# McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951 "2008-10-08T03:49:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/101 "2008-10-09T06:39:23Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > First of all, as much as I would love to believe all of these polls, [MSNBC](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27084438/) has an interesting article about how these polls might be WAY off base and that the large pollsters are getting nervous. Granted, some of the errors might work in Obama’s favor, but still… > > Sorry, but I still remember almost throwing up in my car on the drive home from work hearing that Florida went Democratic but then…wait, no…we have decided it is still too close to call…no, yes he won…wait…no, he didn’t win…wait, we still haven’t… > > Not until I see Obama’s hand on that bible being sworn in in January will I finally crack open that bottle champagne…until then…let’s just say I have been around long enough to see every dirty thieving trick in the book, and won’t be surprised to see new, improved dirty tricks again this year. Almost all the points in that article are also mentioned in the cites I pointed out, and 2 out of 3 factors mentioned in yours actually point to the Obama support as possibly being **way under counted**. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/102 "2008-10-09T07:40:05Z")
Also, according to that article and others, the Bradley effect - if it is significant at all - applies mostly to so-called undecided voters. Some of the [latest](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) [polls](http://www.gallup.com/poll/111040/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Over-McCain-Expands.aspx) show Obama with more than 50% of the vote, which would mean 100% of “undecideds” could be closet racists who would never vote for a black candidate and he’d still win the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/103 "2008-10-09T07:51:44Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Almost all the points in that article are also mentioned in the cites I pointed out, and 2 out of 3 factors mentioned in yours actually point to the Obama support as possibly being **way under counted**. And as much as I would love to say, as Carville said on Larry King tonight, that the election is essentially over and Obama has won…I have had my little heart stomped on too many times with early polls. Nobody can throw up a free lunch better than the Democrats and I am getting too old for this shit. I have a friend in California who is about ready to have a nervous breakdown (she is hooked on polls like a crack whore). I get hysterical emails from her if Obama’s numbers go down .001% in a suburb of Omaha…she makes me seem calm in comparison. In the words of Agent Mulder, “I want to believe…”, but have learned the hard way not to count those chickens just yet… ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/104 "2008-10-09T10:33:23Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > The context reads to me as if he meant to say “my fellow Americans.” He meant to say “my fellow citizens”, which is what he said in other stump speeches that used the same sentence — “this is the agenda I have set before my fellow citizens”. Candidates often give the same speech over and over at different stops. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/105 "2008-10-09T10:38:33Z")
> [@Frostillicus](#): > > I heard an interesting theory tonight from Gov. Mike Easley of NC that is exactly the opposite of the Bradley effect. He thinks that a lot of good ol’ boy types who have fallen on hard economic times will never, ever admit they are thinking of voting for Obama, and yet that is exactly what they will do in the privacy of the voting booth on Nov. 4th. I agree with him. I’ve hypothesized a phenomenon that I call “ballot shock”. The idea is that, whatever the campains may say or do, once people are in the booth, there will be a big bold **Republican** next to McCain’s name. If Obama has succeeded in tying him to Bush, then that one word may off-put a lot of voters at the last minute. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/106 "2008-10-09T10:57:20Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Really? There’s a thread in IMHO where lots of people are proudly proclaiming that they lie to pollsters. Threads like that and also the one where people are proudly proclaiming that they don’t vote, plus other factors, bolster my certainty that McCain will win in a landslide of epic proportions. I don’t care what the polls say. Polls lie, because people lie. > > I’d love to be wrong, but there’s nothing I’m reading or hearing anywhere that gives me actual hope that Obama will win. If I foolishly start feeling optimistic, there’s always a thread in IMHO that will bring me back down to earth. If someone had good reason to lie to pollsters about voting for Obama it would have been fellow democrats in the primaries, he outperformed polls by a 2-3% average. Why would republicans or independents lie for fear of being thought of as racists? “i like the other guy” is a perfectly valid non racist position to have. ---
**Author:** ![eleanorigby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ee7513/32.png) [@eleanorigby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eleanorigby)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/107 "2008-10-09T11:43:16Z")
My memories of the past two Presidential elections are people shouting, refusing to allow votes to be counted, people turned away from polling places incorrectly, people put off by the long, long lines at (and how odd that this should happen only in poorer sections of certain towns and cities–can’t imagine why) polling places and giving up and going home or polling places closing despite people in line. McCain doesn’t have to improve his message or his methods. All he has to do is sit tight and let the RNC stir shit and interfere with the voting process. It’s worked twice before-why not now? As others have said, I am an Obama supporter and I want him to win. I will believe that he has when he is inaugurated. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/108 "2008-10-09T12:19:33Z")
> [@eleanorigby](#): > > My memories of the past two Presidential elections are people shouting, refusing to allow votes to be counted, people turned away from polling places incorrectly, people put off by the long, long lines at (and how odd that this should happen only in poorer sections of certain towns and cities–can’t imagine why) polling places and giving up and going home or polling places closing despite people in line. > McCain doesn’t have to improve his message or his methods. All he has to do is sit tight and let the RNC stir shit and interfere with the voting process. It’s worked twice before-why not now? > > As others have said, I am an Obama supporter and I want him to win. I will believe that he has when he is inaugurated. I listened to a woman on [NPR](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95440887)from [Common Cause](http://www.commoncause.org/site/pp.asp?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&b=186966), is a group who “holds the powers that be responsible”…basically, they are a watchdog group looking into voter fraud. On average, the “stirring of shit” won’t effect turnout come elction day to any measurable degree. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/109 "2008-10-09T13:44:13Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > Interesting move by Obama. He’s really betting that these attacks won’t work. IMO, it’s a fairly safe bet – the attacks really only work to rile up the hardcore base (and it has the secondary effect of pissing off, and thus energizing, _Obama_’s hardcore base); everybody else’s attention is on the economy. For that matter, if McCain doesn’t have the balls to bring the mud to the last debate, some of his hardcore base will see it as wussing out and become less likely to get their butts to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/110 "2008-10-09T14:06:44Z")
> [@eleanorigby](#): > > …people put off by the long, long lines at (and how odd that this should happen only in poorer sections of certain towns and cities–can’t imagine why) polling places and giving up and going home… This time I think long lines might work out in favor of Obama. His voters are clearly more energized than McCain’s, and I think would be more willing to stick it out to cast their vote. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/111 "2008-10-09T14:44:18Z")
> [@Pashnish\_Ewing](#): > > This time I think long lines might work out in favor of Obama. His voters are clearly more energized than McCain’s, and I think would be more willing to stick it out to cast their vote. Also, I think there are far fewer hot button ballot issues this year. As far as I know, same sex marriage bans are only on the ballot in California and Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/112 "2008-10-09T16:20:39Z")
new tack just announced: [url=http://www.youtube.com/v/ONfJ7YSXE5w&hl=en&fs=1]renewed focus on Ayers and the so-called terrorist cronies. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/113 "2008-10-09T16:38:09Z")
[Here](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w) is the ad. McCain has truly lost his mind. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/114 "2008-10-09T16:52:04Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > And as much as I would love to say, as Carville said on Larry King tonight, that the election is essentially over and Obama has won…I have had my little heart stomped on too many times with early polls. Nobody can throw up a free lunch better than the Democrats and I am getting too old for this shit. True, but remember that in 2006 we did far better than expected. Plus Obama is a far better campaigner than either Gore or Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/115 "2008-10-09T17:16:26Z")
That ad is hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/116 "2008-10-09T20:33:44Z")
This has probably been done, but a perusal of Electoral [vote.com](http://vote.com) today tells me that in order to win, McCain will need to do **ALL OF** the following: 1. Keep support in all 5 states currently listed as “weak Republican” (MT, TX, MS, GA, WV) Likelihood: Good. 2. Keep support in 1 state that is currently listed as "barely Republican (IN) Likelihood: Good 3. Grab the one state that is currently listed as tied (NC) Likelihood: Could be - this state has gone repub the last 4 elections. 4. Switch ALL the 5 states that are currently “barely democrat” (NV, CO, MO, OH, FL) Likelihood: Probably not all of them. NV, MO and OH went for Clinton twice, and CO and FL went for Clinton once. These are not Republican locks by any stretch. 5. Switch one of the 4 states with more than 5 EV’s that are listed as “weak dem” (MN, WI, MI, VA) OR, switch both of NM and ME Likeihood: Not likely at all. NM is the only one of the 6 that went republican over the past 4 elections, and that was only by 1%. I don’t think they’ll suddenly love McCain now. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/117 "2008-10-09T21:13:59Z")
Yesterday McCain recieved an endorsement from Leonore Annenberg. The very same Annenberg who has funded the left-wing comie inspired agenda of unrepentant terrorist William Ayers through her foundation! Why is McCain palling around with this woman? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/118 "2008-10-09T21:40:16Z")
Anybody catcj Ayers Shirt in that Ad? **FREE MINDS** So thats what they are afraid of… :smack: ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2008, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/119 "2008-10-10T06:47:40Z")
Is even Appalachia going to flip [for](http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html) [Obama](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4887924.ece)? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2008, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951/120 "2008-10-10T10:42:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is even Appalachia going to flip [for](http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html) [Obama](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4887924.ece)? The only reason I’d believe an ARG poll is if it agreed with a bunch of more reputable polls. But at this point, I think Obama could pick up WV if he made just a few campaign stops there over the next few weeks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-not-as-forked-as-the-mccain-forked-thread-but-still-forked/466951.md?page=7)