# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/801 "2008-10-30T14:52:14Z")
And Dang! [CNN/Time](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html) has Arizona slipping back away. Shoot. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/802 "2008-10-30T14:54:48Z")
Heh…if Obama takes Arizona, this election cycle transforms from standard electoral buttslam to presidential donkey punch. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/803 "2008-10-30T15:10:24Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I’d consider Lieberman a prominent Democrat. Yes, there’s an “I” after his name, but he’s still a Democrat. When one speaks at the Republican National Convention, one can no longer really be considered a Democrat, even an independent one. > [@DSeid](#): > > And Dang! CNN/Time has Arizona slipping back away. Shoot. You’re trusting RCP for this? Seriously? Plus, that’s a five-day poll; there’s a reason they almost always do 1-3 days. There have been more than 4 polls in AZ recently, and only two of them have had that big of a lead for McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/804 "2008-10-30T15:12:53Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Heh…if Obama takes Arizona, this election cycle transforms from standard electoral buttslam to presidential donkey punch. Heh. As long as we never get to the point of presidential don’t-pick-up-the-soap-in-the-prison-shower. Because then I’d have to start feeling bad for McCain. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/805 "2008-10-30T15:14:41Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Heh. As long as we never get to the point of presidential don’t-pick-up-the-soap-in-the-prison-shower. Because then I’d have to start feeling bad for McCain. That’s a more likely venue for Bush, Cheney, Alberto Gonzales, etc. ---
**Author:** ![mabes10](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc348/32.png) [@mabes10](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mabes10)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/806 "2008-10-30T15:29:58Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > Both Bill Clinton and Al Gore (!) are going to be campaigning for Obama in Florida over the next week. > > Obama’s infomercial was well-done and will get a lot of the news cycle for the next day or so. > > McCain needs to strip a point per day from Obama’s lead. > > We just found out that the economy contracted last quarter. > > It’s night, and we’re wearing sunglasses. > > Hit it. And Exxon just reported record profits. [http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon\_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes](http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/807 "2008-10-30T15:36:16Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > When one speaks at the Republican National Convention, one can no longer really be considered a Democrat, even an independent one. > You’re trusting RCP for this? Seriously? Plus, that’s a five-day poll; there’s a reason they almost always do 1-3 days. There have been more than 4 polls in AZ recently, and only two of them have had that big of a lead for McCain. You uh did notice the smiley? Seriously Arizona is a bit of a longshot even if it is within reach. I think of it as I think of Texas - Hispanic turnout is the key. But I’m guessing that in Arizona the Hispanic vote is a bit more split having more memories of McCain’s older positions rahter than the newer McCain who pandered to anti-immigrant sensibilities. Here is [Pollster](http://www.pollster.com/polls/az/08-az-pres-ge-mvo.php)’s all Arizona polling. 2 was the closest and the most recent was 4 (right at MOE). ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/808 "2008-10-30T16:34:26Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > When one speaks at the Republican National Convention, one can no longer really be considered a Democrat, even an independent one. Why? He calls himself a Democrat. He caucuses with the Democrats. He generally votes with the Democrats. He’s a Democrat. Ron Paul, Colin Powell, and Chris Buckley are Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/809 "2008-10-30T16:46:17Z")
More bad news from [538](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1029.html): > [@](#): > > Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama’s margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now … that’s where we have it, that’s where RCP has it, that where [Pollster.com](http://Pollster.com) has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama’s margin – but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy. > > Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it’s all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama’s progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table. > > My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama’s decided vote, and because most of Obama’s support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/810 "2008-10-30T16:57:16Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > More bad news from [538](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1029.html): Sounds like good news to me! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Beadalin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@Beadalin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beadalin)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/811 "2008-10-30T17:00:49Z")
I see that as of today, Obama has locked up the crucial [Peruvian Faith-Healer bloc](http://apnews.excite.com/article/20081029/D944DK801.html). Whew. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/812 "2008-10-30T17:01:43Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > While driving my 12 year old to the Doctor yesterday, one of the right-wing-nuts on the radio was saying “Next week, you can kiss freedom goodbye. Next week, you can say goodbye to the Constitution and freedom of speech. Next week, our radio shows will be off the air…” etc. " Presumably they are expecting McCain to win then. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/813 "2008-10-30T17:02:40Z")
> [@C3](#): > > Sounds like good news to me! 🙂 Obviously you’re a terrorist radical pinko muslim commie to think so. **C3** ’s name goes on the list! ---
**Author:** ![mabes10](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc348/32.png) [@mabes10](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mabes10)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/814 "2008-10-30T17:41:53Z")
> [@mabes10](#): > > And Exxon just reported record profits. > > [http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon\_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes](http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes) I just assumed this would help Obama as people struggling would not be happy about this, but I read McCain is saying Obama was for tax breaks for the industry which he opposed. But no details, what is the deal here? Regardless of the details, call me crazy but McCain attacking Obama as pro-oil doesn’t seem to be a winning strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/815 "2008-10-30T17:53:23Z")
> [@mabes10](#): > > Regardless of the details, call me crazy but McCain attacking Obama as pro-oil doesn’t seem to be a winning strategy. When God is on your side, there are no losing strategies. Right? … Right? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/816 "2008-10-30T18:00:14Z")
The hell with Exxon, [_the economy shrunk_ in the third quarter.](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/business/economy/31econ.html?hp) The most popular definition of a recession, if there’s anyone left on the board who didn’t know this, is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, so that’s halfway there. Nobody should be cheering it - it’s bad news, although not surprising after a few quarters of slowing growth - but it’s going to get news play and keep economic concerns at the forefront. October jobs data is due tomorrow, which I said earlier was [also going to be important](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10280730). Although in reality I think we’ve already seen that there is nothing that can knock this recent economic news off the front page and out of the minds of voters. Not charges that Obama has a friend who’s a terrorist, not charges that Obama has another friend who’s a terrorist, not presidential debates, a sexy vice presidential candidate, or anything else in this current climate. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/817 "2008-10-30T18:03:03Z")
> [@mabes10](#): > > I just assumed this would help Obama as people struggling would not be happy about this, but I read McCain is saying Obama was for tax breaks for the industry which he opposed. But no details, what is the deal here? He’s probably recycling the same, thoroughly debunked charge he made during the debates: > [@FactCheck.org](#): > > McCain: By the way, my friends, I know you grow a little weary with this back-and-forth. It was an energy bill on the floor of the Senate loaded down with goodies, billions for the oil companies, and it was sponsored by Bush and Cheney. You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one. You know who voted against it? Me. > > McCain is referring to the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which Obama did in fact vote for. Clinton raised this same charge against Obama during the Democratic primaries. It was misleading then and it’s equally misleading now. > > In fact, according to a Congressional Research Service report, **more tax breaks were taken away from oil companies than were given. Overall, the act resulted in a small net tax increase on the oil industry** : > > ``` > Congressional Research Service: The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT05, P.L. 109-58) included several oil and gas tax incentives, providing about $2.6 billion of tax cuts for the oil and gas industry. In addition, EPACT05 provided for $2.9 billion of tax increases on the oil and gas industry, for a net tax increase on the industry of nearly $300 million over 11 years. > > ``` > > As we said last year, the bill did contain $14.3 billion in tax breaks, but most of those went to electric utilities, and nuclear, and also to alternative fuels research > and subsidies for energy-efficient cars, homes and buildings – not to the oil industry. Emphasis added. ---
**Author:** ![mabes10](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc348/32.png) [@mabes10](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mabes10)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/818 "2008-10-30T18:03:57Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > The hell with Exxon, [_the economy shrunk_ in the third quarter.](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/business/economy/31econ.html?hp) The most popular definition of a recession, if there’s anyone left on the board who didn’t know this, is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, so that’s halfway there. > > Nobody should be cheering it - it’s bad news, although not surprising after a few quarters of slowing growth - but it’s going to get news play and keep economic concerns at the forefront. October jobs data is due tomorrow, which I said earlier was [also going to be important](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10280730). > > Although in reality I think we’ve already seen that there is nothing that can knock this recent economic news off the front page and out of the minds of voters. Not charges that Obama has a friend who’s a terrorist, not charges that Obama has another friend who’s a terrorist, not presidential debates, a sexy vice presidential candidate, or anything else in this current climate. Maybe Chris Berman can do it. McCain and Obama will be on Monday Night Football. Will he give them nicknames? > **[ESPN to air Obama and McCain interviews on MNF](https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3672799)** > > The presidential candidates are planning to participate in one-on-one interviews via satellite that would air during "Monday Night Football," the day before the election, ESPN has announced. ---
**Author:** ![mabes10](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc348/32.png) [@mabes10](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mabes10)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/819 "2008-10-30T18:08:33Z")
And I’m guessing McCain voted against it because they’re weren’t enough breaks for oil? > [@TWDuke](#): > > He’s probably recycling the same, thoroughly debunked charge he made during the debates: > Emphasis added. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/820 "2008-10-30T18:31:26Z")
[The Economist magazine has endorsed Barack Obama for president.](http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666&source=features_box_main) This seems significant considering the chief issue in this campaign right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=42)