# Meanwhile in Alberta - is a once-in-a-lifetime electoral shift in the offing? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 7, 2012, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086 "2012-04-07T15:07:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Baffle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dec6dc/32.png) [@Baffle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baffle)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/141 "2012-04-24T04:55:24Z")
The race is widening against the Wildrose; they’re only being called for 17 seats now. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/142 "2012-04-24T04:56:17Z")
Raj Sherman’s riding is also very close - 47 votes at the last count. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/143 "2012-04-24T05:00:11Z")
CBC is signing off its coverage - the one thing I missed was that as far as I can recall, they never showed a map of the province with the ridings showing who won where. ---
**Author:** ![Nanoda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ce73a5/32.png) [@Nanoda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nanoda)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/144 "2012-04-24T05:04:23Z")
I’d be interested to see the voter turnout for this year. In 2008 it was [40.6%](http://www.elections.ab.ca/public%20website/927.htm), which is ridiculous compared [countrywide](http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/data-centre/alberta-election-voter-turnout/index.html). ---
**Author:** ![Baffle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dec6dc/32.png) [@Baffle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baffle)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/145 "2012-04-24T05:10:59Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > CBC is signing off its coverage - the one thing I missed was that as far as I can recall, they never showed a map of the province with the ridings showing who won where. I’ve been pulling that off of here: [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/live-results-alberta-election-2012/article2405211/](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/live-results-alberta-election-2012/article2405211/) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/146 "2012-04-24T05:15:07Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > and the [polls suggest that the race is tightening](http://m.ctv.ca/topstories/20120420/alberta-election-race-narrows-120420.html). > > Why? possibly as a result of nasty comments from one Wildrose candidate that he has an [advantage with the voters because he’s white](http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/17/albertavotes2012-wildrose-leech-advantage-white.html)? > > maybe because of another Wildrose candidate saying that [homosexuals are going to burn in hell, along with the public schools that try to be accepting of gay and lesbian students](http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/17/albertavotes2012-wildrose-leech-advantage-white.html)? I guess being white wasn’t so good for Ron Leech: [Controversial Wildrose candidate Leech falls short against PC rising star Bhullar in Calgary-Greenway](http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Controversial+Wildrose+candidate+Leech+falls+short+against+rising+star+Bhullar+Calgary+Greenway/6505985/story.html#ixzz1svoP5p9j) And commenting on hellfire didn’t help Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsberger: [Edmonton Election Results](http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/edmonton+election+results/6442625377/story.html). ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/147 "2012-04-24T05:36:36Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I guess being white wasn’t so good for Ron Leech: [Controversial Wildrose candidate Leech falls short against PC rising star Bhullar in Calgary-Greenway](http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Controversial+Wildrose+candidate+Leech+falls+short+against+rising+star+Bhullar+Calgary+Greenway/6505985/story.html#ixzz1svoP5p9j) > > And commenting on hellfire didn’t help Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsberger: [Edmonton Election Results](http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/edmonton+election+results/6442625377/story.html). I’d suggest that both of those incidents contributed to Wildrose’s defeat. The former arose recently, and given the nature of his remarks (“As a Caucasian, I’m qualified to speak for all in a way that minorities aren’t,” paraphrased), was easy to take in a way that he did not intend. Still, he should have thought first, and carefully spoke. The latter was, IMHO, just plain frightening. Hunsberger’s blog remarks were reported more and more frequently in the last few days. I am sure that they influenced people who did not feel that religious beliefs, and threats of damnation, belong in the Legislature. I have no doubt that Wildrose will convene some sort of meeting, at which Ms. Smith will rip a strip off the two candidates above. Probably some others too. I understand that she was trying to keep a lid on her candidates, and she did a good job that way. But I would suggest to her that she tell all her candidates, potential candidates, and assorted hangers-on, to get rid of all Facebook, Twitter, etc. religious and otherwise redneck remarks about hot-button issues _right now_, so they don’t come back to haunt the Wildrose at the next election. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_the\_Immortal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@Max\_the\_Immortal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_the_Immortal)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/148 "2012-04-24T06:00:32Z")
So much for living in a swing riding. Last time around in Edmonton-Rutherford, the PCs’ Fred Horne took the riding from Liberal Rick Miller by 58 votes. This time, Horne got nearly double the votes Miller did (a margin about 48 times as wide as last time). ---
**Author:** ![Kenm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bc79bd/32.png) [@Kenm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kenm)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/149 "2012-04-24T06:01:28Z")
Never in my life would I have believed that someday I’d have hoped for a Tory election win. The first thing Redford should do is get rid of the licence plates. “Wild Rose Country” on millions of plates is like having “Workers of the world unite” on Manitoba’s. ---
**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/150 "2012-04-24T13:34:00Z")
> [@Nanoda](#): > > I’d be interested to see the voter turnout for this year. In 2008 it was [40.6%](http://www.elections.ab.ca/public%20website/927.htm), which is ridiculous compared [countrywide](http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/data-centre/alberta-election-voter-turnout/index.html). I’m curious about that, too - I believe that there must have been a larger turnout this time, but I don’t know what it was. ---
**Author:** ![EmAnJ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@EmAnJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EmAnJ)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/151 "2012-04-24T14:08:54Z")
I heard on the radio this morning that turnout was 50%. ---
**Author:** ![Implicit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Implicit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Implicit)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/152 "2012-04-24T15:18:05Z")
> [@Max\_the\_Immortal](#): > > So much for living in a swing riding. Last time around in Edmonton-Rutherford, the PCs’ Fred Horne took the riding from Liberal Rick Miller by 58 votes. This time, Horne got nearly double the votes Miller did (a margin about 48 times as wide as last time). If that’s not related to incumbency or personalities, then it might be a good example of what happened in this election. There was speculation that NDP and Liberal voters would strategically vote PC to keep the Wild Rose out. Plus the Redford platform is more appealing to those centrist voters than PC platforms of the past. If voter turnout is higher than normal you could also be seeing PC support from people who never bothered to vote when the PC’s were steamrolling in past elections. My riding was supposed to be close and go for Wild Rose according to the polls. I did not vote PC in the last election, but choose to do the strategic vote thing this time. ---
**Author:** ![Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dread_pirate_jimbo/32/3897_2.png) [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dread_Pirate_Jimbo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/153 "2012-04-24T16:25:07Z")
> [@Cat\_Whisperer](#): > > Jim’s been calling a PC majority since the election was called; I honestly thought it would be a PC minority. I guess he knows his province. 🙂 Albertans tend to be loathe to change anything. Change is bad, even when what we currently have is equally bad. I had an awful feeling that the masses would fall right back in line with the Conservatives when they had to fill out their ballots. Sometimes I wish I wasn’t right all the time… > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > [Alberta Tory Supporters] Forty more years! Forty more years! [/Alberta Tory Supporters] QFT ---
**Author:** ![Max\_the\_Immortal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@Max\_the\_Immortal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_the_Immortal)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/154 "2012-04-24T17:24:33Z")
> [@Implicit](#): > > If that’s not related to incumbency or personalities, then it might be a good example of what happened in this election. There was speculation that NDP and Liberal voters would strategically vote PC to keep the Wild Rose out. Plus the Redford platform is more appealing to those centrist voters than PC platforms of the past. If voter turnout is higher than normal you could also be seeing PC support from people who never bothered to vote when the PC’s were steamrolling in past elections. > > My riding was supposed to be close and go for Wild Rose according to the polls. I did not vote PC in the last election, but choose to do the strategic vote thing this time. Well, to be fair, Fred Horne is/was the health minister, and seems fairly well-liked. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/155 "2012-04-24T17:35:12Z")
> [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](#): > > Albertans tend to be loathe to change anything. Change is bad, even when what we currently have is equally bad. > > I had an awful feeling that the masses would fall right back in line with the Conservatives when they had to fill out their ballots. Sometimes I wish I wasn’t right all the time… I’ve seen a compelling case made that the Wildrose really represented the old guard of Alberta, and it’s Redford that was actual change. Yes, the name on the door is the same, but what’s behind it is different. I mean, Wildrose supporters themselves were making the case that the Torys had moved to the left. ---
**Author:** ![Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dread_pirate_jimbo/32/3897_2.png) [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dread_Pirate_Jimbo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/156 "2012-04-24T17:47:59Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > I’ve seen a compelling case made that the Wildrose really represented the old guard of Alberta, and it’s Redford that was actual change. Yes, the name on the door is the same, but what’s behind it is different. I mean, Wildrose supporters themselves were making the case that the Torys had moved to the left. While I don’t dispute that the Wildrose Party is well right of the Conservatives, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Tories have shifted to the left. To me, however, a shift in policy by the Conservatives – real or perceived – still does nothing to address the fact that this is still the party that wrecked health care and education in this province and who still don’t have an effective plan to fix the damage. The voters choosing to not hold the incumbents accountable for their incompetence is disappointing to me. Not surprising, but disappointing. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/157 "2012-04-24T18:32:21Z")
Don’t think of it as a victory for the right, think of it as a defeat for the far right. For myself, my Liberal incumbent gets to keep his job, and I’m fine with that. ---
**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/158 "2012-04-24T18:43:55Z")
> [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](#): > > While I don’t dispute that the Wildrose Party is well right of the Conservatives, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Tories have shifted to the left. To me, however, a shift in policy by the Conservatives – real or perceived – still does nothing to address the fact that this is still the party that wrecked health care and education in this province and who still don’t have an effective plan to fix the damage. The voters choosing to not hold the incumbents accountable for their incompetence is disappointing to me. Not surprising, but disappointing. There are those who argue that the Wildrose is now what the PCs were decades ago (back in their education and healthcare wrecking days). The fact that Albertans keep voting them in may mean that the party and Albertans are moving away from the Far Right (which wouldn’t surprise me too much - we have had massive influxes of British Columbians, Ontarians, and Saskatchehoovians). ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2012, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/159 "2012-04-25T00:03:43Z")
The pollsters’ post-mortem has begun. This article suggests that there was a late swing in voter opinion on the weekend that one poll did in fact pick up: [Final Alberta Poll Hinted at Decisive Swing from Wildrose to PC](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/final-alberta-poll-hinted-at-decisive-swing-from-wildrose-to-pc/article2412359/): > [@](#): > > However, a potential smoking gun that points to a last-minute swing in Alberta’s voting intentions is a poll conducted by Forum Research on Apr. 22, the day before the vote was held. Forum had been in the field on Apr. 21, along with another polling firm, and both of these surveys had shown the same Wildrose lead that other firms identified through the course of the final week. The Apr. 22 Forum poll, however, showed a swing of seven points between the PCs and Wildrose, with the other parties holding relatively steady. > > In short, the gap was 41 to 32 per cent for Wildrose on Saturday, 38 to 36 per cent on Sunday, and finally 44 to 34 per cent on Monday – with the Tories on top. The likelihood the pollsters were generally on the mark in the week before the vote and that Forum captured a last-minute swing (and, as they were the only firm in the field on that last day, they were the only one to be able to record it) seems somewhat high. So the pollsters didn’t get it wrong, just those fickle Alberta voters couldn’t make up their minds until the last minute, by this narrative. However, another article suggests something more fundamentally wrong with the pollsters: [‘Entire environment shifted’: Pollsters seek answers following Alberta election](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/entire-environment-shifted-pollsters-seek-answers-in-alberta/article2412816/): > [@](#): > > **Albertans: More complicated than you think** > > Still, the PCs didn’t just come from behind to win narrowly but by a nine-point margin. > > “People don’t shift that dramatically on the last day,” said Brian Singh, president of ZINC Research, and a strategist for Naheed Nenshi’s mayoralty campaign in Calgary. > > “The pollsters were using some techniques that didn’t provide the complexity and insight that they need to understand where the rhythm of the campaign was exactly going.” > > … > > **Those shy Albertans** > > Another factor was the likelihood that some poll respondents weren’t forthright. > > Ms. Redford’s party was initially rattled by the no-meet-committee scandal, where MLAs got paid for being on a legislature panel that hasn’t sat since 2008. > > Some supporters might have decided to keep their views to themselves when contacted by pollsters, Mr. Singh. > > “Early in the campaign, it was socially undesirable to support the PCs . . . so people were telling us they intended to vote Wildrose, that they intended to vote for change and then at the last minute voting intentions changed very quickly,” Mr. Coletto said. > > “So there may be some of that shy PC voter out there who doesn’t want to admit it.” Overall, I think the CBC Newsworld anchor had the best line, speaking last night to one of the pollsters: “So, you guys always say your polls are accurate, 19 times out of 20. This was the 20th time, right?” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086/160 "2012-04-25T00:17:04Z")
Alberta, let your hair hang down Alberta, let your hair hang down I’ll give you more gold Than your apron can hold If you’ll only let your hair hang down Alberta, don’t you treat me unkind Alberta, don’t you treat me so unkind You keep me so worried You keep me bothered all the time Alberta, don’t you treat me unkind [repeat first verse] Apropos of nothing, just something I remember from an old Chad Mitchell Trio album. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meanwhile-in-alberta-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-electoral-shift-in-the-offing/618086.md?page=9)