The MA Legislature deserves kudos for that. If you want to do business in our State, you do it our way. I hope CA does something similar when it inevitably becomes legal here. It was defeated soundly in 2022 and may be back on the ballot next year.
Part of the reason it was legalized here was that MA residents were driving to New Hampshire, Rhode Island, or Connecticut (which all had legal gambling) and placing the bets while they were physically located in those states, which is perfectly legal. If there’s anything MA hates more than sin, it’s losing tax revenue to surrounding states. Most of MA residents live within a 45 minute drive of one of those states. Presumably CA doesn’t have that issue.
But gambling is pretty much guaranteed to generate significant profit; certainly most state-run lotteries do so. Those enormous profits create a significant incentive to “make the problem worse”.
I lived in Massachusetts some time ago, and took note of the extent to which the state lottery was aggressively promoted. This included sending a “good for one free lottery ticket” to every resident with a registered phone number, with the exception of those known to have previously bought a ticket.
Ah, true. One can imagine state-run gambling that does not turn a profit, and exists purely to provide a relatively-safe outlet for people who wish to gamble, but that doesn’t seem to correspond to anything that actually exists.
Off topic, I’ve been feeling lately that the prudishness of the younger generations is going to whiplash society severely and soon-ish. They hate alcohol, welcome back prohibition. They are grossed out by sexuality in movies/TV, let’s reinstate the Hays Code. Etc… I fear that gambling wil be an easy target to galvanize such kinds of puritan movements.
I was struck while watching a recent PTI episode how they exclusively have two main sponsors: Grey Goose and Draft Kings. It’s like doing a Scrooge McDuck dive into a pool of vice.
I am reasonably confident if the parlay failed, Draftkings would not have said a thing.
Was this parlay available on the entire Draftkings website? if so, I am surprised it was only exploited by one better
I think the way it worked was you can create your own parlay and he was the first to try that particular type of combo. Or at least the first one to win.
This is exactly right. Normally a bettor wouldn’t try a parlay with that combo, because it normally isn’t allowed. How he happened upon it is known only to him.
Would they allow you a parlay where (in some hypothetical universe), the Dolphins win their last two games, and the Bill’s win the superbowl, and it’s mathematically impossible for the Bills to even make the playoffs if the Dolphins win the last two games? How about if it is just wildly improbable (e.g. 5 other games would need to go a particular way)
Or are the parlays only allowed for events that are truly independent?
They are supposed to be but…
Those sites are illegal in California or I’d play around with it just for fun.
We do have kalshi in California which they were able to start because they are Federally regulated like a stock exchange. It’s a brilliant use of a loophole that is being challenged in the Courts.
I made an account on there and you can wager on all kinds of things other than sports like election results, weather, who will win an Oscar and the economy. One thing that surprised me is that you can wager on what will be the first song performed at the Super Bowl or who would be a surprise guest on the New Year’s Eve ball drop show. This is crazy to me because this is information that is knowable. If I’m friend’s with Bad Bunny, he can give me that information.
Correct. For instance, the Ravens and Steelers play this weekend, with the winner going to the playoffs and the loser going home. I just tried to create a parlay in which the Ravens won the game AND the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Couldn’t do it.
Then, I tried to create a parlay in which the Ravens won the game and the Ravens also won the Super Bowl. Also could not do that, and I think the reason for that is that one event is dependent on the other event. But I don’t know that for sure.
Thanks. It sounds like this was some kind of coding or setup error.
To use a retail pricing analogy (my area of expertise?) I don’t know if this is a case like someone pricing a refrigerator at $8.99 instead of $899 (an obvious error that would not be enforced) or like someone doing a Buy One Get One Free on Fred’s Canned Soups 16oz and forgetting to specify that the lower priced one is free, so someone scans the chicken noodle at $3.99 first and wants to get the lobster bisque at $4.99 for free (that may be enforced because it’s not obvious that the cheaper one was supposed to be free). Or maybe even if you accidentally give out loyalty points for buying a gift card with a gift card ad infinitum.
Well, this actually happened 45 years ago. A baseball card priced at $1200.00 was mistakenly sold for $12.00. Read about it here.
Hm… Are there any games where both teams are already mathematically eliminated? Can you parlay the outcome of one of those with the Super Bowl? Or maybe a game between two teams, and then on a third team in the other conference to reach the Superbowl? Those should be independent.
Or how about a game like Ravens and Steelers, combined with some other team winning the Superbowl? That one should be considered dependent (even if the precise dependence would be very difficult to determine), since it could affect whom the third team ends up playing.
I’m curious whether they were fully rigorous in labeling which events are independent, or if they just used some mostly-right heuristics.
Well, I tried a lot of combinations, but it appears to me that a ‘futures’ bet cannot be parlayed with an individual game bet. For instance, I tried to parlay the Patriots winning the SB with the Cowboys beating the Giants, but it wouldn’t let me do that. Nor any other similar combo that I tried.
Then, just for grins, I tried to parlay the Pats winning the SB with the Rams winning the NFC championship. Couldn’t do that either, which seems strange.
Then I tried to parlay the Pats winning the AFC and the Rams winning the NFC. That I was allowed to do.
Don’t ask me why.
All elements of a parlay have to close on the same weekend? Just spitballin’, here.
Nope.
Just tried another one: Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, and Arizona to win the NCAA championship game. That parlay is allowed. Those two games are two months apart.
(BTW, a two-dollar bet on that parlay will return $114.00)
The comparison to a mispriced TV or fridge doesn’t hold since the outcome of the parlay isn’t guaranteed like a purchase. Placing a bet is closer to hiring a service than buying a good. A fundamental aspect of a wager is that once it is accepted, paid for, and the outcome known – it’s a done deal. Any due diligence needs to be completed before the event. If you pay someone $20 and they cut your lawn, what would you say if they came back the next day and asked for $100 instead?
DraftKings should have detected their error and canceled the bet before the game. After the game, they need to pay up. What if they had another bug and calculated the wrong odds – should they get to reduce those payouts? Or after they paid they detect the error – should they get to demand the money back?
And what difference does it make if the bettor exploited an error or not? If another person made a similar bet without noticing, would they be entitled to the winnings?
It is not like they only have uncorrelated parlays – DraftKings offers Same Game Parlays (SGPs), right?
In general in betting you can only create your own accumulator for things that are independent. So winner of Super Bowl/ winner of the other conference wouldn’t be independent, as an “easy” opponent for the SB would affect the odds of the SB win bet. Bets which are directly correlated with each other are bet builders and are very hard to price properly so are only used limitedly. It seems both types of bets are just called parlays in the US