# Meteor to Hit Earth in 2029? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [December 23, 2009, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256 "2009-12-23T00:22:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2009, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/21 "2009-12-31T14:36:54Z")
[Russia to Plan Deflection of Asteroid From Earth](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/31/world/europe/31asteroid.html?_r=1&hpw) > [@](#): > > MOSCOW — Russia’s top space researchers will hold a closed-door meeting to plan a mission to deflect 99942 Apophis, an asteroid that will fly close to Earth two decades from now, said Anatoly N. Perminov, the head of Russia’s space agency, during an interview on Russian radio on Wednesday. > … > Mr. Perminov said the plan he envisioned would involve “no nuclear explosions; everything will be based on the laws of physics.” Once a mission has been developed, Russia will invite NASA, the China Space Agency and the European Space Agency to participate, he said. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2009, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/22 "2009-12-31T17:33:45Z")
From that article: > [@](#): > > “I don’t remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032,” he said, adding, “We’re talking about people’s lives here. It’s better to spend several million dollars and create this system, which would not allow a collision to happen, than wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people.” He doesn’t remember exactly? But it seems to him? Sounds like a real authority. ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2009, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/23 "2009-12-31T20:21:59Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > I’ll be 82. Not a bad way to go. I’ll only be 96 in 2036 and I’m not ready to go. I may not go at all; even if the rest of you do. ---
**Author:** ![ZenBeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/3ab097/32.png) [@ZenBeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZenBeam)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2009, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/24 "2009-12-31T22:29:50Z")
> [@Anatoly N. Perminov](#): > > everything will be based on the laws of physics. I’m glad this was clarified right off the bat. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/25 "2010-01-01T15:35:42Z")
> [@fortytwo](#): > > Perhaps a Yellowstone eruption will oblige? Apparently it’s about due. That’s not really accurate. > [@](#): > > But at this hot spot’s current position under Yellowstone there have been three massive eruptions: 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 640,000 years ago. While those eruptions have been spaced roughly 800,000 and 660,000 years apart, three events are not enough statistically to declare this an eruption pattern, explains Smith. [http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/supervolcano/under/under\_02.html](http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/supervolcano/under/under_02.html) Even if you want to assume that there is an eruption pattern, the “schedule” has the eruption somewhere between 20,000 and 160,000 years away. I think we can let our guard down. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/26 "2010-01-01T15:39:34Z")
If we know in 2029 that it will hit us seven years hence, couldn’t we hit it with some kind of Mega-ICBM? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/27 "2010-01-01T15:51:29Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > If we know in 2029 that it will hit us seven years hence, couldn’t we hit it with some kind of Mega-ICBM? Now let’s think this through: What is likely to happen to a 270 mile-across asteroid if you hit it with the largest nuclear weapon in our arsenal? It is not going to be vaporized, it likely won’t even be broken into pieces small enough to reduce the danger. Getting hit by a 10-mile across fragment is still an extinction level event. ---
**Author:** ![Civil\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d78d45/32.png) [@Civil\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Civil_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/28 "2010-01-01T16:09:32Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Now let’s think this through: What is likely to happen to a 270 mile-across asteroid if you hit it with the largest nuclear weapon in our arsenal? It is not going to be vaporized, it likely won’t even be broken into pieces small enough to reduce the danger. Getting hit by a 10-mile across fragment is still an extinction level event. …And just to clarify: the Wikipedia article says that 99942 Apophis is 350 meters across, or 1,100 feet in diameter. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/29 "2010-01-01T18:04:07Z")
You don’t have to blow them up, just change their direction slightly. That can be done with explosives or heating one side. ---
**Author:** ![qazwart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/5fc32e/32.png) [@qazwart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/qazwart)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/30 "2010-01-01T19:32:32Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > [Russia to Plan Deflection of Asteroid From Earth](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/31/world/europe/31asteroid.html?_r=1&hpw) > > MOSCOW — Russia’s top space researchers will hold a closed-door meeting to plan a mission to deflect 99942 Apophis, an asteroid that will fly close to Earth two decades from now, said Anatoly N. Perminov, the head of Russia’s space agency, during an interview on Russian radio on Wednesday. > … > Mr. Perminov said the plan he envisioned would involve “no nuclear explosions; everything will be based on the laws of physics.” Once a mission has been developed, Russia will invite NASA, the China Space Agency and the European Space Agency to participate, he said. Their plans call for launching a rocket ship with Putin in it. Putin will personally wrestle with the meteor and capture it. Thus saving Earth and giving the grateful public another glimpse of his wonderful abs. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2010, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/31 "2010-01-01T19:59:54Z")
> [@qazwart](#): > > and giving the grateful public another glimpse of his wonderful abs. Well, they _are_ pretty good abs! ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2010, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256/32 "2010-01-02T05:06:13Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > You don’t have to blow them up, just change their direction slightly. That can be done with explosives or heating one side. Probably the easiest way to change an asteroid’s orbit is to modify its albedo (i.e. paint it white or black) and then let the [Yarkovsky Effect](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarkovsky_effect) have its way. You’d have to be able to do this several years in advance in order for the change to be large enough to be meaningful. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/meteor-to-hit-earth-in-2029/522256.md?page=1)