts and mountains. The desert is growing by leaps and bounds and the government is trying desperately to stop its movement.

There is nothing of value in Tibet except that it is a strategic stronghold. The northwestern province of Xinjiang only has 6 million people. Most of the people live within a 1000 miles of the ocean (in a country about 3000 miles across East to West). The government is trying to get people to move west.

Homosexuality is known by the term Tongzhi, which used to mean “comrade” in Mao’s time.

The government is communist, but the market is very, very capitalist. No boundries and few rules. If you have the right connections with people in power (guanxi) then you can do whatever the hell you want to do in China. Democracy would not be a good thing here, because China would implode. A big problem is unemployment. There are 400 million farm workers in China, where only a 100 million are needed. The government is selling off state owned enterprises to private companies which lays offs a lot of people. Its pretty dog eat dog in China.

Unmarried men will join the army, but the PLA is already huge and nuclear to boot. No one is going to start a war with China. The PLA are cutting troop strength.Taiwan (as well as Korea) can be a flashpoint to WWIII, but the Taiwanese and the Chinese trade with each other all the time and many Taiwanese come to mainland China to work and start businesses, so invasion of Formosa would be an awful backstep for China in the short as well as the long run.

The China issue can be discussed forever.

23

According to the CIA factbook these are the female / male population ratios by age and country:


By age:                 China         USA
0-14 years              0.95         0.91
15-64 years            1.00         0.94

Which shows the gender gap in China is getting smaller, not larger. This only makes sense as China girls are valued more as China moves away from traditional prejudice. So let us not make up theories which go against reality.

>> Unless you live in a rural area, you can only have one kid, period.

No, NOT period. That’s like saying that in America you cannot speed. Period. There are, in fact, many couples who have more than one child. You only have to be willing to either hide the fact or pay the price.

>> The government is communist, but the market is very, very capitalist. No boundries and few rules.

I agree but the word is “boundaries”. Sorry but it is one of my pet peeves.

>> so invasion of Formosa would be an awful backstep for China in the short as well as the long run.

I agree and let’s hope it does not come to that but in history many governments have done things which in hindsight were pretty stupid and backfired. They just have to look like they have a reasonable chance of success at the time. If the interior situation starts getting bad the Chinese government might unite the Chinese against a common exterior enemy and Taiwan has all the chances of becoming that enemy if it came to that. And Chinese youth is already brainwashed enough that they would be itching for a fight. Leaders can take their people where ever they want. Just look at how President Bush has so much support in his Iraqi adventure with most of the American people believeing things which are not true or even said (like Saddam Hussein being behind 9/11).

>> The China issue can be discussed forever.

That’s for sure but I’d rather discuss realistic scenarios than discuss what will happen when the female to male ratio drops to 67%. it’s not going to happen. Period. (Oops, see what you made me do? :wink: )

24

Prison? :smiley:

But seriously:

This business of fewer women in China has been in the news in past years. I recall a story a number of years ago (no, I don’t have a cite other than NBC or PBS news in the early 90’s) that the ratio of young girls to boys was too small, outside of two standard deviations from the expected average due to random chance.

The only explanation was that since only one child was allowed, and it’s no secret that the Chinese prefer male offspring, girls were being either routinely aborted or killed in the crib.

Thus, it is not impossible that the ratio in the breeding-age population will become severely unbalanced over time.

The REAL problem in China, however, is the laws they have enshrining the ancient custom of the young’s responsibility to the old, requiring them to support parents, grandparents, and whatever great-grandparents are around.

This was no problem for the elderly when they had the ten children each of their ten children all pitching in, but soon, the unluckiest of the single-child generation will have to care for 14 post-retirement adults by themselves.

Come to think of it, does a married Chinese male have to care for his wife’s elders too? In that case, I think you’ll see a sharp decline in marriage rates there, and an increase in single-mother households. These women may try to flout the law and have multiple children so they do not end up destitute like their own parents will.

The most extreme thing I could see happening is that China institutes a woman’s right to multiple husbands, to spread the burden of caring for all those elders.

25

LAWS ?? China has laws requiring the young cre for the old? I’d like to see some proof of this. In any case, Asian societies do have a more tightly knit family structure and I consider that something positive. I think it is a digrace that in western countries many people will pretty much abandon their parents to the care of the state.

And comparing a country with a few percentage points disparity in male to female ratios to a prison is just plain ludicrous. As I said, there are plenty of women available if they just go for older women. Not everybody gets what they want, in China or in the USA. Most men would prefer to marry a thinner woman who is a bit older than a fat woman who is a bit younger. We could now construct a theory about America’s future now that obesity is rising the way it is. A possible theory is that this will lead to many American men seeking Asian brides which will result in a shortage of women in Asia but it will be balanced by skinny Asian men marrying the fat American women who cannot find American husbands. This will result in … who knows. . . this is too silly to be continued.

26

The problem with not just China but the entire Third World, is the collision of modern technology with traditional cultural values. In the West our societies are the result of over 300 years of social adjustment (not always smoothly either) to changes in our way of life due to economic and technological innovation. And at that, innovation that was created by us, not imported or forced on us by a foreign culture.

A 60/40 sex ratio is completely unsustainable, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen for one generation before a country that allowed it to occur learned it’s lesson the hard way.

Or take as an example any of scores of fictional societies depicted in science-fiction stories. Heinlein had one story that depicted a future in which slavery had made a comeback and was actually made possible by, and fitted in with, a technologically advanced society. One of the great unknowns of the future is just what sort of societies might now be possible using means such as birth control that weren’t available previously.

One can envision a society with an 7-1 m-f ratio, based on what might be called the “breeding slave” scenerio: seven half-brothers pool their money to buy a wife. She bears each of them a son and then maybe one girl to replace herself. These seven half-brothers then repeat the process when they grow to adulthood. This wouldn’t have been possible earlier in history, but given sex selection and a low infant mortality rate, it would be workable now. Given the extreme misogyny of traditional Indian and Chinese society, I would not care to bet that it’s impossible.

27

Since the following paragraphs contradict this, I should clarify that I meant unsustainable by everyone presuming that they can abort their female children but someone else will provide daughters for their sons to marry. My main point was that you can’t just presume that it’ll never happen.

28

I’d expect to see an increase in the rates of prostitution, since it would be a seller’s market.

29

[/bold]
First off, I haven’t seen anything that comes even close to a 60% male - 40% female split. The CIA factbook notwithstanding (would like to see the underlying data and veracity thereof). Certainly there is an unhealthy imbalance brewing but I haven¡¯t seen projections anywhere close to what you are citing. Certainly, none of my local peers are complaining about such a ratio.

Once upon a time in China there was a one child policy that was very strictly implemented across Han China (minorities were exempt). That has relaxed to a degree in certain areas and conditions. In the large cities, generally speaking it is still a one child policy. However the punishment for a second child is generally speaking pretty mild, although most families in the cities now opt for one child out of choice and largely because of the cost of raising kids in China has increased dramatically.

In the countryside, it is still officially a one child policy, but often times a blind eye is turned to the second child regardless of if the first is a boy or a girl. I have been told by residents of Shandong province that it is now allowed to have a second child if the first is a girl.

I also know of a woman from Anhui province who was fined several years wages for having a second child, and had her home torn down for having a third (and this was just 2-3 years ago).

From personal experience, if one wants to see a doctor in Shanghai about a pregnancy, you first have to have had a checkup and approval from the neighborhood pregnancy bureau.

[/bold]

[/bold]Homosexuality is generally known as “tongxinglian” eg homosexual. Common slang is tuzi" or rabbit. The term “Tongzhi” means comrade and not homosexual. There may be some people who use tongzhi in such a manner, but news anchors, mass media and the common person use it as comrade.

[/bold]

U

[/bold]

Agreed.
)

30

Arghh, premature post before preview and fixing coding. :frowning:

As for Tibet, you are correct it is a strategic stronghold. There are natural resources that are being exploited as well as the tourist income. Allowing Tibet to go independant would add fuels to the independance drives of Xinjiang, Taiwan, Inner Mongolia, etc.

Given the imbalance of males to females, the Han Chinese could learn from the sometimes Tibetan practice of Polyandry, where brothers share one wife and inheritance is passed through the wife. :slight_smile:

31

And so, nobody bothers to deal with the facts and everybody continues to write science fiction. Nobody detected the figures in my earlier post were reversed. Why deal with boring numbers when you can just make up all sorts of imaginary scenarios?


By age:                  USA        China
0-14 years              0.95         0.91
15-64 years             1.00         0.94

The ratio of 0.91 in children today will convert to about 0.94 ~ 0.95 by the time they are adults (girls survive into adulthood in greater numbers) so the fact is that the ratio is not changing in favor of men no matter what sensationalist articles may be saying. Let us please stick with facts and not post brainfarts. If any one says the ratio is changing in favor of men please post some convincing evidence but please stop posting any more science fiction.

32

'Twould explain a lot about the behavior of the Islamic Middle East, wouldn’t it, where polygamy is practiced widely.

33

Re: the assertion made earlier in this thread that no one would stand around and watch China invade a foreign country. Seems to be that it’s already happened once. Umm, Tibet, anyone?

I think an invasion of India would be a real dick-in-the-pencil-sharpener exercise for China, as we would undoubtedly provide arms and air support to India, and India is one of the few countries in the world capable of putting as many folks in the field as China. Siberia might be a little easier for China if Russia can’t whip up support from its former Soviet states. But given the real possibility that a China that easily swallowed Siberia might soon hunger for a little Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan for dessert, I bet Russia WOULD get support, and Russia still has some mighty fine tanks and plenty of people to fire them.

Burma might be a much tastier target. Run by a bunch of genocidal colonels, and nobody in the world really loves the bastids, plenty of arable land, not much military capability compared to China … mmmmm. Thailand’s a little more problematical due to the Vietnam war, but Burma … tasty, tasty.

And of course Vietnam has already proven what a fun place it can be for invaders. Be funny if WE iended up gving arms to the Vietnamese in the face of a Chinese invasion. Laos would be easier but would undoubtedly get both Vietnam’s and Thailand’s back hair up.

But Burma. Burma looks tasty. I don’t know a lot about Burma except for the fact that it’s run by a bunch of fascist colonels who stifle dissent and took a good shot at genocide agaisnt some rebellions tribesmen a few years ago, i.e., they stink like Saddam Hussein. They just seem real vulnerable to me.

34

It once had a huge navy, six hundred years ago, but those huge ships of Zheng He’s fleet ended up rotting on the beaches.

And I’d say that in the present day, no, China can never have a navy of meaningful size in its efforts to intimidate Taiwan, since the US Seventh Fleet alone is more than its match.

That’s a charming proposition, and I’m glad you find it comforting, but I’d direct you to the words of Chairman Mao:

“The atom bomb is a paper tiger which the U.S. reactionaries use to scare people. It looks terrible, but in fact it isn’t. Of course, the atom bomb is a weapon of mass slaughter, but the outcome of a war is decided by the people, not by one or two new types of weapon.”

People like these, for instance.

Firing conventional missiles at Taiwan would only ensure that the island declares formal indepencence–and worldwide sympathy for its plight would foster swift recognition on the part of many countries, not least the US.

And as for the idea that Beijing would kill millions of their putative Taiwan compatriots with nuclear weapons–well, if I were Chinese, I would find it quite insulting for you to suggest that my countrymen are that insane.

35

No, the Chinese have NO history of leaders who are utterly indifferent to slaughtering people by the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

::rolleyes::

36

Some people might find comfort in knowing the American Reich will last a thousand years and the American Seventh Fleet will always be there to protect them. I am not one of those who believes that though and by the prospect of things I do believe the USA is not and will not be omnipotent forever. I believe it is very possible that the Chinese armed forces will develop exponentially in the coming decades to the point where they could be a match to the USA. It could also happen that the USA could find itseld mired and tangled in a series of conflicts (oh, say, for instance, in Muslim countries) which would prevent it from intervening in Taiwan and China would take advantage of the situation.

Now you sometimes hear the Chinese government rattling their sabers towards Taiwan and many Chinese young people are very willing to fight for that cause. The problem is not whether it is a good idea – it obviously is not a good idea. The problem is that sometimes leaders who get the masses into a frenzy to deflect from their own domestic problems then find they cannot turn back without being devoured. As Winston Churchill said: “They are riding tigers they dare not dismount”. Once you excite the masses you have to keep leading them forward or they will devour you.

There are plenty of scenarios and I am not making any predictions. 15 - 25 years ago nobody could have predicted anything of what’s happeneing today. The Soviet Union was the feared enemy. The USA was Saddam Hussein’s best friend. China was just coming out of the Cultural Revolution. Things change and nobody knows what will happen with China in the next 25 years. As Evil Captor points out, the Chinese leaders think nothing of sacrificing Chinese people by the thousands if it suits their purposes. Heck, leaders of any country would do it but the Chinese much more so. To say leaders never do anything irrational just goes against history. Leaders do irrational things all the time and Chinese leaders are no exception. Chinese history between 1949 and 1976 is the paradigm of irrationality.

My point was only that ending a post with "period. End of story"is presumtuous and rude. Nobody’s opinion is the end of all opinions.

37

Vietnam does not need the help of the US to kick a little invading Chinese butt. Reference back to 1979.

38

I think the reason that Siberia was posited was that it’s rich in natural resources (think gold, forest, oil, fisheries, etc). The generally harsh climate can make it a lot of work to extract these resources, but they are there. Burma, AFAIK, is not a land of vast resources. Laos is incredibly resource poor. Cambodia is a similar situation. (Note I ignore poppy cultivation in these examples, and methamphetamine production as well). Thailand still has some nice forests in the south, but teak production there has been halted since the resource has been so depleted and recovers so slowly. Thailands chief export is probably rice. Vietnam and China have a long history of invading each other (yes, Vietnam has invaded China, or parts of China, many times over the years). And it still has a nice, tough standing army.

39

All this is fine and well but the OP is about the female / male ratio diminishing in China and I have not seen any credible evidence that it is, in fact, happening. The evidence I have shows that it is not happening. Unless someone posts some credible evidence that the ratio is, indeed, diminishing I have to say the whole exercise is just a masturbatory fantasy.

40

You call THAT a masturbatory fantasy? And I thought I was kinky …