# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/201 "2008-10-12T19:04:09Z")
> [@Liberal](#): > > We’re probably just both getting old. 😉 I whole-heartedly agree with **Guinastasia**. I’ve read your posts over the last couple of years, but for the last 10 months or so you have been on your game, man. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/202 "2008-10-12T22:33:24Z")
> [@Biggirl](#): > > [Sarah booed roundly at Philly game.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ2DB8pNvJ8) Not actually all that significant – we are not only the town that booed Santa, we’re _proud_ of being the town that booed Santa. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/203 "2008-10-12T22:58:32Z")
I think Liberal is one of those folks that gets your goat until they happen to be on your team, and then you reconsider their unique talents and disposition. I’ve also enjoyed the Liberal wit applied in service of a candidate I favor. But I’m sure we’ll disagree on something soon. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/204 "2008-10-13T00:34:23Z")
> [@Liberal](#): > > We’re probably just both getting old. 😉 Hey-speak for yourself, Grampa! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/205 "2008-10-13T00:42:32Z")
> [@stolichnaya](#): > > I think Liberal is one of those folks that gets your goat until they happen to be on your team, and then you reconsider their unique talents and disposition. That seems to be the case. I, for one, see no reason to cast aside my six years of experience with **Liberal** simply because he plans to vote for the same presidential candidate as I do. While I do have some limited curiousity as to why he does not plan to vote for Bob Barr, it’s not very much curiousity. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/206 "2008-10-13T00:52:49Z")
**Liberal** runs hot and cold with me-sometimes I want to strangle him-sometimes he’s pretty cool. Who knows? Maybe he’s the real “maverick?” _runs and hides_ ---
**Author:** ![AuntiePam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@AuntiePam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AuntiePam)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/207 "2008-10-13T01:56:03Z")
I’ve been watching TV most of the day (football, on three networks). I’ve seen several Obama ads, but not one single McCain ad. It’s probably silly to make something of this, but it makes me wonder if he’s giving up on Iowa like he did Michigan, or if he’s running low on money. The last map I saw (Friday) showed Iowa as leaning toward Obama, but it’s not in the bag. Now just wait. I’m switching over to AMC now and there’ll probably be six McCain ads. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/208 "2008-10-13T02:04:13Z")
> [@AuntiePam](#): > > The last map I saw (Friday) showed Iowa as leaning toward Obama, but it’s not in the bag. Nate Silver has Obama as a 99% favorite to win Iowa at this point. If that is not “in the bag”, I do not know what is. > **[Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News](https://abcnews.com/politics)** > > ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/209 "2008-10-13T03:54:00Z")
I’ve been confused about the money stuff. Putting together the Presidential campaign money along with money given to the RNC but under Team McCain control McCain started off September at least with more money than Team Obama. Most of it was in RNC coffers but it was there. Yet clearly Obama is outspending McCain. It doesn’t seem to add up. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/210 "2008-10-13T04:15:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’ve been confused about the money stuff. Putting together the Presidential campaign money along with money given to the RNC but under Team McCain control McCain started off September at least with more money than Team Obama. Most of it was in RNC coffers but it was there. > > Yet clearly Obama is outspending McCain. It doesn’t seem to add up. AFAIK the problem is that suddenly even more representative and senatorial races are competitive now. (like Al Franken suddenly being ahead of Coleman in Minnesota) It could be that, while there is no official word, the RNC is spending less that it should in the presidential race because it is now trying to prevent something that could be horrible for a would be McCain administration: a Democratic congress with veto proof majorities. This BTW is one item that causes me to be less scared of the future if by any chance McCain manages to squeak in. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/211 "2008-10-13T04:22:17Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > It could be that, while there is no official word, the RNC is spending less that it should in the presidential race because it is now trying to prevent something that could be horrible for a would be McCain administration: a Democratic congress with veto proof majorities. I don’t think McCain, nor the RNC, will have to worry about this for much longer. > [@](#): > > This BTW is one item that causes me to be less scared of the future if by any chance McCain manages to squeak in. There will be no squeaking. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/212 "2008-10-13T04:30:40Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > For Obama to break 400 he would need to win at least one state McCain has a lead of more than 10 points. Even with every state that is either a toss up, or leaning McCain, Obama will only get 395. So unless if by magic, social conservatives start voting for Obama, he won’t make it. With all the independents and Democrats on his side he’ll make it to 395 but no further. Actually, with the numbers from [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) and [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) (ignoring Texas’ +21 McCain, because only ARG thinks he has that much of a lead, everyone else says +9 or so), if Obama wins every state in which he currently trails by less than 10, he gets 446 votes, (AR is currently +10 McCain, but that doesn’t reflect the recent rally with Sen. Clinton and Gov. Beebe on Friday), losing AK, AL, ID, KS, KY, LA, ND, NE as a whole and CD-03, OK, SC, SD, TN, and UT. Not that that has a chance in hell of happening, but he can get comfortably over 400 without an 11+ point swing in any state. Doing the same thing for McCain, you get… 280, losing every state northeast of OH/WV/VA but Maine’s north district (!), DC, WA, OR, CA, MI, WI, MN (the latter two only just barely), IA, and HI. Ouchie. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/213 "2008-10-13T05:23:41Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Actually, with the numbers from [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) and [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) (ignoring Texas’ +21 McCain, because only ARG thinks he has that much of a lead, everyone else says +9 or so), if Obama wins every state in which he currently trails by less than 10, he gets 446 votes, (AR is currently +10 McCain, but that doesn’t reflect the recent rally with Sen. Clinton and Gov. Beebe on Friday), losing AK, AL, ID, KS, KY, LA, ND, NE as a whole and CD-03, OK, SC, SD, TN, and UT. Not that that has a chance in hell of happening, but he can get comfortably over 400 without an 11+ point swing in any state. > > Doing the same thing for McCain, you get… 280, losing every state northeast of OH/WV/VA but Maine’s north district (!), DC, WA, OR, CA, MI, WI, MN (the latter two only just barely), IA, and HI. Ouchie. Using [Fivethirtyeight.com](http://Fivethirtyeight.com) numbers, a ten point shift would give Obama 410, because they have Louisiana and Arkansas within 10 points. I see you’re giving him TX and AZ, but that is still premature. Point is not to get our hopes up for a 400 EV blowout. I’ll take anything over 270. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/214 "2008-10-13T07:36:11Z")
Oh my lord, every time I start feeling flickers of optimism that Obama might actually win, I do what I can to stomp the shit out of them, and start reeling off the dozens of perfectly reasonable reasons why Obama hasn’t a chance in hell. Deeply mistrusting polls tops my list, but dear me, when I click on the links to these places (such as [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) and [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com)) my heart flutters. And then too, [I read things like this](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/12/redstate-co-founder-cant_n_133970.html), regarding Joshua Trevino’s blog. Trevino is a co-founder of [RedState](http://www.redstate.com/), the kind of place that would feature a sleezy article such as “Did Bill Ayers “Ghostwrite” Barack Obama’s First Memoir?”. Trevino writes: > [@](#): > > In the end, I couldn’t do it. My California ballot arrived in the mail today, and I opened it fully intending to vote for John McCain. I filled out the state propositions first – yes on 8, no on everything proposing a new bond or new spending – then the local offices, straight Republican excepting Kevin Johnson for (nonpartisan) Sacramento mayor. Finally, the vote for President of the United States: an academic exercise in California, where Barack Obama will surely win by a crushing margin. But good citizenship demands voting as if it matters.\*\* Do I believe in John McCain? Not as much as I used to. Do I believe in Sarah Palin? Despite my early enthusiasm for her, now not at all. Do I believe in the national Republican Party? Not in the slightest\*\* – even though I see no meaningful alternative to it. So, my choice for President in 2008, scrawled in my ballot as an act of futile protest, is Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. If nothing else, I am confident this is the first of several votes I will cast for him in years to come. Be still my beating heart! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/215 "2008-10-13T14:00:27Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > For Obama to break 400 he would need to win at least one state McCain has a lead of more than 10 points. Even with every state that is either a toss up, or leaning McCain, Obama will only get 395. So unless if by magic, social conservatives start voting for Obama, he won’t make it. With all the independents and Democrats on his side he’ll make it to 395 but no further. I think we’d have to have one more major swing of sentiment in Obama’s direction for him to exceed 381 EVs. To get to 381, Obama would have to sweep the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific states (treating Alaska as Rockies, not Pacific), pick up CO, NM, and NV and Omaha in the Rockies and Plains states, and win VA, WV, NC, and FL in the Southeast. After that, it’s a long way to his next-best pickup opportunities, which I would guess to be Montana and Georgia. If Obama wins the popular vote by \<10%, I’d say 381 EVs is his max. ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/216 "2008-10-13T14:54:31Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > AFAIK the problem is that suddenly even more representative and senatorial races are competitive now. (like Al Franken suddenly being ahead of Coleman in Minnesota) > > It could be that, while there is no official word, the RNC is spending less that it should in the presidential race because it is now trying to prevent something that could be horrible for a would be McCain administration: a Democratic congress with veto proof majorities. Or perhaps they’re spending less in the presidential campaign because they’re effectively giving up on McCain and are now trying to ensure they retain enough votes in the Senate to be able to filibuster against the worst\* results of a Democratic White House & Congress.\*\* \*By their lights of course \*\*This probably isn’t what’s happening, but a man can dream, can’t he? ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/217 "2008-10-13T15:01:49Z")
I am such a wreck, that I wonder if the Dow coming back is good or bad for Obama. And…did everybody hear the sound bites from the Clintons (appearing with Biden) in Pennsylvania yesterday? Bill said: Hillary’s worked soooo hard for Obama, she’s just wonderful. Hillary said: she hadn’t worked in the “trenches” for 35 years on truth, justice and the American way just to see some Republican squander it all. Mentions of Obama were few and far between. These people are really pissing me off. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/218 "2008-10-13T15:15:16Z")
How many here are willing to wager that if Obama doesn’t win with at least 300 EVs, the Republicans will spin it as a weak victory with no mandate? ETA: I meant 350, not 300 ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/219 "2008-10-13T15:37:17Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > To get to 381, Obama would have to sweep the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific states (treating Alaska as Rockies, not Pacific), pick up CO, NM, and NV and Omaha in the Rockies and Plains states, and win VA, WV, NC, and FL in the Southeast.. That’s difficult, but I think quite possible. > [@Lakai](#): > > Using [Fivethirtyeight.com](http://Fivethirtyeight.com) numbers, a ten point shift would give Obama 410, because they have Louisiana and Arkansas within 10 points. I see you’re giving him TX and AZ, but that is still premature. Point is not to get our hopes up for a 400 EV blowout. I’ll take anything over 270. I said he wouldn’t win LA, and I explained why I counted AR. I know winning TX and AZ is premature, but that was the point of the exercise: the theoretical maximum, not the most likely outcome. I’ll be okay-ish with 270, but I wants as many votes as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/220 "2008-10-13T15:44:19Z")
McCain’s campaign has released parts of McCain’s big [campaign re-launch speech](http://thepage.time.com/mccains-monday-remarks-in-albuquerque/). Apparently, with his negative campaign faltering and a new plan required, McCain’s bold new direction for phoenix-like resurrection is… …a fully negative speech bitching about how much Obama sucks. :dubious: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=12)