# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/421 "2008-10-23T14:28:37Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Sure, other polls differ, but all my instincts tell me this ain’t over yet by any means, and Obama supporters would be foolish to count their chickens just yet. (Many of them seem to think the election is all but won.) Of course it’s not over 'til it’s over, but I’d be curious to see a cite for this thinking, linked to stated decisions not to actually go out and vote because of it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/422 "2008-10-23T14:31:06Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Seems like he may not be even mildly forked. > > [AP SHOCK POLL: OBAMA, MCCAIN EVEN…](http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081022/D93VPI9O0.html) > > [IBD/TIPP: CLOSE…](http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178) > > Sure, other polls differ, but all my instincts tell me this ain’t over yet by any means, and Obama supporters would be foolish to count their chickens just yet. (Many of them seem to think the election is all but won.) Y’know, I know that it is a long thread, but maybe, just maybe, reading just the last one day’s worth of posts might be worth your while. Jus sayin’ is all. :rolleyes: But to recap for you … the all RV data in the AP poll was _a 10 point Obama lead_ but their “likely voter” screen apparently filters out mostly/exclusively Obama supporters. So this outlier of a plethora of polling should be believed if one thinks that McCain supporters are pumped and will all get to the polls while Obama supporters will mainly not bother voting. If you think the opposite then it is not wrong but it points to an Obama victory by a wide margin. Meanwhile feel free to enjoy the possible outliers the other way. The [Big Ten Battleground](http://www.bigtenpoll.org/) results and [the Quinipiac](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223) results. The truth probably lies somewhere between the AP’s near dead heat and the massive blow-out of these two … which would be a solid Obama win with an electoral blow-out. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/423 "2008-10-23T14:56:53Z")
There have been many problems pointed out with the poll samples/likely voter issue, but I think there is another that is not getting enough play–this is the first election in my life where people for one candidate want to be able to tell their grandchildren that they voted. Even in states where the outcome is a foregone conclusion–states where people tend to stay home–people are registering for the first time because they want to be part of this, they want to say they helped make it happen. So I tend to think even “complacent” Obama supporters will come out because of the sheer symbolism of the thing, and that that is will also probably skew results some. ---
**Author:** ![shy\_guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a6a055/32.png) [@shy\_guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shy_guy)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/424 "2008-10-23T15:02:48Z")
I’m actually a bit skeptical of that, Manda, although it would be nice. I will say that I don’t think that the media telling everybody that the race is neck-and-neck is a bad thing; it seems as though the worst think that could happen is for Obama to wind up like Bart Simpson on election day - losing because all of his supporters assumed he would win and didn’t vote. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/425 "2008-10-23T15:16:30Z")
> [@shy\_guy](#): > > I’m actually a bit skeptical of that, Manda, although it would be nice. I’m not skeptical of it. I don’t even foresee much drop off in voting out west if the networks as good as call it after the central time zone’s polls close. Elections are often called referenda on such and such an issue and this election has such clearly drawn differences between the candidates that I can see anger, hope, and good ol’ all-American bandwagonism (Go Rays! 😉 ) bringing out voters in vast numbers, even if an objective look at the results would say that your vote for the top of the ticket won’t make a difference. “I’ll show those bastards,” has a long history of driving people to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/426 "2008-10-23T15:16:34Z")
It’s the general, and you only count once, so nobody is officially forked until they reach the Great Electoral Buffet. And we will have some interesting data on whether polling is at all useful in a rapidly dwindling number of days. At this point, however, I am confortable saying that Hillary is officially forked. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/427 "2008-10-23T16:44:32Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > I’m not skeptical of it. I don’t even foresee much drop off in voting out west if the networks as good as call it after the central time zone’s polls close. Elections are often called referenda on such and such an issue and this election has such clearly drawn differences between the candidates that I can see anger, hope, and good ol’ all-American bandwagonism (Go Rays! 😉 ) bringing out voters in vast numbers, even if an objective look at the results would say that your vote for the top of the ticket won’t make a difference. “I’ll show those bastards,” has a long history of driving people to the polls. I also think that the motivation to take part in a(n) historical moment could be a milder form of “I’ll show those bastards,” in the sense that here’s the one real chance in the history of this country’s elections that voters have had to make this happen – and with an extremely viable candidate, I might add – and they’re not going to let it slip away. That’s what some people tell me when I go down to PA and work for the Obama campaign weekends. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/428 "2008-10-23T17:04:13Z")
Well, he has brought out some [Hollywood heavy hitters](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8fXaJmDbsY) to breathe some new life into his campaign ads. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![pepperlandgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f17d59/32.png) [@pepperlandgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pepperlandgirl)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/429 "2008-10-23T17:13:25Z")
[The NRSC thinks McCain is forked!](http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/NRSC_ad_assumes_Obama_win.html?showall) Vote for Elizabeth Dole, or else Obama will have a blank check! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/430 "2008-10-23T17:22:56Z")
> [@pepperlandgirl](#): > > [Chuck Todd claims that there is real tension between McCain and Palin–and they also lack chemistry (forgive the Dkos link, but it includes the vid and the trasncript).](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/22/18514/838/634/639069) My favorite part: \*you almost wonder why they wanted them sitting next to each other. \* I’m not sure I understand this line from the linked piece: > [@](#): > > Wow. Chuck then wonders if her statement that she’ll release her medical records means she’s going to pull a Bullworth. What the heck is a Bulworth? Does that mean she’s going to arrange for someone to assassinate her? ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/431 "2008-10-23T17:27:31Z")
I think “pulling a Bullworth” is just insiderspeak for rebelling against one’s own staff and going renegade to the press/public. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/432 "2008-10-23T17:39:31Z")
Ah. After I posted my question, I then began to wonder if “pulling a Bulworth” involved making out with Halle Berry. That would be pretty cool, although wouldn’t play well to her base. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/433 "2008-10-23T17:50:45Z")
Either way, Todd is _such_ a geek. It makes me happy. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/434 "2008-10-23T18:24:25Z")
I wasn’t sure which thread to ask this, but this seems a good one. BBC TV tonight has been in Missouri. Someone interviewed – I think it was a radio deejay – mentioned that McCain was up 1% in Missouri, making it a statistical dead heat. Is this true? Palin will be in Saint Louis on Friday, apparently. BBC mentioned a _bunch_ of factories were going to close down between now and the election. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/435 "2008-10-23T18:24:59Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > After I posted my question, I then began to wonder if “pulling a Bulworth” involved making out with Halle Berry. That would be pretty cool, although wouldn’t play well to her base. I think it’d be cool if Palin goes off script, especially if she dresses gangsta and delivers her renegade message in rhyme, but it’d be _extra_ cool if she trades tongues with Halle. ---
**Author:** ![Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/436 "2008-10-23T18:27:18Z")
NOT so cool if McCain trades tongues with Halle. ---
**Author:** ![pepperlandgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f17d59/32.png) [@pepperlandgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pepperlandgirl)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/437 "2008-10-23T18:36:34Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > I wasn’t sure which thread to ask this, but this seems a good one. BBC TV tonight has been in Missouri. Someone interviewed – I think it was a radio deejay – mentioned that McCain was up 1% in Missouri, making it a statistical dead heat. Is this true? Palin will be in Saint Louis on Friday, apparently. BBC mentioned a _bunch_ of factories were going to close down between now and the election. MO is currently leaning Dem and has been since last week. Most polls have Obama ahead, and the few that have McCain ahead there are within the MOE, so are basically a tie. [Fivethirtyeight projects Obama taking the state.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/438 "2008-10-23T18:55:28Z")
> [@pepperlandgirl](#): > > MO is currently leaning Dem and has been since last week. Most polls have Obama ahead, and the few that have McCain ahead there are within the MOE, so are basically a tie. [Fivethirtyeight projects Obama taking the state.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) Thanks. Sounds promising. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/439 "2008-10-23T19:11:23Z")
> [@Renee](#): > > I just discovered the freepers a couple of days ago. It’s mind-boggling. There seems to be absolutely no counterpoint to the absurdity there–it’s all crazy, all the time. I can’t even be discouraged by it, it’s just too weird. They’ve also suggested that the slaughter of the bear cub was committed by Obama supporters to drum up support and make the McCain camp look bad. Although compared to this latest theory, that sounds quite rational. (I seriously think that the Freepers make the Left Behind folk look sane-or at least, the Freepers are scarier) > [@TWDuke](#): > > Maybe you were kidding, but I took a look at some [juvenile moose](http://images.google.com/images?gbv=2&hl=en&q=juvenile+moose&btnG=Search+Images) pictures (since the depicted beasts don’t have antlers). They’re “lumpier” than the scarf creatures. But the ears on those things don’t seem at all right for [donkeys](http://images.google.com/images?gbv=2&hl=en&q=donkey&btnG=Search+Images). They like [burros](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burro#Burro) to me. (Oh, and Obama is totally kick ass in the [7-Election](http://www.7-election.com/)!) ---
**Author:** ![Tabithina](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f04885/32.png) [@Tabithina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabithina)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/440 "2008-10-23T19:25:17Z")
We are working our butts off here to turn Missouri blue. In our area, we still have lots of undecided voters but they are starting to break for Obama. Going to talk to voters in person seems to help more than calling them, because they are more willing to talk/listen. Things do look good. 🙂 Now, if I could only stop stress-eating. ::backs away from cookie jar:: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=23)