# May 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 29, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693 "2020-05-29T20:07:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/1 "2020-05-29T20:07:49Z")
Consider these 15 swing states/districts: Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Maine Maine CD-02 Michigan Minnesota Nebraska CD-02 New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst. My entry looks like this… ```auto Race Party Confidence AZ D 4 FL R 1 GA R 7 IA R 11 ME D 15 ME-02 R 12 MI D 8 MN D 14 NE-02 D 5 NH D 10 NC R 2 OH R 9 PA D 6 TX R 13 WI D 3 ``` Entries will be accepted until 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2020, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/2 "2020-05-30T10:46:55Z")
```auto Race Party Confidence AZ D 2 FL R 6 GA R 8 IA R 11 ME D 15 ME-02 R 13 MI D 7 MN D 12 NE-02 D 5 NH D 10 NC R 4 OH R 9 PA D 3 TX R 14 WI R 1 ``` ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2020, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/3 "2020-05-30T13:12:51Z")
```auto Race Party Confidence AZ R 1 FL R 3 GA R 11 IA R 12 ME D 14 ME-02 R 6 MI D 4 MN D 7 NE-02 D 5 NH D 10 NC R 9 OH R 8 PA D 13 TX R 15 WI D 2 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2020, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/4 "2020-05-30T16:24:29Z")
Thank you for the entries. Interesting, all three outcomes are very similar everyone has a Democratic party victory so far. That’s not the usual **septimus** doom and gloom I’ve come to expect. Here’s a summary of the differences… I have D win both AZ and WI so electoral college is D 290 - R 248. **septimus** has D win AZ, R win WI, EC goes D 279 - R 259 **JKellyMap** has R win AZ, D win WI, EC goes D 280 - R 258 Everyone resisted the pundits’ favorite outcome… R win AZ, R win WI, EC goes D 269 - R 269 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/5 "2020-05-31T02:06:18Z")
I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/6 "2020-05-31T04:58:12Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants. This thread was an after thought and a simpler version of a [similar thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=22327309) I started that gave half a month to enter. I plan to do one for the ending of every month from May to October so folks will have plenty of time enter future threads. I expect participation will rise as we get closer to the election. The idea is to see how the collective board wisdom evolves as we get closer to election. Additionally we may learn some things about the predictive power of various data sources. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/7 "2020-05-31T11:42:05Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Interesting, all three outcomes are very similar everyone has a Democratic party victory so far. That’s not the usual **septimus** doom and gloom I’ve come to expect. Maybe I think that a few states’ elections will be subverted, but am unwilling to guess which states. Or that you’ll adjudicate the contest based on November’s popular votes, but the GOP will find some way to subvert the E.C., e.g. via faithless electors. OTOH, deadline is still hours away and perhaps I should re-submit with a more pessimistic guess. :dubious: However I can’t afford the time lost from my busy schedule! 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/8 "2020-05-31T18:30:06Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants. Yeah, I didn’t even see this til after the deadline. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/9 "2020-05-31T20:25:20Z")
> [@digs](#): > > Yeah, I didn’t even see this til after the deadline. Sorry. The deadline is still over eight hours away. I see now that I left the date out of the OP. One can enter the May contest until the end of May. 11:59:59 PM CT tonight. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/10 "2020-05-31T21:15:45Z")
My entry Arizona D 2 Florida D 3 Georgia R 4 Iowa R 8 Maine D 7 Maine CD-02 D 6 Michigan D 12 Minnesota D 15 Nebraska CD-02 R 1 New Hampshire D 10 North Carolina D 5 Ohio R 11 Pennsylvania D 14 Texas R 13 Wisconsin D 9 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/11 "2020-05-31T21:23:47Z")
My entry Arizona D 2 Florida D 3 Georgia R 4 Iowa R 8 Maine D 7 Maine CD-02 D 6 Michigan D 12 Minnesota D 15 Nebraska CD-02 R 1 New Hampshire D 10 North Carolina D 5 Ohio R 11 Pennsylvania D 14 Texas R 13 Wisconsin D 9 ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/12 "2020-05-31T21:50:23Z")
OK, I’ll play… Arizona D 2 Florida D 1 Georgia R 11 Iowa R 6 Maine D 13 Maine CD-02 D 3 Michigan D 8 Minnesota D 12 Nebraska CD-02 R 7 New Hampshire D 15 North Carolina R 4 Ohio R 10 Pennsylvania D 9 Texas R 14 Wisconsin R 5 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/13 "2020-05-31T22:26:03Z")
Another split opinion on Wisconsin. This time, joined by a split opinion on North Carolina. Does Fretful Porcupine forecast a Trump victory? ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/14 "2020-05-31T22:41:06Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Another split opinion on Wisconsin. This time, joined by a split opinion on North Carolina. > > Does Fretful Porcupine forecast a Trump victory? No, certainly not – if all of my predictions are right, the final electoral college vote would be Biden 309, Trump 228. I admit I’m least confident about FL and AZ, but I am not a lot _more_ confident about WI and NC, by any means. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/15 "2020-05-31T22:47:10Z")
- Trump 229. Forgot about that silly Nebraska district. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/16 "2020-05-31T22:56:54Z")
Got it. If your calculations are correct, that means your inclusion of AZ as a Dem state is quite important. I see they have 11 electoral votes (and, likely, 12 votes in 2024). ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2020, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/17 "2020-05-31T23:48:20Z")
```auto Race Party Confidence AZ D 2 FL R 10 GA R 15 IA R 11 ME D 9 ME-02 R 1 MI D 5 MN D 7 NE-02 R 13 NH D 8 NC R 4 OH R 12 PA D 6 TX R 14 WI R 3 ``` This would give Biden a narrow victory, substituting Arizona for Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/18 "2020-06-01T00:07:40Z")
My mistake — I see now the big Democratic state in Fretful Porcupine’s submission is FLORIDA. I have little confidence in that state going D — but I guess there’s hope! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/19 "2020-06-01T00:16:22Z")
Polls are indeed showing a slight Biden lead in Florida in the past month or two — the most recent one from a 538 highly rated pollster, Fox News, had Biden up 46% to 43% on April 23. Of course, this far out, this means little…but I concede Florida is at least in play. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2020, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693/20 "2020-06-01T00:21:20Z")
I’m basing my Florida rating on the facts that 1) [polls of the state](https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) generally show Biden with a small but consistent lead; and 2) Governor DeSantis is one of the very, very few state governors who saw his approval ratings [drop](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-americans-like-how-their-governor-is-handling-the-coronavirus-outbreak/) in the wake of coronavirus, and if people don’t like his response, they likely won’t like Trump’s either. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693.md?page=2)