Depends on what you mean by “hopeful”. Turkey is doing much better than most in the region but still has a third-world economy. Israel has a first-world economy. Turkey has further to climb.
There’s still no sign, is there, that this is shaping up to a coup?
Nope.
Good news is: the optomists appear to have been right, and the era of coups in Turkey seems to be over, at least for now.
Bad news is: the motive for the mass resignation was the lack of speedy and transparent trials for hundreds of arrested officers. This isn’t a good portent fot Turkey’s continuing democratization.
Good news outweighs bad news, though.
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/turkey_military.html
Well, I was only making a joke but I can do this:
(1) Turkey has moved up 20 points in the standings since 2004 since your cite while Israel moved up 1, maybe 2, since there are differences in the countries included.
(2) Turkey has to account for all the people it governs, while Israel has the convenience of being responsible for but not being responsible for the Palestinians. I am sure the Turkish GDP would sky rocket if all the Kurds were not citizens but in territories controlled by Turkey.
(3) Being in the G20, below 10% unemployment and in the top 40% of states for GDP is still counted as a 3rd world economy? I don’t know for sure, but I am guessing that doesn’t fit the definition - if there is one.
Economy isn’t the only thing. I am personally much more interested in the outcome of the new constitution since Erdogan will not shut up about how inclusive it will be. I cynically think he means Sunni Muslims will have more say in being Sunni Muslims in the public sphere, but I am hopeful that he means all religions and ethnicities.
Another way you could look at hopeful is in “How is country X dealing with its individual problems?”. Turkey has seen a decade of improvement in all fronts, on all its problems except freedom for journalists and the vague legality of the Ergenekon arrests and trials. Israel is not improving on its single biggest problem, and will see no change under the leadership of people like Netanyahu and Lieberman.
A further way you could look at hopeful is as inspiration. Turkey and Erdogan are inspirational to the Arab Spring. Protestors in every country have acknowledged this. I sincerely doubt much inspiration comes from Israel’s example.
Although my knowledge of what goes on in Israel is of limited scope, I certainly find their science, technology and education a lot more hopeful than in Turkey. Turkish science is a bit sad and I’ve known several Turks (in agriculture) who look to Israel’s example.
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What are the political prospects for Kurdish independence? Does the cause get any sympathy at all from any non-Kurdish Turks or political parties?
Seems to me Turkey-minus-Kurdistan would be a more stable, prosperous democracy, with a better human-rights record, and better positioned for that EU membership.
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We probably should start a new thread about this. I do not deny that Turkey is doing well and showing massive improvement - merely that it still has a long, long way to go, before it is really in Israel’s league in terms of modernity of society and economy. Turkey is now enjoying democracy and may have thrown off the spectre of military coups for good, which is great news, none better; but Israel was always a democracy and never had military coups.
The fact that the populations of the Arab countries are not and never have been inspired by the example of a modern democracy in their midst has more to do with the fact of the seemingly eternal ethno-political conflict between Israel and them, than any inherent defect in Israel’s modernity or democracy.
Both countries obviously have their problems. Turkey’s internal problems were far more severe than Israel’s, and that they are dealing with them of course redounds to the credit of the Turks. They are however still severe, and cut to the roots of effective democratoc civil society - namely, the effective rule of law and freedom of expression. That’s part of what this whole generals resigning thing is about - to return to this thread.
Excellent points.
Let me just add a quick rundown of the excellent results of Davutoğlu’s “zero problems” foreign policy, too: Improved trade relations with Russia, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, and others; a visa-free travel deal with Syria (which probably goes a long way to explain what you said about Turkey inspiring the Arab Spring); twelve new embassies in Africa…
All in all, they certainly seem to be strengthening their standing in the region and the world – and all this without firing a single bullet, by the way, or even rattling a single saber. (Though they do have NATO’s second-biggest army!)
The only regional relation that has clearly deteriorated under Erdogan/Davutoğlu is that with Israel, but from a Turkish point of view the gains clearly outweigh the costs here, and in any case the damage probably isn’t irreparable.
There are no political prospects for Kurdish independence. I have never heard it spoken of by any Turkish or Kurdish friends I have made (although I doubt it would just come up) nor is it spoken of by leading Kurdish political figures. Autonomy is the strongest word used and the likely outcome is greater respect for Kurdish freedom of expression and better economic development. Some of this is supposedly going to be in the new constitution. If these developments really do occur, I doubt there would be further active interest in independence.
You seem very interested in a Kurdistan but it isn’t going to come from Turkish land any time soon. There isn’t the kind of enthusiasm for it on any side of the equation.
I wouldn’t mind after this constitution issues gets resolved. In my mind there isn’t much to talk about until it does. Replying to your last sentence though, yes, freedom of expression is impinged upon but not in a way that absolutely forbids the average Turk from learning what their politicians are doing in major newspapers. Rule of law is partially the problem in Turkey. Some of the laws suck and allow for the things we see in regards to imprisonment. Hopefully these things change with the constitution.
Thanks and yours are enlightening as well. I have been thinking of failures or continuing failures like Armenia and the inability to be peace brokers either between Syria and Israel or Iran and the planet. Yet all these successes are surely due to the policy and benefits the country in more ways than just economics.
I do question whether there was a gain associated with the meltdown with Israel. I think most of their foreign policy objectives could be accomplished without it. It’s only been a loss.
When generals do this, it’s called a coup. You would prefer this to a democratically elected government?
I can’t see how resigning can in any way be considered a bad thing, considering the alternatives. I wish more government officials would resign and blow the whistle on unethical or illegal practices, rather than go along and defacto support them/
Their Armenian relations are still pretty much a hot mess, not arguing with you there. From what I hear, Davutoğlu had pretty much already sealed the deal when Erdogan decided to step right in and torpedo the whole thing. From the Economist:
And from the same article, another interesting bit:
You know what, though: I’m ready to be corrected on the “Realpolitisch” usefulness of the Israel fracas… I should have written “probably” rather than “clearly.” My thinking was that without a bit of tough-guy posturing vis-à-vis Israel, all the aforementioned progress with the anti-Israeli nations in Turkey’s vicinity might not have been possible. Thinking about it, though, the timeline probably doesn’t support my initial hunch: I’d bet Turkey’s successful foreign policy push must have started well before the Mavi Marmara clusterfuck.
The Turkey-Brazil-brokered nuclear deal with Iran seems, by the way, as another excellent example of the kind of self-centered (in a good way) type of initiative that so infuriates the West.
And of course, it will be really interesting to see what the regions’ post-Arab Spring leaders might feel about Turkey…
Ah well, time will tell.
Are you going to address the factual rise of Islamic influence in Turkey or just throw a bunch of silly tantrums? You remind me of Sideshow Bob: “Attempted murder! What? Do they give a Nobel prize for Attempted Chemistry?” The army stopped creeping Islamic influence at least 4 times. The people of Turkey still supported them. There are no problems in my eyes if the army does it again
I’m actually quite harsh on Israel compared to most of its defenders. I think they did horrible things, war crime things, and believe they need to take a bullet for the team, so to speak, by holding back retaliation even if they are attacked by random terrorists
So with that said, the near universal bigotry against Israel does not speak well for Middle Eastern Muslims. You may not be able to admit it to yourself, but using the Israel issue as an example of continuing anti-Semetic is valid. Until some countries there democratically support Israel instead of a puppet dictator doing so against the wishes of the general population, then the pointed bigotry in the Muslim world in the ME is rather obvious and valid to use as an example. Don’t pretend that it has anything to do with converting people to my viewpoint
You mean like how the French or the English have their own ethnicity and nation but generally are in agreement with the US? You’ve just admitted that Turkey has their own views and interests that may not be aligned with the US. That’s all I’m saying. I’ve only made the argument that I would rather have the secular military depose a democratically elected but more Islamic government because I, as an American, an atheist, and public bathroom connoisseur, believe that aligns more with my views. If I were a Muslim living in Turkey, I’m sure I would feel different. The anger you’ve shown in defense of the government of Turkey belies some ulterior motivation.
The Kurds can have northern Iraq. There are enough of them there that even Saddam was indiscriminantly gassing them. Even while Iraq was under Saddam, we carved out the northern portion of their country as a No Fly Zone to protect further transgressions. If Kurds should get a homeland anywhere, its northern Iraq.
This isn’t about the current democratic governments in and around the ME. Kindly keep the discussion focused on Turkey and their government
Ha! Yeah, I was wondering if you’d catch that. Owing to the effects of what happened within and around Germany’s borders, there is absolutely no contradiction in my mind to call them a free country with little to no censorship and also completely and properly intolerant of Holocaust deniers to the point of jailing them. I’ve posted in other topics about that. What happened with the Holocaust, and genocide in general, exceeds the boundaries of normal criminal law to prosecute. It is a special case. You don’t have to agree with that, many don’t, but that’s what I believe. Turkey would do well to eliminate its censorship on shit like defamation and focus on bringing to light the genocide of a hundred years ago. And yes, if that means jailing deniers of that, or people who try to pretend like it wasn’t a genocide, then that is still perfectly free
Seriously, the Korean War? How long and how many coups ago was that? Did they fight in the Iraq war? I noticed that wasn’t on the list. Or the Gulf War? And its nice that it says it supports education for all, but Saudi Arabia says it ensures its citizens have a strong voice in local affairs yet women can’t vote or drive. Also “entrepreneurship”? “Open trade”? You can say that but what does that mean in practice? I’m sure if you ask the Chinese government it says the same thing, but what you and I consider those terms to be probably differs a lot with what the regime thinks of them internally. And its not hard to have better education system than other Muslim countries when the other ones are so bad. I’m glad nobody gets shot though, being in jail for 2 years is a much better alternative
Its more benign than an Islamic state
Because in general they’re more correct than the alternatives. Notice I didn’t say “Israel is always right”, like many people will read in that sentence
Yes, I would prefer a secular Turkish coup than a democratically elected theocracy. And one can still blow the whistle while being employed. Probably get better access that way too
Look, your views are an anachronism. The new Supreme Military Council is in. Nothing happened. You’re just going to have to live with freedom and democracy.
Enjoy your old news stereotypes of Turkey and the rest of the Middle East.
Dial back the personal remarks or take it to The BBQ Pit.
[ /Moderating ]
I am happy if they prove me wrong. However, given what happened in Palestine and their elections, I remain unconvinced that Muslim democracy in the ME will result in a state that is better for the US than one that is dominated by a secular military
I assume you make judgements about Japan based on elections in Korea and judgements about Ireland based on elections in the UK, because Turkey and the Palestinians are culturally far less alike than the Japanese and the Koreans or the Irish and the British.
Culturally speaking, the Turks have about as much in common with the Palestinians as Americans do with Mexicans.
Also, I’m a bit confused as to what happened in the elections for the leadership of the PA did you disapprove of?
I assume you’re not trying to pass off the elections in the Gaza Strip, in which most of the voters were refugees living in the world’s largest concentration camp who’d been under a fairly brutal occupation for almost half-a-century.
I have to say that this statement makes very little sense based on your earlier trumpeting of Israel being a great democracy.
As I’m sure you’re aware, Israel doesn’t believe in freedom of the Press and doesn’t practice it either.
All foreign newspapers and Arabic language newspapers distributed in Israel have to be approved of by a military censor.
That’s why during the 1970s, when the then former Israeli PM, Yitzhak Rabin was interviewed by the New York Times and discussed his role in the forcible removal of the Arabs of Jenin during the Israeli War for Independence(in modern parlance ethnic cleansing) this portion of the interview wasn’t printed in the Hebrew Language edition.
Claiming that Turkey’s “internal problems” are more severe than Israel’s is extremely questionable.
I’d certainly find being an ethnic Kurd or Armenian in modern day Turkey far more preferable to being an Arab Israeli, or for that matter a Muslim Turk or Arab in France, Germany or the Netherlands. They’re certainly better integrated into society and while they’re lives aren’t a bed of roses they overall face less discrimination.
Israel is a state founded on an archaic form of blood and soil nationalism which effectively excludes 24% of it’s citizenry and makes little attempt to convince the Israeli Arabs they’re anything other than guests to, at best, be tolerated.
It has very severe issues which will continue to be aggravated as it’s Arab citizenry continues to grow while it’s Jewish citizenry grows more extreme and more racist(which is the current trend).
What criteria are you using to determine that? Culture can be anything from food to sex habits, or having sex with food.
Do you think, given the religious makeup of Turkey, that elections would result in a predominantly secular or Islamic government? Of course, you don’t need to answer it, this has already happened. They elected a predominantly Islamic government
Yes, the situation was bad, however they still elected terrorists. Such a thing cannot be easily dismissed. Like it or not, these were predominantly Islamic people who voted an anti-Israel regime into power. But maybe in the next election they’ll vote them out, right?
I said it was a better democracy. I don’t think its at the level of the US though, but certainly better than Turkey.
No, I wasn’t aware of that censorship in Israel. Cite? I wonder if they are still like this now
I’ll go with your judgement but I really do not see how I was doing anything other than talking about his point-of-view. It’s not like it is an uncommon sentiment.
YogSosoth I hope you read Ibn Warraq’s post very clearly. He did a very good job of showing you why predicting Turkey’s political future from Palestinians is complete nonsense. Yet it’s hopefully instructive to you. Your admitted ethnocentrism is the root of classifying Palestinians and Turks together when they actually are culturally and historically different. Check out the term “Out-Group Homogeneity” someday.
If you actually took the time to learn something about the goings on in these Middle Eastern countries you would feel very different about military coups and ‘creeping Islamism’.