# Mayoral Race Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 17, 2011, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736 "2011-02-17T19:27:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/1 "2011-02-17T19:27:24Z")
Mine is that Rahm wins and there is no run off. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/2 "2011-02-17T19:38:43Z")
I hear ya. To keep it interesting I’ll say Rahm gets from 47-49.9% and has a runoff with Chico. Rahm wins the runoff. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/3 "2011-02-17T20:22:36Z")
Those are about the only two reasonable predictions at the moment. So I’ll play the long shot and say Dock Walls walks away with it, 75% in the first round. ---
**Author:** ![Wheelz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wheelz/32/5718_2.png) [@Wheelz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wheelz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/4 "2011-02-17T20:25:43Z")
No, it’ll be Walls and Van Pelt-Watkins going to a runoff. Seriously, though, I’m with **Lochdale**. ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/5 "2011-02-23T02:12:31Z")
AP called it for Rahm at 7:50pm (Central) saying he will get about 54% ---
**Author:** ![SeaDragonTattoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@SeaDragonTattoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeaDragonTattoo)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/6 "2011-02-23T03:20:50Z")
I’m so disappointed! I really thought it would be closer. Why the hell is Rahm such a shoo-in? Nobody I know likes him - though I’m also disappointed that so many people didn’t vote. I’ve run into two people today who thought this was some sort of primary and so didn’t vote because they didn’t know it’s the final vote for mayor!! ---
**Author:** ![Two\_Many\_Cats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Two\_Many\_Cats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Two_Many_Cats)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/7 "2011-02-23T03:48:28Z")
Well, I predicted a down and dirty fight for mayor, and that never happened. I guess it was a lock for Rahm after all. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/8 "2011-02-23T05:45:51Z")
> [@SeaDragonTattoo](#): > > Why the hell is Rahm such a shoo-in? … I’ve run into two people today who thought this was some sort of primary and so didn’t vote because they didn’t know it’s the final vote for mayor!! I’m GLAD those people didn’t vote! Uninformed stupid people should NOT vote. As to why he was a shoo-in, think about it: Chicago is a very race-oriented town. White people voted for him because he was one of only two white people on the ballot (and the only one, if you count Chico as Hispanic). Black people voted for him because he is Obama’s boy. It’s the perfect storm. (Of course, it’s easy explaining things AFTER the fact) ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/9 "2011-02-23T06:16:29Z")
> [@SeaDragonTattoo](#): > > I’m so disappointed! I really thought it would be closer. Why the hell is Rahm such a shoo-in? Nobody I know likes him - though I’m also disappointed that so many people didn’t vote. I’ve run into two people today who thought this was some sort of primary and so didn’t vote because they didn’t know it’s the final vote for mayor!! Had Tom Dart stayed in the race, I think it would have been competitive, and there would have been a runoff. Once he dropped out, it was pretty much a given Rahm was going to be mayor. Chico just didn’t have the name recognition and reputation. [Remember the early poll numbers](http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Emanuel-and-Dart-are-the-Willis-Tower-and-the-John-Hancock-Center-104781899.html)? Chico was polling at 2%. Few people knew who the guy was. That’s quite a hurdle to overcome in just three months. That he did as well as he did is impressive. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/10 "2011-02-23T06:21:40Z")
I voted for Chico myself. I think he is a class act, and clearly the most experienced in city government. I fully expect him to stay relevant, and possibly rise again. ---
**Author:** ![SeaDragonTattoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@SeaDragonTattoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeaDragonTattoo)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/11 "2011-02-23T06:27:17Z")
I sure hope so. I voted for Chico, too. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/12 "2011-02-23T09:34:22Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > Mine is that Rahm wins and there is no run off. Well, when I posted my response to your comment I knew you had it right. I’m suprised his percentage of the vote was that large. I’m also kinda suprised Chico did as well as he did. Not at all suprised Rahm won. > [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](#): > > I voted for Chico myself. I think he is a class act, and clearly the most experienced in city government. I fully expect him to stay relevant, and possibly rise again. I voted for Rahm but I have known Gery Chico for several years. I never thought he would be a bad mayor; I just thought Rahm would be better. Honestly you may be right; if Rahm doesn’t fix a lot of problems fast, Gery would be the person I would expect to capitalize on it. ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/13 "2011-02-23T15:25:48Z")
Rahm walked away because of a less than 50% voter turn out, combined with a lack of a viable candidate. Black leaders tried to get Braun to be the consenses candidte for the African American community and that didn’t work. The Latino vote was somewhat split. The 2010 census shows Chicago to be about 1/3 non-Hispanic white, 1/3 black and 1/3 Latino. Remember a lot of Latinos aren’t citizens (I don’t mean they are necessarily illegal, just that they can’t vote), so there numbers don’t factor into it at all. Beside Rahm uses cuss words and Chicago wants to “bad.” Gay people love him, 'cause they think he’s secretly gay. The Blacks voted for him, as another poster said, they think he’s Mr Obama’s buddy. Latinos were the only big non-group that didn’t support him and their beef really wasn’t AGAINST him, so much as they went with the other two. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/14 "2011-02-23T20:08:02Z")
> [@Markxxx](#): > > Rahm walked away because of a less than 50% voter turn out, combined with a lack of a viable candidate. I really don’t think the former has much to do with it. I believe if there was compulsory voting, Emanuel would have still won outright. I can’t see any indication why a higher turnout would have swung it any other way. The list of candidates, though, that’s another story. Like I said, leave Dart in it, and you at least have a competition. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2011, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/15 "2011-02-24T21:05:49Z")
> [@Markxxx](#): > > Gay people love him, 'cause they think he’s secretly gay. He did study ballet, after all. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/16 "2011-02-28T22:51:25Z")
Not sure if this deserves its own thread or not, but the satirist behind the MayorEmanuel tweets has finally outed himself: [MayorEmanuel](http://m.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/02/revealing-the-man-behind-mayoremanuel/71802/) ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2011, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/17 "2011-03-01T02:51:47Z")
Wow. Thanks for posting that link **Tim**. I hadn’t seen the Atlantic article but that was great and I really enjoyed the selected Tweets they collected, in particular: “I remember when Daniel Burnham kicked the f_ **ing world in the nuts. Let’s get back to being a town of f** _ing nut-kickers.” Hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2011, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mayoral-race-predictions/571736/18 "2011-03-01T07:13:36Z")
You’re very welcome. I just hope that the real Mayor Emanuel turns out to be half the man that the fake one was.