# Michigan may be lost by Harris due to Arab/Muslim voters anger **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [November 4, 2024, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/michigan-may-be-lost-by-harris-due-to-arab-muslim-voters-anger/1009645 "2024-11-04T02:15:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 35
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/michigan-may-be-lost-by-harris-due-to-arab-muslim-voters-anger/1009645/35 "2024-11-04T03:38:08Z")
From where we have discussed this before: > [@How can Donald Trump win at this point?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3305): > > It would be a mistake to dismiss them. And they can easily have the impact overestimated. [Best estimate](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians) is that Biden took the Arab vote 64 to 35. IF that instead goes down to 40 40 and 20% Stein then it is a net impact of 45K. Not insignificant in a very tight state if it happens. Under 1% but it could be a critical number. But we don’t really have good data that that is going to happen when push comes to shove. The data we have mostly comes from The Arab Institute which may have a particula… Recapping - IF the Arab Institute and the YouGov poll (that had a majority of respondents who voted in 2020 saying they voted for Trump when actual voting was two to one Biden) are accurate, then the impact could be as much as 45K votes. It is NOT impossible for all of: those polls are correct ; MI will be THE tipping point state; AND for it to be decided by 45K or less. And voters in MI of Arab descent who would have voted for the D candidate if not for events in Gaza, are aware of that possibility, aware that theirs is THE vote that might have kept Trump out of the White House. That’s a scary thought to think. Now some think that anything different might be better. But most are very aware that Trump would be much worse. The fact that it is possible to not just be a sign of protest but THE tipping point vote that decides the presidency and what happens in the ME, the numbers who will die as a consequence of Trump as president? That may be … sobering. Personally though I do not see those two polls or anecdata as good evidence that such will happen, and I am expected that there will be SOME systemic error of significance one way or the other. MI will IMHO be won or lost by more than 45K and so will the mass of swing states as a group. If the result is that Harris loses MI then I would shocked if she wouldn’t have lost with a win in MI. Likewise in a win. This group of states all within 1% will likely all go one way or the other together. ETA. I am very sure that Harris has private polling much more reliable than these publicly available ones. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/michigan-may-be-lost-by-harris-due-to-arab-muslim-voters-anger/1009645)._