McCain loses. Who's next?

Doubt it. She’s photogenic, has a background in broadcasting, and has no shame in promoting right wing talking points, no matter how absurd. She will get a show on Fox News.

I dunno. That voice is appalling, and I think that most of her fans are just displaying bravado rather than any longterm affection.

But if she ends up on Fox News, that’s pretty much fading into ignominy as far as my life is concerned. I’ll never see her mug again.

I can keep my sig!

My general thought was that he would be elected to the Senate and receive “love gifts” as he did as a pastor and Governor of my fair state, but get caught at the Federal level.

Palin will be the 2012 nominee. The religious right will accept no substitute.

The GOP has been pretty good so far at not letting their base dictate nominees, instead nominating people who are fairly palatable to the rest of the country. Also, as someone else already mentioned, I think the GOP excitement for Palin is somewhat forced, they wanted to have someone to cheer for, and she showed up as the new and exciting candidate, and so got a big boost. I suspect that she’ll be sort of like Edwards was on the Dem side, floating around as a sort of “#3” candidate in the primaries, and then not getting anywhere from there.

So I’ll guess that if Obama looks beatable in '12, Pawlenty will give up his governorship and give it a go. Else Romney, who will need to run in '12 if he wants another go, since by '16 no one will remember who he is.

This. Don’t take your eye off the ball or it will whack you in the … balls. Um.

That sounded better when I started typing it.

Okay, all of this is a hypothetical. Obama may lose. I don’t want to jinx it :smiley:

But if he wins…

Who the GOP picks next will depend largely on how the party deals with the loss. This is the most important thing to realize. A lot of this also depends on what the fiscial conservatives make of the GOP. It will be a VERY interesting time to watch the GOP, folks, and I have no idea what would happen. A lot of it has to do with how Obama and McCain run their respective campaigns too.

After a shocking Obama loss, we’re going to see a big fight between the Christian Right and the fiscally-conservative social moderates. Let’s call them the George Wills vs. the Sean Hannity. Who will win this fight? It appears at this point that the Christian Right can be easily convinced into dropping the small-government ideals. Thats not a big deal for them. Really I do not envy the George Wills of the GOP. They really don’t have many places to go. The Christian Right will probably never leave the GOP. They can’t go to the Democrats and they are too smart to break off to form a third party.

What do the George Wills do? I can’t imagine any circumstances where they will A) be firmly in control of the party and B) happy about the way the election was conducted. They are already furious with McCain for his performance thusfar. They are mad about Palin and they are mad about his economic screw-ups and they are mad about a lot of things. Simply put, they know they are going to lose and they know it is because of the stupidity of the base.

How are they going to play it? Obama is in a unique position to possibly take these people on as Democrats. If Obama makes serious efforts to fight government waste and make some concessions in that direction he could possibly get a sizeable portion of them.

The other problem the George Wills have is the fact that their ideology is in serious peril as a result of the current market conditions. Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people are blaming this on deregulation.

So what will happen to the fiscal-conservatives? I have no idea, but they are going to be screwed. I personally don’t think that fiscally conservatives social moderates are all that numerous. Fiscally-conservative and socially-conservative might still stay on because their Christian Right side might be more important. But I’d imagine that maybe 25 percent of the GOP might be represented by this group. Don’t know for sure though.

I don’t see how anyone can bring the GOP back together again. The knives will be out after November 4th. At the very least, there aren’t any out there that I know of. And the fiscal-conservatives ought to be sick of getting screwed over by wolves in sheep’s clothing. They have been treated this way in 2000 (Bush turned out to not be their guy) and it’s looking that way in 2008 (McCain’s pandering to the right as well). Will they tolerate it yet again in 2012? I would hope not.

So that’s the big deal, the fiscal-conservatives will decide who gets the nod in 2012 depending on what they feel their best options are. I’m sure that if Obama shows some fiscal prudence, then they will join him. A lot have already, in fact. If he governs in a way they don’t find despicable (not hard after Bush) then more will support Obama.

This depends a lot on how much of an impact Obama has on the party. The Democrats are completely horrible, fiscally, to the fiscal-conservative right. I’m not too fond of congressional democrats either, personally. If Obama can make the democrats cut the shit and keep the budget tight, then he’ll get more fiscal-conservatives.

So if Obama is wasteful and horrible in that way then they’ll probably have to stay GOP and try really hard to find someone who won’t screw them. If he does good by them, then they’ll probably bolt and leave the Republicans to elect that idiot Palin.

That’s how I see it shaking out

Nobody knows, since he’s staying within Army tradition and not publically endorsing anyone while in uniform.

But a large majority of Army officers are Republicans, so it wouldn’t be unrealistic for the Republicans to try and recruit him.

I think the candidates for 2008 were so weak, the 2012 nominee almost HAS to be someone else. I’m thinking it will be someone with a fiscal conservative background that would be acceptable to social conservatives.

How about John E. Sununu from New Hampshire?

This guy looked impressive as a member of the GOP team during the bailout crisis. He seems articulate and bring both youth (now 34) and experience (8 years in the House) to the table. Some of his opponents may refer to him as a ‘Howdy Doody looking nimrod’ but I think this may be a rising star.

How about Eric Cantor? I saw his name mentioned as a possible VP choice. He’s young, good-looking (I think he looks like Rupert Everett), Jewish (I think), and from Virginia.

I meant to link to Eric Cantor’s wikipedia page.

Well said, Merkwurdigliebe.

I don’t get the attitude towards Palin. Not that I’m a big supporter, but from what I understand she’s the huge draw for McCain rallies. I daresay this is one reason why the two of them appear together so often – I think the possibility of a Palin-only rally outnumbering a solo-McCain rally is very realistic.

That popularity isn’t tied to the campaign, it’s tied to her. So funny that we decried the appearance of a cult of personality around Obama – complete with allegations of empty sloganering – but Palin fits that description much better than Obama ever did.

If you’re running on the Republican ticket in Waywayanda in a couple years, and you find out Palin is available to speak/endorse you, you wouldn’t sign her on?

Do you think a Jew would have a chance in the Republican party? Given the Christian conservative base of the party I would doubt it.

I don’t think he’ll have much currency in the party after losing to Jean Shaheen.

I’ll throw out a potential Dark Horse – Pat McCrory of North Carolina, although he first needs to win a close contest for governor. If he prevails, in 2012 he’ll have 14 years as mayor of Charlotte plus a full term as governor of the county’s 10th or 11th largest state. And all this pre-supposes that the Rupublicans are willing to nominate an affable moderate.

For some reason, probably irrational, I do think a Jew could win.

But they accepted on in 2008, didn’t they?

When the dust settles, I think the more rational Republicans are going to blame Palin, the outsider, for a lot of their problems. Reasonable Republicans like George Will are dumping her during the campaign - imagine what will happen after. She’ll run, because she’s an attention whore, but she won’t get far.

Huckabee is a possibility, since he is an evangelical and has a populist side, which will be very useful. Romney is a possibility, because of his business background, but that depends on where the economy is in 2012. But it really depends on who emerges from the ashes as a leader, and if the party decides to move to the center or to the right. The love for Palin now shows that lots of the party thinks they can win by appealing to their shrinking base, but a big loss might make this crowd lose control. In that case, a governor we don’t know much about today might be the candidate as a new face.

BTW, don’t count out anyone not in office. In fact, that helps, since that kind of person can spend his time making friends and earning favors by campaigning for people. Remember Nixon was out of office for 8 years, and he used his time well.

Yet, as far as I can tell, it’s the Palin’s and Huckabees that actually deliver the bulk of the votes.
I’d not be too surprised to see Palin/Huckabee or Huckabee/Palin in 2012, with the so called fiscally conservative/socially liberal wing of the party cast out of the ‘big tent’ entirely.