# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/461 "2008-10-24T01:45:33Z")
Hell, I didn’t even know Andy Griffith was still alive. Damn. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/462 "2008-10-24T01:56:24Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Hell, I didn’t even know Andy Griffith was still alive. Damn. I was just thinking the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/463 "2008-10-24T02:02:16Z")
The grandchildren of Barry “Mr. Conservative” Goldwater, along with several Goldwater cousins, [are voting for Barack Obama](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cc-goldwater/why-mccain-has-lost-our-v_b_137150.html) > [@](#): > > Being Barry Goldwater’s granddaughter and living in Arizona, one would assume that I would be voting for our state’s senator, John McCain. I am still struck by certain ‘dyed in the wool’ Republicans who are on the fence this election, as it seems like a no-brainer to me. > > Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting the Republican presidential candidates this year. We believe strongly in what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics. > > . . . > > There always have been a glimmer of hope that someday, someone would “race through the gate” full steam in Goldwater style. Unfortunately, this hasn’t happened, and the Republican brand has been tarnished in a shameless effort to gain votes and appeal to the lowest emotion, fear. Nothing about McCain, except for maybe a uniform, compares to the same ideology of what Goldwater stood for as a politician. The McCain/Palin plan is to appear diverse and inclusive, using women and minorities to push an agenda that makes us all financially vulnerable, fearful, and less safe. > > . . . > > Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America needs to regain it’s standing in the world, that’s why we’re going to support Barack Obama. I think that Obama has shown his ability and integrity. > > After the last eight years, there’s a lot of clean up do. Roll up your sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up with you. Forked. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/464 "2008-10-24T02:05:28Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Seems like he may not be even mildly forked. > > [AP SHOCK POLL: OBAMA, MCCAIN EVEN…](http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081022/D93VPI9O0.html) > > [IBD/TIPP: CLOSE…](http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178) > > Sure, other polls differ, but all my instincts tell me this ain’t over yet by any means, and Obama supporters would be foolish to count their chickens just yet. (Many of them seem to think the election is all but won.) Nate Silver looked at the demographic breakdown of this poll and found that it has McCain winning the 18-24 year olds by a 74-22 margin. No, that is NOT a typo. That is what you get using their “likely” voter model. Who knew that McCain was riding such a wave of young voter support? > **[Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News](https://abcnews.com/politics)** > > ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/465 "2008-10-24T02:29:53Z")
Yeah, I was playing around with that, too… It looks like they probably had either 23 or 27 folks in that demographic who responded to the survey-- Any other number that could lead to those percentages would have been too high to lead to that much of a statistical fluke. Frankly, I’m not sure why anyone would even publish numbers from a sample that small-- Just leave that line blank, and put in a footnote that there’s not enough data. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/466 "2008-10-24T04:00:34Z")
Hmm. ABC sez [Palin is pretty comfortable about Pennsylvania,](http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-guarantee.html) for some reason. A conservative commenting on it says that “If they do they win it all, and pretty comfortably. Those internals must be looking pretty good. Likewise, the frenzy in the press makes it pretty clear Obama is beginning to sweat.” The part that interests me most in that comment is the first sentence. What is the logic behind such a statement? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/467 "2008-10-24T04:05:26Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > FiveThirtyEight just pushed Obama’s odds of winning to more than 96 percent, from their previous hovering level of around 93 percent. Bear in mind that Mr. Silver’s “winning percentage” estimate is based on simulations run according to the most recent polls. He is not saying Obama is 96%likely to win the election. He is saying that he would be 96% likely to win **if the election were held today.** Obviously, a horrible gaffe or something could change that. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/468 "2008-10-24T04:10:01Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Hmm. ABC sez [Palin is pretty comfortable about Pennsylvania,](http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-guarantee.html) for some reason. A conservative commenting on it says that “If they do they win it all, and pretty comfortably. Those internals must be looking pretty good. Likewise, the frenzy in the press makes it pretty clear Obama is beginning to sweat.” > > The part that interests me most in that comment is the first sentence. What is the logic behind such a statement? He’s right. If McCain and Palin win Pennsylvania, they will of necessity have generated a huge swing, and that’s going to make itself felt elsewhere also. Of course, they don’t have a chance in hell of winning there, so it’s ultimately based on insanity and denial. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/469 "2008-10-24T04:10:06Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Bear in mind that Mr. Silver’s “winning percentage” estimate is based on simulations run according to the most recent polls. He is not saying Obama is 96%likely to win the election. He is saying that he would be 96% likely to win **if the election were held today.** > > Obviously, a horrible gaffe or something could change that. No. 538 runs a projection, not an “if the election was held today” exercise. Trendlines and all. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/470 "2008-10-24T04:37:21Z")
Now I know that I am obsessive about this but still, the longshot of Texas fascinates me. [Early voting](http://www.caller.com/news/2008/oct/22/early_vote/) in Texas is breaking records. > [@](#): > > Turnout in the 15 most populous counties in Texas is up, with 609,245 voters casting ballots during the first two days of early voting, said Secretary of State’s spokesman Randall Dillard. During the first day of early voting in 2004, 190,271 people voted, compared with 346,688 votes cast on Monday, he said. And the majority are apparently voting [Democrat.](http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/10/23/harris_countys_early_vote_may.html) In that link the Democrat representative claims a 3 to 1 margin, but even if the GOP representatives figures are right, the margin is still solidly Dem by over 30%. At least so far. In any case the overall turnout is expected to exceed historic norms significantly. > [@](#): > > We could well see more than 50 percent of the total vote voting early and more than 62 percent, perhaps 65 to 66 percent, participating in this election. Both would be records, indicative of tremendous interest in this election… Traditional likely voter screens need not apply under those conditions. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/471 "2008-10-24T04:47:33Z")
Hopefully that’ll help Noriega. I doubt Obama can overcome a 10-point lead by McCain, but he also doesn’t need to; a Dem from Texas, though, would bring us that much closer to 60, or even better, 61. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/472 "2008-10-24T05:14:55Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Hell, I didn’t even know Andy Griffith was still alive. Damn. Neither did he. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/473 "2008-10-24T05:33:41Z")
I know that I’m a broken record but those ten points are traditional “likely voter” ten points. Using Gallup’s national figures in which they simultaneously apply a traditional (count those who have voted in a past Presidential election) likely voter screen, and an expanded (count by intention to vote more) likely voter screen, which may be more accurate this cycle, we see that the difference is averaging about 4 or 5 points. Nationally. Texas in particular has a large group of Hispanics who have not voted before but who are both newly registered and newly engaged. Hispanics are leaning Obama heavily. And _many_ of them are not counted as “likely voters”. Remember that Hispanics came out in the primary to the tune of 900K when in the 2004 primary only 200K came out. Play it out this way: Hispanics have traditionally been 21% of Texas RVs. Now likely more but use that. Blacks 12%. Non-Hispanic White most of the rest. Assume all groups have the same percent turnout. Hispanics go a mere 60/40 Obama; Blacks 90/10 Obama; non-Hispanic Whites 60/40 McCain. That’s .6 x 21=12.6 and .9 x 12=10.8 and .4 x 67=26.8 for Obama and the rest for McCain. That results in a narrow Obama win of 50.2 to 49.8. More if the Hispanic margin is higher or if recent registration drives have indeed driven the Hispanic percent of all RV up at all. And more if the McCain margin among non-Hispanic Whites is less. Turn-out on election day _and before_ is key, but Texas going Blue would be awesome icing on the cake. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/474 "2008-10-24T06:19:15Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > He’s right. If McCain and Palin win Pennsylvania, they will of necessity have generated a huge swing, and that’s going to make itself felt elsewhere also. Of course, they don’t have a chance in hell of winning there, so it’s ultimately based on insanity and denial. I couldn’t tell you about the party internals but I was curious enough to look at what Pennsylvania did last election. It spent the month wavering between a Bush/Kerry tie and barely Kerry. Never went above Kerry +4, was at Kerry +1 on election day and Kerry won it by 2 points. Comparing that to Obama’s current double digit lead in the state, I have to wonder where this optimism is coming from that McCain can take the state. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/475 "2008-10-24T07:24:39Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Hell, I didn’t even know Andy Griffith was still alive. Damn. Not only alive, but getting [major](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0473308/) [roles](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1124388/)! ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/476 "2008-10-24T10:10:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Now I know that I am obsessive about this but still, the longshot of Texas fascinates me. > > [Early voting](http://www.caller.com/news/2008/oct/22/early_vote/) in Texas is breaking records.And the majority are apparently voting [Democrat.](http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/10/23/harris_countys_early_vote_may.html) In that link the Democrat representative claims a 3 to 1 margin, but even if the GOP representatives figures are right, the margin is still solidly Dem by over 30%. At least so far. In any case the overall turnout is expected to exceed historic norms significantly.Traditional likely voter screens need not apply under those conditions. Woohoo! I have a poorly thought out 20$ bet riding on TX going for Obama. (Hey, without risk, how’s it a bet?) This is the first glimmer of hope I’ve had in awhile of seeing my 20 again, accompanied by a friend. Not to mention, it would be nice for both my state and vote to simultaneously go for the winning presidential candidate just once in my life. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/477 "2008-10-24T10:48:34Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > ABC sez [Palin is pretty comfortable about Pennsylvania,](http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-guarantee.html) for some reason. Campaign rhetoric, man. Imagine a speech where a politician goes to a key state where he or she is obviously trailing by a significant amount, and tells supporters, “Your support is insufficient, so we don’t have a prayer in this state.” The McCain campaign does apparently believe they aren’t as far behind in Pennsylvania as everybody else thinks and may be getting closer, but Palin is trying to pump up her base and they are probably assuming a good deal of “if these trends continue…” ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/478 "2008-10-24T12:09:01Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Woohoo! I have a poorly thought out 20$ bet riding on TX going for Obama. (Hey, without risk, how’s it a bet?) This is the first glimmer of hope I’ve had in awhile of seeing my 20 again, accompanied by a friend. Not to mention, it would be nice for both my state and vote to simultaneously go for the winning presidential candidate just once in my life. Texas going blue would definitely make me smile, but tell me you got odds man! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/479 "2008-10-24T13:49:09Z")
True dat. Even I’d only take that bet with at least 5 to 1! It is true that Obama does not need Texas and should invest only in so far as it builds infrastructure for the future and helps downticket. But what a message it would send to win it! Turns out my numbers above are not quite right. They underestimate the Hispanic potential in Texas. Hispanics were [a larger share of Texas](http://www.wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/latino_voter_statistics/tx_lv.html) RVs in 2004 and 2006. Between 22 and 23%. Before recent registration drives. They are over 25% of Texas’s citizen voting age population. Their influence is decreased because they have historically not come out as much as non-Hispanic Whites. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/480 "2008-10-24T14:07:32Z")
> [@pepperlandgirl](#): > > That’s hot! [Little Mac](http://www.paradoxmind.com/1301/Civil%20War/George%20B.%20McClellan.jpg) wasn’t bad looking, but are you sure you want to see [Winfield Scott](http://www.nps.gov/sajh/historyculture/images/scott_at_West_Point.jpg) naked? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=25)