# Martin/Zimmerman: humble opinions and speculation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 18, 2012, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125 "2012-04-18T04:41:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 557
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11123 "2013-06-24T14:40:16Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > each selection from the jury pool _ **is a random event** _. Why would you think that? It’s about as non-random as it gets. ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11124 "2013-06-24T14:41:28Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Anyone interested to learn that Zimmerman had been taking martial arts fighting classes for 18 months prior to the shooting? Do you have a cite on that? If that comes out, that could be a strike against him, if the defense doesn’t have it thrown out. Thank god, I hope you’re right. ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11125 "2013-06-24T14:47:30Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Why would you think that? It’s about as non-random as it gets. **Terr** , that’s precisely the point I’ve been trying to highlight. Thank you. This obviously was not a random event (p=0.04), in fact, we have a 96% chance to believe \*bias \*was involved in jury selection. At least we know Emmett Till and Trayvon Martin have something in common: the outright bias and statistical improbability of the selection of their juries. - Honesty ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11126 "2013-06-24T14:49:16Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > **Terr** , that’s precisely the point I’ve been trying to highlight. It is an obvious point. That’s why it is called “jury selection”. Not “jury random picking”. > [@](#): > > Thank you. This obviously was not a random event (p=0.04), in fact, we have a 96% chance to believe \*bias \*was involved in jury selection. Yes. There is bias involved in jury selection in 100% of all trials. The system guarantees it. What exactly is your point? ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11127 "2013-06-24T14:49:42Z")
The pool of 40 jurors wasn’t 50/50 male/female, it was [16 male, 24 female.](http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/expert-potential-zimmerman-jury-pool-melting-pot/nYPK3/) ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11128 "2013-06-24T14:54:31Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > Do you have a cite on that? If that comes out, that could be a strike against him, if the defense doesn’t have it thrown out. Thank god, I hope you’re right. Was in an evidence dump a few weeks ago: > [@](#): > > The new evidence list includes information that Zimmerman trained at a Longwood gym that specializes in boxing and kickboxing. A webpage for the business, Kokopelli’s Gym, describes it as “the most complete fight gym in the world.” [http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/trayvon-martin/os-george-zimmerman-trial-cop-application-20130604,0,7772961.story](http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/trayvon-martin/os-george-zimmerman-trial-cop-application-20130604,0,7772961.story) And in his opening statement, the prosecution said that he had been taking lessons for ‘18 months’. Now, that very well could be only that he had been a member of the gym for that length of time; I’m sure we’ll get more testimony on that. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11129 "2013-06-24T14:56:04Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > At least we know Emmett Till and Trayvon Martin have something in common: the outright bias and statistical improbability of the selection of their juries. Can you explain how an all-female\* jury is potentially biased in favor of Zimmerman, in the same way that an all-white jury was potentially biased in favor of the defendants in the Emmett Till trial? - Two of the alternates are male. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11130 "2013-06-24T14:59:53Z")
**Honesty** , if you can’t see the difference between a one in 66 chance and a one in a quintillion chance, there’s not a lot I can say to help you. That’s quite apart from the deliberate nonrandom selection designed to eliminate bias. You can’t use statistics to show bias in this case. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11131 "2013-06-24T15:02:08Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > Do you have a cite on that? If that comes out, that could be a strike against him, if the defense doesn’t have it thrown out. Thank god, I hope you’re right. he belonged to a [martial arts gym](http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/05/18779269-prosecutors-george-zimmerman-applied-to-be-a-police-officer?lite). How is that a strike against him. Did he use a special kung fu technique to dial his phone? Because there’s not a mark on Martin’s body except for his knuckle. ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11132 "2013-06-24T15:09:33Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > The pool of 40 jurors wasn’t 50/50 male/female, it was [16 male, 24 female.](http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/expert-potential-zimmerman-jury-pool-melting-pot/nYPK3/) It still works out to be the same. 60% for the first female juror, 30% for the second female juror, 15% for the third female juror, 7.5% for the fourth female juror, 3.75% for the fifth female juror, and **1.8%** for the sixth female juror. - Honesty ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11133 "2013-06-24T15:11:09Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > **Honesty** , if you can’t see the difference between a one in 66 chance and a one in a quintillion chance, there’s not a lot I can say to help you. That’s quite apart from the deliberate nonrandom selection designed to eliminate bias. You can’t use statistics to show bias in this case. No, I can’t see the difference, try explaining it to me. - Honesty [QUOTE=Cartoon Guide to Statistics] • Claim – Jurors were selected from the population – 50% of eligible citizens were African American – P = .5 • Evidence – On an 80 person panel of potential jurors only 4 were African-American. • Question: Was this pure chance? – P( 4 or less ) = 1.4x10^18 = 1 in quintillion – Probability is less than drawing 3 consecutive royal flushes [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11134 "2013-06-24T15:13:53Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > It still works out to be the same. 60% for the first female juror, 30% for the second female juror, 15% for the third female juror, 7.5% for the fourth female juror, 3.75% for the fifth female juror, and **1.8%** for the sixth female juror. > > - Honesty Ok, I’ll take your word on the math, just wanted to correct that error in your analysis. More importantly: Can you explain how an all-female\* jury is potentially biased in favor of Zimmerman, in the same way that an all-white jury was potentially biased in favor of the defendants in the Emmett Till trial? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11135 "2013-06-24T15:22:02Z")
And if they specialize in boxing and kickboxing, Zimmerman would not have been experienced in ground fighting, which is what he needed. Plus I would need to confirm that the details of what the prosecution claims in their opening statement are true. Because the prosecution also claimed that Zimmerman had applied to be a police officer in Prince William County, MD. There is no Prince William County in Maryland. Therefore, applying the same standards to the prosecution as seem to get applied to Zimmerman, we can assume that the opposite of whatever they say is true. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11136 "2013-06-24T16:08:14Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > No, I can’t see the difference, try explaining it to me. > > - Honesty A one in 66 chance will occur in a Florida courtroom daily. A one in a quadrillion won’t. Your argument that it’s unlikely is meaningless without data on the general constitution of Florida juries, and the methods used to select them. In short, you have failed to even suggest bias. Also, why do you keep quoting an irrelevant example? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11137 "2013-06-24T16:21:29Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > You might want to check out the _Cartoon Guide to Statistics_, [here](http://books.google.com/books?id=sjUcgxEz4x0C&printsec=frontcover). Here’s a claim straight the book itself: > > Not my claim, but the authors, please explain how the author is wrong in going about finding the probability of jurors. Moreover, explain how statistics in this manner do not apply to jury selection and the quantitative reasons thereof. Thank you. They’re not wrong, but the conclusion you’re drawing from them is wrong. Consider flipping a coin six times. What are the odds that all six will end up heads? Just about the number you’re discussing here: less than 2%. Correct? But if I told you I flipped a coin and it landed heads six times in a row, would you be stunned? Probably not – because people flip a lot of coins, and weirder streaks than that happen when you flip lots of coins. ---
**Author:** ![Hbns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hbns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hbns)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11138 "2013-06-24T18:05:45Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > No, I can’t see the difference, try explaining it to me. No one should bother, as it should be painfully obvious that applying random selection statistics to a non-random selection is a fools game. ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11139 "2013-06-24T19:39:03Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > A one in 66 chance will occur in a Florida courtroom daily. A one in a quadrillion won’t. Your argument that it’s unlikely is meaningless without data on the general constitution of Florida juries, and the methods used to select them. > > In short, you have failed to even suggest bias. > > Also, why do you keep quoting an irrelevant example? **Steophan** , in the future, pretend that I’m stupid and that you have to explain things to me like a child. It’d be much easier for the both of us. Now, what I think you’re saying is that there’s a 1/66 chance that a Florida courtroom will pick 6 female jurors. Correct? Now, I’m still not understanding where you’re getting the 1/66 (precisely why I asked you nicely to show your math, but I digress), but let’s keep it for now. Further, you allege that statistics is meaningless without all of the data of all the Florida juries. Finally, you claim that the methods used is important in jury selection. First, I reject outright that statistics and the phenomena of jury selection are divorced. To claim that a branch of science doesn’t apply to a random activity, such as jury selection, is mind-boggling: so we can agree to disagree on that one. Second, I don’t have the inclination nor the time to comb through all of the data from every single Florida jury, I’m talking about this case and this case alone. You’re not going to goal-post me into doing some statistical book report on every juror case in Florida. Sorry. I’ve proven to you using two different statistical tests that the jury selection was non-random. Interestingly, _most of you agree with this_, so I’m admittedly perplexed as to why you’re trying to argue that somehow the jury selection was not random. The unbiased nature of jury selection suggests a systemic purging of black minorities from the voter pool. Again, this ought to be self-evident. The statistics clearly show that there was a 2% chance this event would have occurred by chance alone. Further, since jury selection is an archetype of _conditional probability_, one can easily calculate difference using the formula. Lastly, I’ve asked you to pull out an Excel spreadsheet and use an unpaired ttest to determine whether this is significance. There indeed is a significant difference with a p value of 0.04 between the observed distribution (0.6) and the expected distrubution (1). [QUOTE=Human Action] Can you explain how an all-female\* jury is potentially biased in favor of Zimmerman, in the same way that an all-white jury was potentially biased in favor of the defendants in the Emmett Till trial? [/QUOTE] Well, Human Action, there’s a lot of anti-black sentiment in this country, so yes, I have very little doubt that five white women (one of which who called the protesters outside “rioters”) and one Hispanic woman are going to convict Zimmerman of second-degree murder. He’ll not only walk out of court, he’ll run out there, right into a flurry of interviews, book deals (Book Title: “It was God’s plan”), before jumping into next season of “Survivor” or “Dancing with the Stars” in order to lap up the last choice morsels of fame and attention. This parallels with Emmett Till as this case shows you that blacks are good enough for the bullet but not good enough to sit on the jury bench to talk about the bullet. [QUOTE=Bricker] But if I told you I flipped a coin and it landed heads six times in a row, would you be stunned? Probably not – because people flip a lot of coins, and weirder streaks than that happen when you flip lots of coins. [/QUOTE] **Bricker** , if the coin is the jury in this analogy, the jury was not flipped 6 times, it was flipped 40 times. Similarly, if you told me that you flipped a coin 40 times and it landed “heads” each time, I would be stunned, YMMV. - Honesty ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11140 "2013-06-24T19:43:14Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > To claim that a branch of science doesn’t apply to a random activity, such as jury selection, is mind-boggling Again, for some silly reason you insist that jury selection is a random activity. It is definitely not designed to be a random activity, and it never is. Where are you getting the idea that jury selection is supposed to be random? ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11141 "2013-06-24T19:44:13Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > Well, Human Action, there’s a lot of anti-black sentiment in this country, so yes, I have very little doubt that six white women (one of which who called the protesters outside “rioters”) are going to convict Zimmerman of second-degree murder. He’ll not only walk out of court, he’ll run out there, right into a flurry of interviews, book deals (Book Title: “It was God’s plan”), before jumping into next season of “Survivor” or “Dancing with the Stars” in order to lap up the last choice morsels of fame and attention. This parallels with Emmett Till as this case shows you that blacks are good enough for the bullet but not good enough to sit on the jury bench to talk about the bullet. So, you have no objection to the all-female part, then? Because all you addressed above was race, but all your statistical modeling was about gender. Does gender matter, or not? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2013, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125/11142 "2013-06-24T19:45:50Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > AWhere are you getting the idea that jury selection is supposed to be random? It’s a common misconception, I think. **Honesty** : the jury _pool_ is supposed to be more or less random. But the jury itself is whittled down from the pool in a process that is anything but random. For example, it was important that this jury not have strongly-held views about self-defense and the right of gun ownership. That factor alone would make it less likely to contain men than the typical jury. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125.md?page=556) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/martin-zimmerman-humble-opinions-and-speculation-thread/619125.md?page=558)