# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/301 "2008-10-20T00:54:15Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Reuters say that the Obama lead [is down to three.](http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081019?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true) > > I refuse to consider anyone forked until Election Day (or maybe even after). Reuters does report also that the electoral map is giving Obama now 286 electoral votes, with 97 as toss ups. Gallup was showing a tightening race 2 days ago, but suddenly today Gallup has Obama with a 7 point difference over McCain. > **[Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded)](https://news.gallup.com/poll/111121/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Expanded.aspx)** > > Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and... ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/302 "2008-10-20T01:45:11Z")
The trend in RCP is Obama going down from 8 to 5 points ahead. I suspect McCain’s performance during the third debate helped stifle some of Obama’s momentum. At least I hope it wasn’t Bill Ayers. I don’t know how much longer I can handle analyzing polls every day. My problem is that I have no fate in the idiots who were holding out on Obama because they don’t trust him to help blue collar workers. I feel like that for every retarded lie Fox news or McCain throws in the air, there will be some idiot who will decide not to vote for Obama. Election day can’t come soon enough. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/303 "2008-10-20T02:01:44Z")
RealClearPolitics is becoming less reliable. They don’t publish their methodology, and they cherry-pick polls that favor McCain. Their prediction is basically the worst-case scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/304 "2008-10-20T02:27:54Z")
> [@waterj2](#): > > I think you’ve got it wrong. It looks like to me, Obama has to get 6 electoral votes from any category other than strong Dem. (in addition to all the strong Dem. EVs) to seal the deal. Or, conversely, McCain has to run the table on all the weak, barely, or tied states, with the exception of being able to lose ND (NV and WV would tie the EV count, but the Dems. have, I believe, the votes in the House to guarantee an Obama victory in that case). Yes, you’re right, I screwed up my adding. If he gets ND (tie) he has 174 NV (5) , MO (11), OH (20), NC (15) and FL(27) are barely dem. McCain winning these would give him another 78 (for a total of 252) This leaves him 18 EVs to get from the weak Dem states of CO (9) and VA( 13) He’d need to get both of these. So he would not have to get any strong Dem states. How does this look? ---
**Author:** ![Peanut\_Gallery](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/838e76/32.png) [@Peanut\_Gallery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peanut_Gallery)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/305 "2008-10-20T03:03:28Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > How does this look? Pretty darned forked. Maybe turn it over for a few more minutes on the cool side of the grill… just for the smoky taste. Mmm. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/306 "2008-10-20T16:37:59Z")
If McCain can’t turn Virginia around, nothing else really matters. From today’s Rasmussen: > [@](#): > > Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs). > > Just one week ago, Obama held a three percentage point lead but Obama has been dramatically outspending McCain on television advertising in this critical state. The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. ---
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/307 "2008-10-20T16:48:51Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > If McCain can’t turn Virginia around, nothing else really matters. From today’s Rasmussen: Whats the margin of error in that poll? ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/308 "2008-10-20T17:59:19Z")
> [@Jolly\_Roger](#): > > Whats the margin of error in that poll? +/- 3 percentage points. ---
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/309 "2008-10-20T18:30:11Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > +/- 3 percentage points. Well, that looks good for Obama but not perfect. Is VA that critical? Another poster said if Mccain doesn;t take it its over. But surely thats only a speculation. I’m hoping I’m wrong in worrying. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/310 "2008-10-20T18:30:13Z")
Unless we get a dead girl / live boy situation coming up, here’s how I see it. Obama simply has too many safe states to lose this one. Give him every state to the northeast of Maryland, Give him Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, Iowa, and the West Coast and Hawaii. I’d bet any dollar amount that he wins every one of these states. Remember this is leaving out a whole host of states where Obama is ahead. Give McCain the rest of the states except the following tossups: FL, VA, NC, MO, NM, CO, OH, NV. Any single one of those states (with the above states) will put Obama over 270 with the exception of CO and NM, which would have to be won together. That means that McCain can only afford to lose New Mexico or Colorado. He has to win every one of those above states. That is damn near impossible. If McCain loses one of them (or both NM and CO) then he’s done. The only potential weakness Obama has would be MN. PA seems to have come home. McCain is simply hoping for a miracle now. Not to mention that he’s down by several points in almost all of those above toss-up states. He’s pretty much tied in OH, but even if he were tied in them all he’d need a lot of luck to win. It would take some really damning revelation about Obama to make him lose ever single one of those states. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/311 "2008-10-20T18:39:54Z")
> [@Jolly\_Roger](#): > > Well, that looks good for Obama but not perfect. Is VA that critical? Another poster said if Mccain doesn;t take it its over. But surely thats only a speculation. > > I’m hoping I’m wrong in worrying. It’s absolutely critical. As one of the network newspeople said just a day or so ago, if Virginia is called for Obama right after the polls close, we can all go to bed early. There is no realistic way McCain can win without Virginia. Ed ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/312 "2008-10-20T18:43:14Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > RealClearPolitics is becoming less reliable. They don’t publish their methodology, and they cherry-pick polls that favor McCain. Their prediction is basically the worst-case scenario. Which is why they’re the first place I check. It’s a bit easier to be optimistic when the worst case scenario is still good. This is a weird cycle. It seems like two major aspects of Bush '00 have been split. Obama has the massive get-out-the-vote campaign, while McCain inherited the negative innuendo machine. Other than Palin energizing a large segment of the base, how does the Republican vote-getting-out machine compare to '00 and '04? Is the McCain campaign using the the “terrorist,” “socialist,” and “voter fraud” scare to motivate people to get out? Do the Republicans have as large a network this time around? I think that’s what scares me the most. A lot of attention has been paid to Obama’s efforts, just as a lot of attention was paid to Bush’s. I don’t want to just blithely assume McCain’s is pawltry in comparison – especially as I haven’t heard anything about it. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/313 "2008-10-20T18:51:52Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Do the Republicans have as large a network this time around? I think that’s what scares me the most. A lot of attention has been paid to Obama’s efforts, just as a lot of attention was paid to Bush’s. I don’t want to just blithely assume McCain’s is pawltry in comparison – especially as I haven’t heard anything about it. The only things I’ve been readin about the McCain machine have been from 538’s [On the Road](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/on%20the%20road) series where Nate & Co. go from state to state, stopping by at campaign offices throughout the country. Now, not every time, but often enough Nate reports that McCain offices are near vacant, closed, give him a run-around, etc. 538’s commentary is definately left-biased but he does seem as if he sincerely wants to get a full accounting of each campaign’s ground efforts and the story doesn’t look good for Camp McCain. On the other hand, I’ve heard several state Republican officials say “Obama won’t know what hit him when we fire up the GOTV machine come November” so who knows? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/314 "2008-10-20T19:04:02Z")
I stepped away and didn’t get to edit. Wanted to say that 538’s _commentary_ was that of a guy for Obama but their numbers are (from all I’ve heard) solid. I didn’t want to disparage the meat of the site. Also, if you only want to read one “On the Road” entry about the McCain operation, [read this one](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html). ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/315 "2008-10-20T19:35:22Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > On the other hand, I’ve heard several state Republican officials say “Obama won’t know what hit him when we fire up the GOTV machine come November” so who knows? Compared to Obama’s current weeks of canvassing and planned blitzkrieg GOTV efforts right before election day, if the GOP is waiting until Nov. to launch theirs (what is it, more incendiary robo-calls?), they truly are forked. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/316 "2008-10-20T19:44:18Z")
> [@Jolly\_Roger](#): > > Well, that looks good for Obama but not perfect. Is VA that critical? Another poster said if Mccain doesn;t take it its over. But surely thats only a speculation. > > I’m hoping I’m wrong in worrying. It is fairly safe to assume that Obama will get at least the Kerry states and pick up IA and NM. That gets the count to 264. Virginia puts it over 270. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/317 "2008-10-20T19:45:00Z")
speculation is that gen. powell’s endorsement will add more virginia votes. pulling in military and independent voters. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/318 "2008-10-20T19:49:53Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > It’s absolutely critical. Nah, Virginia is sufficient but not necessary. There are plenty of ways for Obama to pull it off without the Commonwealth. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/319 "2008-10-20T20:05:28Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Nah, Virginia is sufficient but not necessary. There are plenty of ways for Obama to pull it off without the Commonwealth. It’s critical to McCain, not Obama. Obama has several paths without VA but McCain doesn’t have any which are plausible. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/320 "2008-10-20T20:19:44Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > It’s critical to McCain, not Obama. Obama has several paths without VA but McCain doesn’t have any which are plausible. Yes, that’s what I meant. Ed [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=17)