# May 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 15, 2020, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889 "2020-05-15T22:54:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/41 "2020-05-26T06:21:12Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > There’s nothing to take (per board rules) so there’s no reason to treat this contest as winner take all. Even games played with pretend money have rules and definitions of victory. After our family poker game, all the money goes back in Mommy’s coin jar, but we still know who won. \* You wrote:\* “After the election results are known, I will compute the Brier score for each entry. _Lowest Brier score wins._” > [@](#): > > My goal for this thread (and future threads like it) is to determine which probabilistic forecasts produced by the SDMB were most accurate 5 months out, 4 months out, etc. But it’s beginning to look like my PredictIt derived forecast will win that distinction by being the only probabilistic forecast produced. My solution is still non-integer, and I’m “betting” on it. A single additional submission isn’t enough for me to go all-integer. > [@](#): > > There’s nothing wrong with a contest to see who can pick the most winners, but that wasn’t the intent of this thread. YOU are the one who wrote: “_Lowest Brier score wins._” Perhaps you want to change this criterion? I pointed out the problem 8 days ago: " I’m not sure that splitting the prize money among all those tied for best score is the right approach [given Lance’s apparent objective] here." ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/42 "2020-05-26T15:19:36Z")
This contest doesn’t have prize money, pretend or otherwise, but if it helps you enjoy yourself to imagine prize money then, by all means, go for it. “Lowest Brier score wins,” does not imply that the winner takes all of the prize money that you, for some reason, are imagining, but feel free to pretend that it does if that helps motivate you. Definition of the victory condition does not imply a payout structure. The important thing is to have fun so do whatever you need to do to have it. If it is more enjoyable for you to maximize your chances of winning than to minimize your Brier score, then knock yourself out. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/43 "2020-05-26T21:33:56Z")
P(D): Alabama .01 Alaska 0 Arizona (special) .8 Colorado .9 Georgia .1 Georgia (special) .5 (When your husband is a billionaire, why take a stupid chance for a measely few million? Iowa .3 Kansas 0 Kentucky .1 Maine .8 Michigan .99 Montana .5 North Carolina .5 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/44 "2020-05-26T22:35:44Z")
Beautiful. Thank you for your submission. May I ask, is there a method to your madness? Psychohistory perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/45 "2020-05-27T13:04:42Z")
Revised submission: Alabama 0 Alaska 0 Arizona (special) 0.8 Colorado [DEL]0.9[/DEL] 1 Georgia [DEL]0.2[/DEL] 0 Georgia (special) [DEL]0.3[/DEL] 0 Iowa 0.2 Kansas 0.2 Kentucky 0 Maine [DEL]0.55[/DEL] 0.57 Michigan [DEL]0.8[/DEL] 0.82 Montana [DEL]0.35[/DEL] 0.39 North Carolina [DEL]0.45[/DEL] 0.77 No particular changes to my views. Just trying to move toward less crowded parts of this 13-dimensional beach! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/46 "2020-05-29T19:06:29Z")
Five entries in and we still have until the end of Sunday to enter. The entries: ```auto Race Lance Turbo septimus Calavera Oredigger77 Hari Seldon Alabama 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1% Alaska 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Arizona (special) 89.5% 80.0% 100.0% 100.0% 80% Colorado 96.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 90% Georgia 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10% Georgia (special) 31.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50% Iowa 26.9% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30% Kansas 18.5% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Kentucky 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 10% Maine 73.1% 57.0% 100.0% 100.0% 80% Michigan 87.4% 82.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99% Montana 46.9% 39.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50% North Carolina 68.7% 77.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50% ``` If you check your entry and find something amiss, please let me know. I caught one typo earlier today. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/47 "2020-06-01T02:04:25Z")
You have about three hours to submit or update an entry. I’m debating whether or not to even bother updating mine with small adjustments. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/48 "2020-06-01T03:34:20Z")
I barely pay attention to senate races but hey, I’ll play: Alabama: 0.0 D Alaska: 0.45 D Arizona (special): 1.0 D Colorado: 1.0 D Georgia 0.6 D Georgia (special) 0.55 D Iowa 0.5 D Kansas 0.0 D Kentucky 0.35 D Maine 0.95 D Michigan 1.0 D Montana 0.85 D North Carolina 0.6 D My stupid algorithm: take the best-looking candidate against the incumbent in the most recent polls shown on FiveThirtyEight, and give 50% plus 5% times each point of net delta. So for instance, Montana has Bullock at +7, and hence he gets 0.5+(0.05\*7)=0.85. For the Georgia special election, I picked the candidates that seemed most promising for both parties. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/49 "2020-06-01T03:50:14Z")
Thank you for your participation. Here’s my final update, and I’m glad I did. I had flipped Alabama and Alaska in my last update (alphabetical by state name is not the same alphabetical by state postal abbreviation). Alabama 3.6% Alaska 7.8% Arizona\* 90.4% Colorado 96.4% Georgia 24.7% Georgia\* 30.6% Iowa 26.6% Kansas 14.4% Kentucky 9.2% Maine 71.4% Michigan 87.4% Montana 46.2% North Carolina 67.2% Just over an hour remaining. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2020, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/50 "2020-06-02T18:18:42Z")
I can’t believe I missed this thread. Will there be one for June? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2020, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889/51 "2020-06-02T19:14:12Z")
I am planning to do one for the end of each month from May to October. I’ll keep an eye out for you in the June thread. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889.md?page=2)