Another point on the Fermi Paradox: “Contacted” does not necessarily mean “face to face”. We also haven’t received any radio transmissions from aliens, either.
I would think that if it was easy, then it would happen fast. If it was hard for an intelligent species to develop a tech civilization then why did it happen so quickly for us? I think the odds are good that the development of a tech civilization comes easily after intelligence has evolved.
Why should it happen faster? Well, if intelligence is easy and conveys large survival advantages, it should come easy, and therefore quick…am I off base here???
Why? If intelligence is common, why would we be the first? Is there some reason Earth would have a head start like I asked in a previous post? If there is a reason, I could see us being first but if there is no reason then, if it was easy, why are we the first? Or is this the someone has to be first, we’re here so we must be it anthropic (?) principle again???
This actually scares me a bit. What if we go out there and there is nothing there!?
For possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox, this book looks like a good read: If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens . . . Where Is Everybody? : Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life (2002) Stephen Webb.
Clarissa_xx -
I don’t understand why you keep asking questions that start with ‘If it’s easy…’
It’s not easy. We don’t know what the hard part is - maybe life doesn’t spontaneously develop many places, or maybe multi-celled life is a big hurdle, or maybe evolving from water-based to air-breathing is really rare, or maybe evolving from regular species to technology-embracing species just doesn’t happen much.
The problem with the argument in the OP is not that it’s easy. It’s that the fact that it happened, doesn’t imply the end is near. At all.
It takes more than just brains. Dolphins are quite smart. For the sake of argument lets say they are even smarter than humans. What are the chances of dolphins building a tech society? Zero…those flippers just don’t lend themselves to handling tools very well. Aliens may take all sorts of different forms but just becasue you can speculate an intelligent alien doesn’t mean it has the capability to build a rocket or a radio.
Also, from an evolutionary standpoint, you should need a motivation to prompt the species into new behavior (such as tool use). Dolphins are top of the food chain. Except for the occasional shark and tuna boat they don’t have much to worry about so have no impetus to develop new survival strategies. Proto-humans, on the other hand, were very much at the mercy of many predators and their environment. New strategies for survival would very much be the order of the day for proto-humans. Eventually it dawned on people that they could do more with this brain thing than just hunt better and started applying it to all sorts of endeavors.
[hijack]
Hey, Clarissa XX, where have you been? You vanished right in the middle of the Aberration game, and when you were doing so well too. ( it killed the game, also. 
) We were worried that something had hapened to you, glad to see that you are still alive and kicking.
[hijack]
Hi weirddave!!
I’m so sorry about that!!
Boyfriend-marriage problems/moving and all sorts of stuff. It wasn’t fun 
Didn’t get married (free again!), still going to school. Things are stablising pretty good right now but was in no mood or have much time for BB’s. I even lost my Hotmail account to inactivity but they let me reactivate it.
I am really, really sorry about the Aberation game. It was fun! 
If I remember correctly, were you Spain?? I think I was in trouble in that game and was about to be attacked by the remaining two players. I was prepared for it and would have fought hard but pretty sure I would be defeated. Was my instinct right??
By way of clarification, the argument that Clarissa_xx has heard at second or thirdhand is due to the GR specialist Brandon Carter (*Phil.Trans.R.Soc.*A 370, 347, 1983). We’ve all kicked a similar vague recital of it around once before in Great Debates. As on that occasion, I think everybody is pretty much arguing with what they think the argument might be, rather than what Carter said. From my post in that thread:
It’s perhaps worth adding that the philosopher John Leslie has pushed this and similar arguments in several of his books.
Actually, I was the GM, and word afterwards was that Ireland was going to stab Spain, you might have pulled the game out in the confusion.