# Martin O'Malley for President thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 31, 2015, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241 "2015-05-31T05:33:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/162 "2015-10-14T05:54:31Z")
Well, given that he was at 1% it’s hard to see how the debates don’t help him at least a little, despite a mediocre performance. Now a lot of Democrats know who he is, so there’s a choice other than the dishonest candidate and the socialist candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/163 "2015-10-14T06:46:27Z")
So at best that gets him up to 5%. yeehaw ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/164 "2015-10-14T07:18:26Z")
It’s a start. He at least needed to get seen as the “break glass in case of emergency if Biden doesn’t run” candidate and I think he at least met that threshold. O’Malley is the only option you have if you’re a Democrat who doesn’t like liars or socialists. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/165 "2015-10-14T13:14:54Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I think Biden missed his window. Yes, there are no voids left to fill. Clinton’s no longer vulnerable on the e-mail bullshit that the Beltway culture had created and sustained, thanks to McCarthy and now Sanders too, so there’s no more need for a backup plan. There is no reason for Biden to run now, and no articulatable reason for anyone to want him to, either. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/166 "2015-10-14T13:22:53Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > He quickly dumps his Va. state campaign chair after the guy is caught with kiddy porn: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/10/politics/martin-omalley-fires-state-campaign-chair-after-child-porn-arrest/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/10/politics/martin-omalley-fires-state-campaign-chair-after-child-porn-arrest/index.html) The decisive leadership we need! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/167 "2015-10-14T15:10:19Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yes, there are no voids left to fill. Clinton’s no longer vulnerable on the e-mail bullshit that the Beltway culture had created and sustained, thanks to McCarthy and now Sanders too, so there’s no more need for a backup plan. There is no reason for Biden to run now, and no articulatable reason for anyone to want him to, either. So she should be judged honest by the electorate any day now! See her favorables increase! She might even get as high as 42%! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/168 "2015-10-14T15:29:50Z")
How’s that free fall going so far? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/169 "2015-10-14T15:33:38Z")
Ask Nate Silver. He called it “death spiral”. > **[Live Coverage Of The First Democratic Debate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/first-democratic-debate-election-2016/)** > > Live blogging the first 2016 Democratic debate, hosted by CNN and Facebook in Las Vegas, where Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders face off for the first time. Seriously, are you actually noticing the polls? What about the polling suggests to you that Clinton hasn’t been in freefall for quite some time? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/170 "2015-10-14T15:44:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Ask Nate Silver. He called it “death spiral”. > > [Live Coverage Of The First Democratic Debate | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/first-democratic-debate-election-2016/) Um… your cite? You might want to read it. > [@](#): > > Four weeks ago, I wrote about how Hillary Clinton was stuck in a “poll-deflating feedback loop.” [snip for brevity]. If the cycle continued on beyond a certain point, it would eventually cost her the Democratic nomination. But it probably wouldn’t, I wrote. > > Indeed, since we published that story on Sept. 16, the tone of Clinton’s coverage has changed quite a bit. Instead of almost uniformly negative coverage, Clinton has had a more even mix… [snip for brevity] And guess what? Clinton’s decline in the polls has halted, at least for now, as Harry Enten pointed out earlier tonight. Silver reported on a micro-trend that he expected to end. And it has ended. If that’s the “death spiral” you’ve been so excited about, I hope you’ve got something else to pin your hopes on. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/171 "2015-10-14T15:45:34Z")
Kevin McCarthy may have saved the second Clinton presidency. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/172 "2015-10-14T15:48:46Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Silver reported on a micro-trend that he expected to end. And it has ended. If that’s the “death spiral” you’ve been so excited about, I hope you’ve got something else to pin your hopes on. You’re arguing against a claim I never made: that her free fall was ending in her certain defeat. However, she has been in free fall. There’s just no way to demonstrate that this is wrong using actual data. Her favorables are down 20 points. Her general election polling is down 15 points. Her primary polling is down 25 points. She’s still the most likely to win the nomination because she started out with such big leads. But she’s now trailing Republican opponents in the general election consistently(and she’s the only Democrat to be trailing), and her “insurmountable” primary lead is now eminently surmountable. That’s otherwise known as a free fall, or death spiral, as Silver put it. And there is no sign that it has actually hit bottom yet. As Silver points out, her decline has halted, but she has not yet recovered. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/173 "2015-10-14T16:09:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s otherwise known as a free fall, or death spiral, as Silver put it. And there is no sign that it has actually hit bottom yet. As Silver points out, her decline has halted, but she has not yet recovered. I (and Silver) wouldn’t call it a free fall (more like a moderate decline – and the death spiral was hypothetical, not actual yet), and there are in fact signs that she has hit bottom – her latest polling has been trending, slightly, upwards. As for the general election polling, I think it’s worth as much as it was at this point in '07 or '11 – which is to say it’s worth nothing. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/174 "2015-10-14T16:11:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What about the polling suggests to you that Clinton hasn’t been in freefall for quite some time? Um, all of it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/175 "2015-10-14T16:13:20Z")
Double digit declines across the board are a moderate decline? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/176 "2015-10-14T16:16:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s otherwise known as a free fall, or death spiral, as Silver put it. And there is no sign that it has actually hit bottom yet. As Silver points out, her decline has halted, but she has not yet recovered. Silver pointed out the risk of continued poll decline if Hillary’s news coverage continued to skew negative (which he wasn’t forecasting). The tone of her news coverage has improved, and surprise surprise, her poll decline has halted. Of course you’re free to imagine that her polls will drop in response to favorable media coverage. That’s one theory, but one that disagrees with the “death spiral” theory (as well as basic common sense). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/177 "2015-10-14T16:18:11Z")
With Hillary Clinton, favorable media coverage is a very fleeting thing. Especially since she denies them access. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/178 "2015-10-14T16:31:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Double digit declines across the board are a moderate decline? When it’s from “massive, ginormous lead” to “very large lead”, then “yes”. The email stuff hit her a bit, and Sanders’ rise has hit her a bit, and she’s been slowly recovering in the most recent polls. But if it were truly a “free-fall”, then Silver would have her a lot lower than his ~80-90% or so to win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/179 "2015-10-14T16:40:56Z")
That’s still a freefall. A steep decline is a steep decline. The fact that she could afford a steep decline because of her historic lead does not make it any less a steep decline. You should have spun for Bush 41 in 1992. “His approval has taken a moderate hit since the Gulf War.” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/180 "2015-10-14T16:47:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s still a freefall. A steep decline is a steep decline. The fact that she could afford a steep decline because of her historic lead does not make it any less a steep decline. > > You should have spun for Bush 41 in 1992. “His approval has taken a moderate hit since the Gulf War.” One thing about “free-falls” is that they don’t end. This decline may have just ended, and may even be reversing, according to the latest polls. McCarthy’s inadvertent honesty may have killed Hillary’s decline. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241/181 "2015-10-14T16:53:48Z")
Unlikely. Things that reflect badly on your opponents don’t necessarily reflect well on you. The temporary ceasefire from the media could simply be because they have other things to report on now thanks to Mccarthy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-omalley-for-president-thread/721241.md?page=10)