# McCain Shovels the Bullshit **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [July 23, 2008, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498 "2008-07-23T16:36:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/41 "2008-07-23T22:11:26Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] Domestic drilling will probably lower gas prices in five years. That’s the sort of timetable you’d be looking at to set up an offshore operation from scratch. [/QUOTE] ISTR that the OPEC nations have acted, before, to price out competing nations’ production before, by increasing supply. And I do believe that one reason for the oil bust in Texas and Oklahoma was, again, because OPEC chose to price crude out of reach for domestic producers to compete with. I don’t mean to say that OPEC must or will react to this by increasing supply. But the nations in the cartel have acted together in the past to manipulate prices with the intent of stifling competition. It could have a faster effect. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/42 "2008-07-23T22:27:47Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Yes, except that oil contracts are futures. The price now is driven in large part by what the estimates are in years going forward. [/QUOTE] No, they are contracts for the price [thirty days into the future](http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=US@CL.1). Not years. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/43 "2008-07-23T22:30:47Z")
**FoieGrasIsEvil** Interesting read. I’m still not convinced that offshore drilling will help anyone other than the oil companies. ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/44 "2008-07-23T22:35:17Z")
[QUOTE=World Eater] Why would it? **First** , my understanding is that the crude pumped domestically will end up on the world market. A drop in the bucket so to speak. [/QUOTE] That’s something we could prevent with legislation. > [@](#): > > **Second** , does anyone actually believe that the oil companies will drop the price? If they can sell one gallon at $4, why wouldn’t they sell 10 billion more gallons at $4? No. Unless in the agreement, we specify price controls for oil destined for US motor fuel. If you want to sell crude for $150 a barrel to the chinese, what do we care? You’re not gonna pump from under our feet and charge $4 a gallon. > [@](#): > > **Third** , it’s estimated that these companies _already_ hold leases for a 100 million acres of domestic land. They’re just trying to snatch up more leases offshore before Bush gets out of office. Stop squatting and start drilling, then we’ll talk about new leases. Agreed on this point. Unless there isn’t enough oil on that land to dig for. > [@](#): > > I think it has more to do with Bernanke’s comments on the economy the day before Bush’s announcement. Could be, but what a coincidence. > [@](#): > > It’s all about opportunity cost. We waste time and resources drilling a few holes to sustain us another 5 to 10 years, or we can start working on a problem that’s inevitable. Why not “and” instead of “or” ? No one has been able to tell me why it wouldn’t be prudent to drill domestically AND pursue alternative energies at the same time. The market WILL sustain both directions because we “KNOW” that there’s a finite supply of oil. Don’t we? Now the argument can be made that once the oil starts flowing that the companies will just pump until they pockets explode with cash. This is where the Gov’t pops in and says "that’s it, you’re done, in article 79, section 159, subsection 236, paragraph 95 of addendum g to the oil lease sub agreement you signed back in 2008, it says we can reduce your impact by reducing and/or eliminating your ability to drill after you’ve made back you investment. ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/45 "2008-07-23T22:38:48Z")
[QUOTE=OtakuLoki] ISTR that the OPEC nations have acted, before, to price out competing nations’ production before, by increasing supply. And I do believe that one reason for the oil bust in Texas and Oklahoma was, again, because OPEC chose to price crude out of reach for domestic producers to compete with. I don’t mean to say that OPEC must or will react to this by increasing supply. But the nations in the cartel have acted together in the past to manipulate prices with the intent of stifling competition. It could have a faster effect. [/QUOTE] I agree with this. It will be a win-win for the consumer if the OPEC countries think that the US is drilling her own texas tea, they’ll trickle the good stuff into the market and drive prices down. The oil companies, shame of shames, will lose. Sad. (ok, not really). ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/46 "2008-07-23T22:40:24Z")
You all are a bunch of hijackers!!! Bah!! ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/47 "2008-07-23T22:45:25Z")
[QUOTE=buttonjockey308] I agree with this. It will be a win-win for the consumer if the OPEC countries think that the US is drilling her own texas tea, they’ll trickle the good stuff into the market and drive prices down. The oil companies, shame of shames, will lose. Sad. (ok, not really). [/QUOTE] Couldn’t OPEC reduce supply by the same amount and drive prices back up? I’d wager they’re trying to find that sweet spot. ---
**Author:** ![Harmonious\_Discord](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/74df32/32.png) [@Harmonious\_Discord](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harmonious_Discord)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/48 "2008-07-23T23:07:22Z")
I think this is one of the crappiest of his ads so far. Unfortunately I know a 90 year old house bound woman that is going to be voting for McCain because he was a prisoner of war. That sure is the reason to pick your candidate for president. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/49 "2008-07-23T23:16:09Z")
[QUOTE=buttonjockey308] That’s something [US oil on the world market] we could prevent with legislation. [/quote] Not without abrogating numerous trade agreements and treaties, you couldn’t. And in this case you just really, really don’t want to break at least one of the trade treaties in question. Specifically, NAFTA requires free trade of oil between member states. So what, you say? Look up the amount of US oil consumption that comes from Canada and Mexico, and then ask yourself if you want to break NAFTA and thereby grant the Canadian and Mexican governments the right to set export taxes on oil sold to the US. Anyways, even if you do break NAFTA, at the quantities we’re talking about the effect on both global and US oil prices would be the same as if you hadn’t - given that the US is the largest consumer of oil in the world, and that US production doesn’t come close to matching US consumption, and that other things being equal a barrel of oil will be sold to the customer with the lowest logistical costs (shipping, mostly), all that oil would end up going through US refineries anyways, and would impact the global market in exactly the same way whether it’s restricted from being sold outside the US or not. The total extra production available to the US just isn’t that much - it’s not insignificant, but the impact on oil prices is going to be marginal, not dramatic. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/50 "2008-07-23T23:45:08Z")
[QUOTE=buttonjockey308] That’s something we could prevent with legislation. [/quote] > [@](#): > > No. Unless in the agreement, we specify price controls for oil destined for US motor fuel. If you want to sell crude for $150 a barrel to the chinese, what do we care? You’re not gonna pump from under our feet and charge $4 a gallon. A few things here. Should we be worried about some sort of backlash from other countries or OPEC? I couldn’t imagine them being be happy with such an arrangement. Would we violate any trade agreements by doing so? I doubt “big oil” would allow any legislation remotely near price controls. I haven’t heard one mention of them as a condition for opening up drilling. > [@](#): > > Could be, but what a coincidence. Not much of a coincidence, what Bush did was symbolic. It’s highly unlikely that congress will lift the ban, which is what’s needed to get things rolling. There are other factors that seem more plausible. **1)** The Senate voted 94-0 to advance legislation to curb speculators. **2)** Oil Tycoon T Boone Pickens announces a dumping a billion into wind energy. > [@](#): > > Why not “and” instead of “or” ? No one has been able to tell me why it wouldn’t be prudent to drill domestically AND pursue alternative energies at the same time. The market WILL sustain both directions because we “KNOW” that there’s a finite supply of oil. Don’t we? _Can we_ pursue both? Seems like there’s only so many tax breaks and subsidies we can provide to companies. By discouraging drilling, we’ll also hopefully expedite a transition to alternate energies. > [@](#): > > Now the argument can be made that once the oil starts flowing that the companies will just pump until they pockets explode with cash. This is where the Gov’t pops in and says "that’s it, you’re done, in article 79, section 159, subsection 236, paragraph 95 of addendum g to the oil lease sub agreement you signed back in 2008, it says we can reduce your impact by reducing and/or eliminating your ability to drill after you’ve made back you investment. That would be nice, but I don’t see that happening. Call me a pessimist. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/51 "2008-07-24T00:25:36Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] No, they are contracts for the price [thirty days into the future](http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=US@CL.1). Not years. [/QUOTE] Do you believe you can’t do calendar spread options with oil? _sigh_ Do much work in futures, do you? I’m going out on a limb here and guessing not. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/52 "2008-07-24T02:04:46Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Do you believe you can’t do calendar spread options with oil? _sigh_ Do much work in futures, do you? I’m going out on a limb here and guessing not. [/QUOTE] Aren’t the strike prices the same though? Doesn’t that simply extend the time frame, but not drive up price? /preparing for evisceration ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/53 "2008-07-24T02:11:20Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Do you believe you can’t do calendar spread options with oil? [/QUOTE] Is that what you immediately think of when some one quotes the current price of oil? I am not interested in your obfuscation, **Bricker**. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/54 "2008-07-24T03:23:11Z")
But people…John McCain has assured us that he has talked to oil executives, who promise that oil prices will go down as soon as they can stick an oil well into every pristine coastline in the country. That’s good enough for me. After all, what incentive do oil executives have to lie? ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/55 "2008-07-24T04:18:54Z")
[QUOTE=Frostillicus] But people…John McCain has assured us that he has talked to oil executives, who promise that oil prices will go down as soon as they can stick an oil well into every pristine coastline in the country. That’s good enough for me. After all, what incentive do oil executives have to lie? [/QUOTE] I prefer to think of this as a distasteful yet necessary option to ease the transition into alternative transportation. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/56 "2008-07-24T13:35:57Z")
[hijack] Thanks to [blogger **along** at DailyKos](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/24/15946/8509/231/556070) who’s uncovered this delicious bit of unintended humor: > [@](#): > > McCain’s Nautical Lapel Pin ($200!), features three nautical signaling flags. Signaling flags depict the letters of the alphabet, but each one also carries a specific meaning. For example, the Alpha flag is a half-white, half-blue pennant that means Diver Down Keep Clear. > > [snip] > > ``` > **Juliet > > ``` > > Sierra > Mike\*\* > > –or JSM, his initials. OK fine. Kind of cute, in a San Diego, grosgrain belt, wine spritzer kind of way. > > But what else do these flags mean? What do they signal to your fellow seafarer as he glides past you at the helm of his own ship? Well it turns out these pennants can also be read as so: > > [snip] > > \*\*On fire, have dangerous cargo, keep clear > > Engines going astern > > My vessel is stopped, making no way\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/57 "2008-07-24T13:53:37Z")
All I know is that somebody is drinking my milkshake. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/58 "2008-07-24T14:37:29Z")
[QUOTE=Zebra] All I know is that somebody is drinking my milkshake. [/QUOTE] Someone else is trying to drill mine. ---
**Author:** ![Cartooniverse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cartooniverse/32/3084_2.png) [@Cartooniverse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cartooniverse)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2008, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/59 "2008-07-25T00:54:56Z")
[QUOTE=tdn] Gas prices were $1 in 2000? I must seriously be misremembering things, because I remember paying well over a dollar back in the early 90s. [/QUOTE] Agreed. [The Summer 2000 gasoline update data](http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/special/summogas.html). Cartooniverse ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2008, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498/60 "2008-07-25T01:18:22Z")
[Better cite](http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_history.html) If you want to be pedantic, prices for regular were around $1.50 for most of 2000, and no less than about $1.25 (and that was in January). However, the price was _under_ $1.00 as recently as March 1999, and was at most $1.25 from 1991 through the end of 1999. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mccain-shovels-the-bullshit/457498.md?page=2)