# Mexican drug war, long term

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [December 30, 2010, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791 "2010-12-30T03:56:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Nobody](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/94ad74/32.png) [@Nobody](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nobody)\
**Post date:** [December 30, 2010, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791/1 "2010-12-30T03:56:15Z")

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Mods, apologies if this is the wrong forum.

I’m not debating anything, but the answer to the question is probably debatable, so that’s why I’m placing it here.

If Mexican government continues its war on the drug cartels for a long time to come, which one of these out comes will most likely happen?

1. The government will eventually win.
2. The cartels will eventually win.
3. The fighting will go on indefinitely.
4. Some sort of truce will happen and Mexico will go back to leaving the cartels alone and looking the other way.
5. Other.

I really have no clue, but if I had to choose, I guess I’d chose number 4.

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**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\
**Post date:** [December 30, 2010, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791/2 "2010-12-30T04:00:31Z")

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1. Some drugs get legalized. That’s kinda #4, and kinda ‘other’.

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**Author:** ![Llama\_Llogophile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@Llama\_Llogophile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Llama_Llogophile)\
**Post date:** [December 30, 2010, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791/3 "2010-12-30T04:04:32Z")

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> [@Nobody](#):
>
> Mods, apologies if this is the wrong forum.
> 
> If Mexican government continues its war on the drug cartels for a long time to come, which one of these out comes will most likely happen?
> 
> 1. The government will eventually win.
> 2. The cartels will eventually win.
> 3. The fighting will go on indefinitely.
> 4. Some sort of truce will happen and Mexico will go back to leaving the cartels alone and looking the other way.
> 5. Other.

Well, the U.S. has had a war on drugs since the 80’s, and we’re on #3. The situation isn’t as violent as in Mexico, but I don’t see any end in sight.

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**Author:** ![Nobody](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/94ad74/32.png) [@Nobody](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nobody)\
**Post date:** [December 30, 2010, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mexican-drug-war-long-term/565791/4 "2010-12-30T05:00:19Z")

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But how long will the civilian population put up with civilian deaths before they vote in someone who will promise to end the war?

Just going by what I hear occasionally on the news, despite having brought in the military because police officers are either taking bribes or getting executed, the Mexican government doesn’t seem to be making much headway. Unless one side or the other ups the offensive I’m guessing that both sides will grow tired of fighting eventually.