You are correct I should have looked up the actual facts, and you clearly got yours from very reliable sources. However, I am having a problem with you figures.
Here’s a very rough estimate:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medscape
Of the 16,318 eligible colonoscopies (96% performed by board-certified gastroenterologists), the incidence of serious complications was 5/1000 procedures (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.0-6.2). The 82 cases of serious complications that occurred involved 15 perforations, 6 cases of postpolypectomy syndrome, 53 cases of bleeding requiring hospitalization (15 requiring surgery or transfusion), 38 cases of bleeding requiring inpatient observation, 6 cases of diverticulitis, and 2 unusual complications (1 snare caught in a large polyp requiring surgery and 1 case of diabetic ketoacidosis associated with the colon preparation). There were 10 deaths (0.6/1000) within 30 days of the procedure, but only 1 of these was directly related to colonoscopy (a patient with congestive heart failure and sepsis after a transfusion for postpolypectomy-related bleeding).
Meanwhile, here’s the latest study on colonoscopy benefits from the NEJM:
Quote:
Originally Posted by NEJM
Among 2602 patients who had adenomas removed during participation in the study, after a median of 15.8 years, 1246 patients had died from any cause and 12 had died from colorectal cancer. Given an estimated 25.4 expected deaths from colorectal cancer in the general population, the standardized incidence-based mortality ratio was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.80) with colonoscopic polypectomy, suggesting a 53% reduction in mortality. Mortality from colorectal cancer was similar among patients with adenomas and those with nonadenomatous polyps during the first 10 years after polypectomy (relative risk, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.1 to 10.6).
The missing information here is the percentage of colonoscopies which find polyps. The NYTimes article about the NEJM study implies it’s about 20 percent, but I’d welcome corrections on that.
Take 1 million people in the right age range and give them colonoscopies. Let’s say 1/16,000 die as a result of the procedure, so you cause 62.5 deaths. Meanwhile, you remove polyps from 20% of the patients. The NEJM study says that the colorectal cancer mortality rate over their follow-up period was about 0.5% in the treated group vs. 1% in the general population. Of the 200,000 patients who had polyps removed, 1000 die of colorectal cancer, compared to 2000 in the general population, so you have saved 1000 - 62.5 = 937.5 lives.
First, according to the figures quoted the death rate is 0.3/1000 in the thirty days following colonoscopy. Some of these where deaths by other causes such as heart attack, some doubtless do to the colonoscopy. Anyway this comes to 300 deaths per million. Now for the complications, the rate is about 67/million or 67,000. This is a huge number of people getting very very sick. If I am “lucky” and have cancer I have made a good choice. If no adenomatous polyps are found I just made an incredibly risky decision.
The huge mistake in your argument is that you need to realize that the death rate and morbidity rate is based on the 1,000,000 examined, not only those in whom polyps were found.