Meteorites should be required to use a Porta-John just like everyone else. :mad:
Wouldn’t a meteor thru the dense atmosphere be glowing red and/or shedding sparks? Or was this just a slowly drifting one?
Apparently small meteors (or pieces of a meteor that is breaking up) can slow down enough to cool off- it’s called dark flight:
Edit: I’m still very skeptical
It doesn’t really make sense if it was in his parachute. His chute was open for a good 10 seconds before the rock goes whizzing by. It seems to be going to fast to just have been stuck there and then fallen.
The video doesn’t look like “real time” to me- and it has definitely been edited. The jumper wore two cameras; one facing forward and one facing back. The deployment was captured by the rear-facing camera while the rock was captured by the forward-facing camera.
Too late to edit- you can see that the canopy is not yet fully inflated just before the rock goes past. The two end cells of the canopy (the orange section on the right) are still partially deflated.
If he was a solo jumper, the rock was as big as a foot ball & rode down on top of his canopy & there were scorch marks, I bet the same people here would still say fake.
The Bad Astronomer weighs in:
Brian
Biiiig deal.
Now, if he had whizzed on it, as it went by, then…
I agree with almost everything Phil said, and I still come to different conclusion. Here’s why:
I have to ask myself which is more unlikely- that the jumper actually captured a near-miss by a meteoroid on video, or that it was a rock that was packed in with his parachute? I believe the first scenario is more unlikely, by several orders of magnitude. The “rock in the parachute” scenario is unlikely but certainly not impossible, and it fits all the known facts.
It’s very difficult to judge the size and speed of the rock from that video. Yes, I know it was analyzed by a meteor expert, but as Phil says "… Steiner Midtskogen at the Norwegian Meteor Network did a great analysis of the video (here’s an English translation), and shows the rock to be about 8 – 20 cm across, depending on how far it was (2.5 – 6.5 meters away), which he calculates based on an assumed rate of speed." Bolding mine
So I’m not convinced by Phil’s statement that the rock is moving too fast.
And now I’m off to the Trinity Site!
I wish I’d thought of that!
I still think it’s possible that someone threw the rock (rather than just dropped it, to give it some speed). Risk of error is often not a factor in pranks.
I should summarise what I thinking when I posted the OP:
[ul][li]Oh, here’s an interesting article![/li][li]Hm. That ‘meteoroid’ isn’t even smoking. :dubious:[/li][li]Oh, ‘dark flight’. I’ve never heard of that. But OK, it would eventually slow and cool.[/li][li]Never thought of a rock being in the pack. Someone is probably going to be very careful packing his 'chute, since his life depends upon it. Probably wasn’t in the pack.[/li][li]The footage was examined by an actual scientist, who said the object is a meteoroid.[/li][li]But the scientist is a geologist and not a forensic video expert. Or probably not. Can a geologist really tell, from this kind of video?[/li][li]Still, might be true. I think I’ll share it. [Post.][/li][li]Wait a second. This happened almost two years ago? Why is it just coming out now? :dubious:[/li][li]The Bad Astronomer says he thinks it’s real. That was unexpected. Maybe someone really did capture a meteoroid.[/ul][/li]
So when I posted the OP, I thought it might be real. The lack of smoke or other indication of heat was answered by this ‘dark flight’ phase, of which I hadn’t heard. I rejected the rock being in the pack, because I can’t imagine anyone could be that careless. A geologist determined the object was a meteoroid, but I questioned his qualifications for identifying it as such from a video. Better than mine, certainly. The year and a half plus delay is a red flag to me, but wouldn’t a hoaxer state the video was more recent?
The Bad Astronomer comes out on the side that says it’s genuine. I don’t like his reasoning that it’s probably not faked because faking it would be risky, or that it would be difficult to pull off. As I said, risk is often ignored to pull of a successful hoax. Also, as a sometime filmmaker, I have no problem with multiple takes. You just need time and money. He knows a helluva lot more about space rocks than I do, so his opinion has some weight.
The lingering questions are: How big? How far? How fast? Small vs. far away. A pebble can look like a boulder when it’s close to a lens. It will also look like it’s moving faster than it is. The lenses on the cameras cover a wide angle. This means that the size of the image of an object gets smaller very rapidly the farther away it is from the camera. We can get a rough idea of scale by looking at the video where the harness, part of the canopy, and the object are all in frame. I don’t have the expertise to judge the size myself, but Steiner Midtskogen’s estimate of 8-20 cm looks reasonable. When I watch, I lean toward the larger number; but it can be smaller and closer. The composite image on Bad Astronomy shows the object apparently on a trajectory slightly toward the camera. It also appears to show it falling at a constant speed, which is consistent with ‘dark flight’. If we know the focal length of the lens and can estimate the distance of the object from it, then speed can be calculated.
So where do I stand? I started out with ‘The skydiver and a scientist say it’s real.’ Then I thought that someone above Helstrup could have thrown the rock. Smarter people than I, have said the footage is not faked. I think that the images could easily have been faked without the use of digital manipulation. ‘Practical effects’, as it were. It might require several takes (several jumps and attempts) to get it right, but the result would look like exactly what it is: a rock falling past a skydiver.
Bumbershoot asks which is the more unlikely scenario: A meteoroid falling past a skydiver; or a pebble in the pack? To that I would add, ‘Or a well planned and executed stunt?’ We know meteoroids exist. We know that meteors fall through our atmosphere and that meteorites hit the surface of the planet. It is extremely unlikely that one would pass a skydiver in flight. But there is no reason to believe it wouldn’t. I am unaware of any cosmic collision-avoidance protocols that would ensure that a space rock and a camera-equipped human would not be in proximity to one another. The pebble in the pack scenario seems to be unlikely because people who fly, whether in an aircraft or under a canopy, tend to be very safety conscious. Missing a rock in the pack would be an egregious oversight. A stunt could be pulled off with enough rehearsal or with a ‘lucky take’. In the end, I must conclude that it’s either real or intentionally faked. I’m leaning toward its being real. Perhaps there is a skydiving Doper might attempt to recreate the footage by having a rock thrown by an out-of-frame accomplice? 
I would like to nitpick your post. Not that I disagree with it, I just can’t let some things slide.
[quote=“Johnny_L.A, post:31, topic:685345”]
I should summarise what I thinking when I posted the OP:
[ul][li]…[/li][li]Hm. That ‘meteoroid’ isn’t even smoking. :dubious:[/li][li]Oh, ‘dark flight’. I’ve never heard of that. But OK, it would eventually slow and cool.[/ul][/li][/quote]
So we learned (I did) that dark flight is possible. That doesn’t mean that every non-smoking, glowing object is a meteorite/meteroid. It just means that a space rock doesn’t have to glow to be a space rock.
Correction, from someone who knows how we all can be fooled: It was examined, according to the source, by an actual scientist, by his own admission… Was he really a scientist, or just one who plays one on TV?
Not in the Bad Astronomer comments I read. Phil Plaitsaid it could be real, and he saw nothing that prohibited it from being real, but he wouldn’t commit. His actual words:
That bothers me, too. Reminds me of many BigFoot hoaxes. A camper takes a pic of BigFoot, then decides it’s important years later as he’s looking over his snapshot collection. Doesn’t mean this video isn’t genuine, just suspicious.
See his actual words, above.
I seem to recall several different reports of dark flight chunks hitting houses, a car or three and that tons or hundred of pounds in total weight of itty bitty space wandering rocks strike the earth every day.
But since something that never happened before is unlikely to have actually happened and until it has happened 100 times in full scientific view and investigation, it can’t be real.
Once it is real, then the first time does not count because it could not have been real as proved by the scientist that heard about the first time.
In today’s world, everything can be faked so IMO, this is interesting but not worth getting all up tight about.
If football sized dark flight rocks become common and humanity has to move underground, then a) I would believe & b) find it most interesting.
Sky diving would be right out for me.
I think either the ‘dropped rock’ scenario or the ‘rock in the parachute’ scenario is possible (and both are far more likely than the ‘meteor whizzes by’ scenario). I was favoring the rock in the parachute mainly because it happened so soon after the parachute opened. If there was a rock packed in with the parachute I think the result would look very much like what we see in the video.
As previously mentioned, the dropped rock trick would be difficult to pull off (and a bit risky for the lower jumper)- in freefall anyway. A better and safer way to pull off the stunt would be after both jumpers are under open parachutes. Then the rock dropper could position himself over and in front of the target before releasing the rock.
And I haven’t been active in the sport for several years so I don’t think I’ll volunteer to go up and let someone throw rocks at me! Tennis balls, maybe.
I don’t know if it is a scam as much as probably mistaken identity. Could it have fallen out of the plane maybe?
The plane cleared the area after the skydivers left it.
The Bad Astronomer has updated his blog a couple of times and is now convinced it was just a small rock:
Sadly, this third post of his was based on an error and should have been retracted and his position gone back to the position of his second post. Instead he merely acknowledged his error with an update rather than a withdrawal.
(The meteor/meteorite stuff is ridiculous. We don’t call a large floating thing a “boatoid” when it’s out to sea, a “boat” when it’s in the harbor and a “boatite” when it’s tied up to the dock. Even the BA gave up being precise on the language for simplicity.)
I strongly believe it was falling too fast to come from the chute. The only other plausible “fake” method is a higher skydiver dropping it. But that would mean that there is another skydiver directly above someone just opening a chute and also dropping a rock. Ridiculously dangerous. Too dangerous for me and normal skydivers, maybe not too dangerous for extreme sports people.
In his update, Plait provided a link to this article by Steinar Midtskogen, who did the original detailed analysis of the skydiver’s video. Midtskogen explains why he and his colleagues at the Norwegian Meteor Network changed their minds. They, too, initially thought the rock was moving too fast to have come from the parachute. They are now 100% convinced that that’s what happened.
Or even off of the plane? Most skydivers jump out of smaller planes without retractable landing gear and take off from smaller airstrips or even dirt airstrips.
Could a clump of dirt or rock stuck on the landing gear happen to fall off when he jumped?