Math formula question

You gamble in real time online. Your computer accesses the market and you can use the interface offered - basically a web page with clickable options - of you can build your own spreadsheets to interact with the server.

This is the leading site - a $billion business: http://sports.betfair.com/

Fwiw, it’s been illegal for Americans to use the site since about 2004-5.

I tried to describe ‘lay’ to crisk in post #15.
don’t ask - thanks for your interest. Sounds a totally reasonable career path. Back to don’t ask and Ximenean in a bit . . .

And as usual, I think my calculations are slightly wrong. However, I don’t think it detracts from the basic point that if your goal is to avoid risk rather than maximise profit, your optimal bets are different. It’s rather like the contestant in Who Wants to be a Millionaire, who’s 75% sure of the answer to a question which would double their money. It might seem to make mathematical sense to answer the question, but what if the contestant is already on $125,000? Should they risk losing most of it for a single shot at $250,000?