# Me winning the lottery. **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 24, 2013, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212 "2013-01-24T11:50:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![chowching](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f14d63/32.png) [@chowching](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowching)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/41 "2013-01-24T22:44:00Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > Just to extend the OPs logic here: > > Fair 6-sided die: > > You either roll a 1 or not. Prob(Roll 1) = 50% > You either roll a 2 or not. Prob(Roll 2) = 50% > You either roll a 3 or not. Prob(Roll 3) = 50% > You either roll a 4 or not. Prob(Roll 4) = 50% > You either roll a 5 or not. Prob(Roll 5) = 50% > You either roll a 6 or not. Prob(Roll 6) = 50% > > So, the probability of rolling any number at all on a single die is 300%. I like them odds. These are independent of each other. You either roll a 1 or not. If you land a 2, then it is on the not part. If you land a 3, then it is on the not part. ---
**Author:** ![Eggerhaus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@Eggerhaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eggerhaus)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/42 "2013-01-24T22:46:44Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > There is only one certainty here and someone has to state it: “You can’t win if you don’t play!”. > > duh dumdum, cymbal crash. 😃 Yup. The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math. ---
**Author:** ![chowching](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f14d63/32.png) [@chowching](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowching)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/43 "2013-01-24T22:50:35Z")
> [@Keeve](#): > > **chowching** , if you still don’t understand what we’re trying to explain, then please try to answer my request from before: Can you describe any sort of thing where _according to you_ the chance would be something other than 50-50? What sort of event would have a 1-in-3 chance of happening? I can’t think of anything that will give 1/3 chance of happening. That would be like dividing by zero. ---
**Author:** ![chowching](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f14d63/32.png) [@chowching](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowching)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/44 "2013-01-24T23:05:31Z")
[QUOTE=Blaster Master;15933400 If you’re still seeing the I win vs. I lose, we can try to intuitively understand it with unequal probabilities. Let’s go shoot some hoops. First, take some shots from the foul line. Do you expect to make 50% of those shots? I suppose it depends on how good you are, you might make 50%, you might also make 70% or 30%. But let’s say you expect to make 50% there, now step back to the 3-point line. It’s a harder shot, do you expect to make the same percentage? They’re both I make vs. I miss, but it should also intuitively follow that the latter will be lower than the former because it’s a harder shot. That is, if you succeed at the exact same rate, then it doesn’t really make sense to say it’s a harder shot. Still having trouble? Try half-court shots or even full-court shots. Even the best shooters in the NBA won’t make those shots with anything approaching 50% accuracy. At some point you’re going to be far enough back that you’re missing virtually all of them.[/QUOTE] When you try a shot, it will always be either you will make it or not. Although by intuition, you can say that it is more likely you will not make it as you move farther. ---
**Author:** ![Fubaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c2a13f/32.png) [@Fubaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fubaya)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/45 "2013-01-24T23:50:34Z")
I think the easiest way out of the problem is, as others have said, to remember that there are more than two possibilities. It’s not just win or lose, it’s get the one winning ticket or one of the many losing tickets. That’s what odds are. Not whether you win or lose but what is the likelihood that you will win vs the likelihood that you will lose. To get the chances, you have to actually calculate something. The OPs idea is more like a statement about how many outcomes there will be, not a calculation of the chances to arrive at those outcomes. ---
**Author:** ![rsat3acr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a3d4f5/32.png) [@rsat3acr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rsat3acr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/46 "2013-01-24T23:53:31Z")
> [@Eggerhaus](#): > > Yup. The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math. I’m good at math and I consider it cheep entertainment. I can daydream for 3 or 4 days about what I’d so with the money for only a dollar. Of course more importantly I can afford to throw a dollar away twice a week. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/47 "2013-01-25T00:47:04Z")
How about this: the outcomes are not “I’ll either win or lose.” It’s “I’ll win with 1-2-3-4-5” or “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-6,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-7,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-8…” etc. ---
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/48 "2013-01-25T00:56:53Z")
> [@chowching](#): > > I can’t think of anything that will give 1/3 chance of happening. That would be like dividing by zero. I have no dog in this fight, nor any issue with the OP, but I think this might be my new sig line. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/49 "2013-01-25T01:13:26Z")
> [@chowching](#): > > These are independent of each other. > You either roll a 1 or not. If you land a 2, then it is on the not part. If you land a 3, then it is on the not part. How would you fill in this table? Prob(Roll 1) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ Prob(Roll 2) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ Prob(Roll 3) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ Prob(Roll 4) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ Prob(Roll 5) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ Prob(Roll 6) = \_\_\_\_\_\_ ---
**Author:** ![Lanzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/74df32/32.png) [@Lanzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lanzy)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/50 "2013-01-25T01:48:08Z")
Having a bit of a leg pull here? You either are or you are not. ---
**Author:** ![R3d\_Anonymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aeb1de/32.png) [@R3d\_Anonymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R3d_Anonymous)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/51 "2013-01-25T01:51:43Z")
I don’t think it’s GQ nor IMHO. It’s MPSIMS. Seriously, this is so mundane and pointless. However, I’m just a lousy guest. The moderators are the real experts. So… yeah. ---
**Author:** ![chowching](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f14d63/32.png) [@chowching](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowching)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/52 "2013-01-25T02:04:06Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > How about this: the outcomes are not “I’ll either win or lose.” It’s “I’ll win with 1-2-3-4-5” or “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-6,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-7,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-8…” etc. “I’ll win with 1-2-3-4-5” or “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-6,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-7,” “I’ll lose with 1-2-3-4-8…” etc will of course fall under I"ll lose. ---
**Author:** ![shijinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@shijinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shijinn)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/53 "2013-01-25T02:04:50Z")
> [@chowching](#): > > But how can we be so sure that the two outcomes will be equally probable? How can we be so sure that landing a head is equally probable with landing a tail? The characters on the tails side is different from the one in the heads. That might give one side a slight advantage over the other. Even if both sides are mirror image of each other, I will be dismissing some small things if I am to say that they are equally probable to happen. yet you were perfectly willing to throw out important information to arrive at your black and white view. if your OP is genuine; you should learn fractions first, then percentages, then a whole lot of stuff before you touch probabilities. and please don’t gamble. ---
**Author:** ![SCAdian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scadian/32/3292_2.png) [@SCAdian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SCAdian)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/54 "2013-01-25T02:22:33Z")
> [@Colophon](#): > > Actually if he were to be struck by a meteor today, I would think that would make it much less likely he would be struck by one tomorrow. You mean meteors don’t strike twice in the same place? ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/55 "2013-01-25T02:39:49Z")
> [@chowching](#): > > Suppose I buy a ticket for the lottery. Why would I be wrong to assume that I have a 50% chance of winning? The result as I think of it is either I will win or I won’t. So that is just 50-50. I think you are confusing two different 50-50s here. You are right to assume that 50% _of the possible outcomes_ are “I win” and 50% are “I lose” as those are the only two possible outcomes. That is completely unrelated to the odds _of any one of those outcomes actually occurring_, which is patently not 50%. More generally: the number of events being considered is utterly unrelated to the probability of each of those events occurring, and there’s no reason why those two numbers ought to be connected. > [@](#): > > Why would I be wrong to assume that I have a 50% chance of winning? The simpler answer is “because you keep buying tickets and never win”. The longer your losing streak goes on, the plainer it is that your assumption is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Keeve](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@Keeve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Keeve)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/56 "2013-01-25T03:39:43Z")
I had asked: > [@Keeve](#): > > **chowching** , if you still don’t understand what we’re trying to explain, then please try to answer my request from before: Can you describe any sort of thing where _according to you_ the chance would be something other than 50-50? What sort of event would have a 1-in-3 chance of happening? and the response was: > [@chowching](#): > > I can’t think of anything that will give 1/3 chance of happening. That would be like dividing by zero. I think this response conclusively demonstrates that **chowching** ’s understanding of these concepts is fundamentally different from the rest of us. **chowching** seems to be using terms like “chance”, “odds”, and “50-50”, to simply ilustrate the “either/or” aspect of the situation: either the lottery ticket wins, or it loses. And from that perspective, it is correct. But the rest of us are using these terms with the specific purpose of clarifying how likely it is for the event to happen. It goes much further than “either/or”. Some things are very likely, some are extremely likely, and some are somewhat unlikely. And if enough details are known, we’re able to put a number on it. For example, suppose I’m playing ordinary 5-card poker, and I am dealt 5 random cards. What are the odds that I’ll be dealt two pair? **chowching** would say that the odds are 50-50, because I’ll either be dealt the two air, or I won’t, and that the same calculation applies to being dealt three of a kind - either I’ll get them or I won’t. But [Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability) says that the odds of being dealt two pair are about 20 to 1, while the odds of being dealt three of a kind are about 46 to 1. This is very useful information! It tells me that if I play poker for a very long time, I will probably be dealt two pair several times, and that I’ll be dealt three of a kind less than half as often. I can use this information for my betting strategy and for other purposes. **chowching** , this is why we have these probabilities to begin with. No one cares if something might or might not happen, because that’s true about everything. What we care about is: How likely is it? And if you can actually put a number on it, then you’re really winning. ---
**Author:** ![Folly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folly/32/3219_2.png) [@Folly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folly)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/57 "2013-01-25T04:46:45Z")
Everyone have a good night. There is after all only a 50% chance that the sun will rise tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/58 "2013-01-25T05:20:23Z")
> [@chowching](#): > > These are independent of each other. > You either roll a 1 or not. If you land a 2, then it is on the not part. If you land a 3, then it is on the not part. Nice try, but let’s try it a different way. Since fair 6-sided dice exist in the real world, we don’t have to play weird word games. We can try it out in real life. You either roll a 1 or not, therefore, Prob(Roll 1) = 50% Prob(Roll 2 through 6) = 50% So, let’s make a bet. You will roll a single fair 6-sided die 1000 times. Every time it comes up 1, I give you $1. Every time it is “not 1”, you give me $1. Since the probability is 50/50, we should come out close to even at the end of the 1000 rolls. I’ll even be nice and say that I’ll admit you’re right if it’s within 45% and 55% via experiment and I’ll start playing the lottery every day. And ff I’m right, this is much more fair to you than playing the lottery. Care to take me up on the bet? ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/59 "2013-01-25T05:34:45Z")
Alt proposal. We’ll make it more like a lottery. You get to pick a number between 1 and 6. Then roll the die. Either you guessed correctly or you didn’t. If you guessed correctly, I give you $1. If you didn’t guess correctly, you give me $1. We do this 1000 times. If it’s 50/50, we should be close to break even. If I’m right, I’ll net more than $600. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212/60 "2013-01-25T09:23:59Z")
I’m scared of a terrorist with bomb on my flight. _I_ bring a bomb on my flight, thus doubling the odds of not finding a terrorist with one. I fly safer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/me-winning-the-lottery/648212.md?page=4)