# Martin/Zimmerman: humble opinions and speculation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 18, 2012, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125 "2012-04-18T04:41:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 158
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3142 "2012-07-06T00:24:11Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > When did your hypothetical end? You threw in the denial part after you’d already started asking questions about whether the state’s case would be different. I said his story is that he didn’t know what happened, but that he claimed to know he didn’t shoot Martin. He was silent _at the scene_ (because he didn’t have a lawyer, if you must know that detail to understand why I put that in there), but later he reveals that his official story is “I don’t know what happened, but I didn’t kill anyone”. Not seeing why this even matters, to be honest. All you really need to know is that he’s not making an affirmative defense nor pleading guilty. > [@](#): > > IMO (non-lawyerly) opinion, the state would have a much easier case to prove had Zimmerman kept his mouth shut. There was plenty of evidence to tie to the shooting, including his 911 call, his gun, the witnesses and the police who arrived on the scene within moments? minutes? of the shooting. Without a claim of self defense he probably would have been arrested on the spot, and none of us would ever have even heard of this case. Okay, but why? Objectively speaking, the State’s burden is really not any different regardless of what story the defense comes up with. They still have to show that the guy in handcuffs committed a specific crime as defined by certain legal statutes. If Zimmerman denied shooting Martin as opposed to asserted self-defense, would the quality and quantity of evidence necessary for demonstrating 2nd degree murder be the same, assuming the jury for both scenarios are equally objective? If the State succeeds in destroying Zimmerman’s credibility, then the jury can reject the defense’s claim of self-defense. With that off the table, I need someone to explain why Zimmerman’s case wouldn’t mirror my hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3143 "2012-07-06T01:15:44Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Completely incorrect. In an ordinary 2nd degree murder, they have to show that the accused committed an act, and did so with a certain mental state. > > Here, the accused admits the act, but alleges the existence of other facts which would make that act legal; the state must disprove those other facts. **Bricker** , in general, what level of certainty does the prosecution and defense need to prove? Under US law, the defendant is assumed to be innocent unless proven guilty. The prosecution must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant committed the act and did so with a certain mental state. If the defendant claims he didn’t commit the act, then the defense only needs to show there is uncertainly which introduces at least a reasonable doubt. If the defense can cast doubt on the state of mind but not the act, then would the defendant be found guilty of manslaughter, or does that depend on other factors? However, if the defendant admits the act, but claims self defense, what becomes respective burdens of proof? Is the default that it is assumed that it is not self defense, and the defense must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that it was, or is the default that it is assumed that it was self defense and that the prosecution must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that it wasn’t? Or do they both just introduce the evidence and the jury or judge weights the evidence? How does this translate for Zimmerman? Without attempting to actually weight the evidence, which can’t be done now since we don’t have it all, what must the prosecution and defense prove? Zimmerman has asserted certain facts. The prosecutor apparently doesn’t believe them as she has filed second degree murder charges. In court, what will it actually take to either convict him or find him not guilty? For example, if the jury, or judge if he chooses to not have a jury trial, finds his story to not be credible, what levels of proof become required? ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3144 "2012-07-06T02:05:16Z")
I am sitting in a jail cell. Someone is dead and I’m the one everyone is looking at for the crime: These are the pieces of evidence against me: 1. Someone saw me following the victim moments before he was found dead. The police found my sneaker tracks intermingled with the victim’s in the mud, suggesting that I had been following close behind. Someone who happened to see me told the police that I looked very angry. She also told them that I was running, though she never saw anyone being chased. 2. The victim flagged down a passerby and said, “There’s a crazy woman chasing me. I’m scared!” This also happened moments before he was found dead. 3. The body was found right next to a weapon registered in my name, with my fingerprints. When the police brought me in for questioning, I wrote down on a slip of paper, “I refuse to answer any questions. Please call my lawyer.” Because I watch enough TV to know I don’t have to answer their stupid questions. But they put me in the slammer anyway. Punk-ass bitches. 4. They just interviewed my friends, who said that I had seen someone fitting the victim’s description vandalizing my car. Apparently, I had been very angry about it. I was blowing off steam and said I would kill whoever had done it. Questions for the law-inclined: 1. What am I likely to be charged with, given the facts in the case? 2. If I tell my lawyer that it was self-defense, how does that change things? They can’t PROVE it wasn’t self-defense, right? No one actually saw the fight go down. Apologies for restating what’s already been asked by others. But I think it’s a good question and I don’t want it to get lost in the back-and-forth. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3145 "2012-07-06T11:45:13Z")
I want that answered too, monstro. Every so often, someone like **Bricker** will drop by and intimate that there is lack of available evidence showing 2nd degree murder. But I can’t imagine such a prognosis if Zimmerman had simply denied shooting Martin, though. I suspect that all the hand wringing about insufficient proof for the elements for 2nd degree murder would not be there, even though the crime itelf would be no different. If Z had denied shooting Martin, think about how we’d likely interpret the wounds to his head. Instead of thinking they were inflicted via assault, we’d probably be inclined to interpret them as defensive wounds inflicted by Martin trying to get away from a murderer. Funny huh? Why is that? It is only because the killler is claiming self-defense that what would normally be perceived as defensive wounds are now being looked as signs of an assault. But whatever evidence for murder that exists in a alternate universe where Zimmerman denies killing Martin also exists in this universe with him claiming self-defense. It just looks different because of bias. People are looking at the evidence through the filter of his claim, rather than looking at it objectively. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3146 "2012-07-06T12:04:21Z")
I think people are assuming that even if the prosecution can convince a jury that his self-defense is baloney, that doesn’t mean Zimmerman is guilty of anything. Like the prosecution has to have irrefutable, unassailable evidence of Zimmerman killing Martin in cold blood, or he walks. That’s craziness. I seriously doubt Zimmerman is going to walk away from this. ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3147 "2012-07-06T12:31:18Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > That’s craziness. I seriously doubt Zimmerman is going to walk away from this. Two words: Casey Anthony. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3148 "2012-07-06T12:40:08Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Two words: Casey Anthony. If Casey Anthony had told the court she’d killed her daughter but it was self-defense, she’d be sitting in prison right now. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3149 "2012-07-06T12:44:15Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > If Casey Anthony had told the court she’d killed her daughter but it was self-defense, she’d be sitting in prison right now. I donno. My toddler puts up a hell of a fight. ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3150 "2012-07-06T12:57:46Z")
> [@Magiver;](#): > > It’s hard to wade through yet another conspiracy theory but his 911 narrative starts with his truck parked near the cut-through. He initially instructs the police to drive past the club house to meet him. > So starting at 00:42 Martin is already at the corner of the houses looking back at Zimmerman. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you suffer from some severe reading disorder, because you are completely wrong on all of this. At the start of the call, GZ says he sees a suspicious guy, and he gives an address: 111 Retreat View Circle. If, as you state, he is already parked by the cut-through at this time, the address he is giving has to be where the ‘suspicious guy’ is. That is the address for the Clubhouse. He actually gets the address wrong, because the address is 1111, but the dispatcher confirms just a few seconds later: > [@](#): > > 911 dispatcher: OK, you said that’s 1111 Retreat View or 111? > Zimmerman: That’s the clubhouse. > 911 dispatcher: **He’s near the clubhouse now**? > Zimmerman: **Yeah** , now he’s coming toward me. He’s got his hands in his waist band. The dispatcher confirms the address is the Clubhouse, he asks if ‘he’ (Martin) is near the clubhouse, and GZ says ‘Yeah’. I don’t know how this could be any clearer. > [@Magiver](#): > > So at 01:03 he’s coming toward Zimmerman and at 2:14 he’s running away. He has plenty of time to walk the distance to Zimmerman’s car. Yes - he has plenty of time if he walks to Zimmermans’ car from the Clubhouse, past the car, and then runs away, which is what appears to happen per the 911 call. Please explain the expanded version in the re-enactment video that has Martin going up the cut-through, coming _back_ to George’s car, circling the car, going back up the cut-through and turning right. We know he turns right, because Zimmerman is definite in where he says Martin went: > [@](#): > > 911 dispatcher: He’s running? **Which way is he running**? > Zimmerman: **Down toward the other entrance of the neighborhood**. [2: 14] > 911 dispatcher: OK, which entrance is that he’s headed towards? > Zimmerman: The back entrance. ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3151 "2012-07-06T13:13:58Z")
There’s a further massive problem with \*\*Magiver’s \*\*take as per above. I wonder if \*\*Magiver \*\*can spot it. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3152 "2012-07-06T13:22:29Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Two words: Casey Anthony. For every Casey Anthony acquittal, we can point to convictions with far less evidence than Zimmerman has against him. Juries are variable and sometimes unpredictable. An acquittal, by itself, doesn’t always mean the evidence was lacking. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3153 "2012-07-06T13:39:04Z")
**[Judge Concludes Zimmerman Was Planning to Flee](http://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-george-zimmerman-prepared-flee-country/story?id=16715647)** > [@](#): > > Zimmerman, whose bail was raised to $1 million, “was preparing to flee to avoid prosecution, but such plans were thwarted,” Judge Kenneth Lester wrote in the bond order released today. > [@](#): > > “It is entirely reasonable for this court to find that, but for the requirement that he be placed on electronic monitoring, the defendant and his wife would have fled the United States with at least $130,000 of other people’s money,” Lester wrote. > > “The defendant also neglected to disclose that he had a valid second passport in his safe deposit box. Notably, together with the passport, the money only had to be hidden for a short time for him to leave the country if the defendant made a quick decision to flee,” the judge wrote. Sounds like Georgie has dug himself a hole to climb out of with this judge. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3154 "2012-07-06T13:59:48Z")
I’m glad the judge acknowledged the gravity of that second passport. To me, that’s bigger deal than the misstated finances. Doesn’t sound like Lester bought into the notion that O’Mara had custody of the passport, either. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3155 "2012-07-06T14:07:21Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > \*\*[Judge Concludes Zimmerman Was Planning to Flee](http://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-george-zimmerman-prepared-flee-country/story?id=16715647)\*\*Sounds like Georgie has dug himself a hole to climb out of with this judge. I disagree with the judge. If Zimmerman wanted to flee, he could have done so in the month before they charged him. I think he was scared and wanted to keep a money cushion for whatever other bad stuff happened. Powerful figures in this country want to (figuratively) lynch him. In hindsight, it was a stupid thing to do, but this guy has turned himself into the police peacefully every time he has been requested or ordered. I see no reason for him to flee. I would release him on his own recognizance. And to answer my own question, he has to post $100k in cash and secure the other $900k in assets. Unless he has some really close friends or that Paypal account gets some more donations, George will be in jail until trial. A million is absurd. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3156 "2012-07-06T14:07:39Z")
In the hearing after it came out about the money and second passport, the judge said he wasn’t concerned about the second passport. I was a little surprised because the recordings showed GZ and his wife were discussing it. Maybe the judge rethought the issue. As many others have mentioned, it couldn’t be good for GZ that it’s the same judge who would be holding the SYG hearing. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3157 "2012-07-06T14:11:57Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > And to answer my own question, he has to post $100k in cash and secure the other $900k in assets. Unless he has some really close friends or that Paypal account gets some more donations, George will be in jail until trial. A million is absurd. No, it’s not. Courts do not like being lied to. He’s lucky that the laws are such that he can get any bail at all. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3158 "2012-07-06T14:15:54Z")
> [@TokyoPlayer](#): > > No, it’s not. Courts do not like being lied to. He’s lucky that the laws are such that he can get any bail at all. He didn’t lie to the court. His wife did. Bail is not supposed to be punitive anyways. It is only to ensure appearance at trial. With GPS monitoring, I don’t think money is needed anymore.. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Mudd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f14d63/32.png) [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3159 "2012-07-06T14:52:08Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > He didn’t lie to the court. His wife did. Lie of omission. > [@](#): > > Bail is not supposed to be punitive anyways. It is only to ensure appearance at trial. With GPS monitoring, I don’t think money is needed anymore.. GPS monitoring doesn’t provide much in the way of deterrent. Knowing that your family will be on the hook in a substantial way if you decide to lam it goes much further to ensuring appearance. Any idiot can get around an ankle bracelet. Zimmerman made it clear that he considered running a viable back up plan -that demands a substantial bond. You might also ask what keeping that plan b says. He obviously isn’t as confident the state can’t touch him as some people are. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3160 "2012-07-06T14:57:04Z")
> [@Larry\_Mudd](#): > > Zimmerman made it clear that he considered running a viable back up plan -that demands a substantial bond. You might also ask what keeping that plan b says. He obviously isn’t as confident the state can’t touch him as some people are. I’m sure that every person out on bond has thought of plan b. Yes, he is an extreme dumbass for talking about it out loud. However, his actions show that he is not planning on going anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2012, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/3161 "2012-07-06T15:21:04Z")
What the heck is wrong with this judge? Z’s attorney took charge of the money right after the first bond hearing. It’s in a trust and Z doesn’t have any direct access to it. Also in the second bond hearing, Z’s attorney had a forensics auditor testify that all the money was accounted for. Z had not tried to hide a escape fund anywhere. After all that this, the crazy judge makes this ruling? I don’t get it. Yes, Z and his wife mislead the court in the first bond hearing. That’s exactly why the attorney had a forensics auditor testify in the 2nd one. So the judge knows he’s hearing the truth. [http://www.wftv.com/news/news/judge-decide-zimmermans-bond-fate-thursday/nPmYZ/](http://www.wftv.com/news/news/judge-decide-zimmermans-bond-fate-thursday/nPmYZ/) > [@](#): > > “It is entirely reasonable for this court to find that, but for the requirement that he be placed on electronic monitoring, the defendant and his wife would have fled the United States with at least $130,000 of other people’s money,” Lester wrote. > > Prosecutors said a website Zimmerman created for his legal defense had raised $135,000 at the time of his first bond hearing. Zimmerman and his wife did not mention the money then, and Shellie Zimmerman even said the couple had limited resources because she was a student and he wasn’t working. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125.md?page=157) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125.md?page=159)