# Mid-term prediction **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 8, 2018, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108 "2018-01-08T04:40:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2018, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108/61 "2018-01-18T02:45:08Z")
> [@](#): > > “No single special election alone is predictive of the midterms, but 34 state legislative seats that have flipped, on top of the margins in Virginia and the win in Alabama, show a pretty clear trend of voters just not being that into Republicans right now,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. "I wouldn’t want to be a Republican in a district that Trump won by less than 17 points.” [From this Politico article.](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/republicans-wisconsin-special-election-surprise-345082) I recall reading elsewhere - that I can’t find right now - that the average swing from Republican to Democrat has been ~23% in all elections since the Presidential one. I think I’ll agree with Jesse quoted above. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2018, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108/62 "2018-01-18T14:59:06Z")
In 2012 I wanted to bet on Romney — first I’d open an account at a U.K. sportsbook — but hate sending my credit card info on-line so _ **resisted the temptation** _. This worked out well. Four years later, I’d surely have bet thousands of dollars on Hillary — a sure thing — but, still nervous about on-line CC info theft, _ **resisted the temptation** _. Another winning decision! I’m going to keep this winning streak alive by again resisting the temptation to make a prediction. > [@dtilque](#): > > OK, so my prediction: D+100. :eek: Wow!! _ **I love your prediction!** _ I can’t really admire your optimism however; optimism breeds complacency, and with complacency the Democrats may manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one more time. If the Congress really does turn Blue in 2019 (O frabjous day!) we must give thanks to the GOP electorate who finally voted honestly, choosing a man who epitomizes their ideals. Kudos to the GOP base who didn’t compromise in 2016 with an almost-as-detestable hypocrite like Rubio or Pence pretending to have humane values — instead they abandoned all pretense and found a candidate who represents their ideals perfectly! And — if there really is a Blue landslide — special thanks to the GOP gerrymanderers! It’s a mathematical fact that districting carefully drawn to maximize R seats backfires, and leads to D landslide if sentiment shifts a few percent. D+100 would be cause to call a national holiday and ring the bells continuously from sea to shining sea!! I’ll settle for D+30. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2018, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108/63 "2018-01-29T03:21:05Z")
I wonder how much of a difference this makes: [Koch Network to Spend Big on Mid-Term Elections](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-kochs/fearing-democratic-wave-koch-network-to-spend-big-on-u-s-midterm-elections-idUSKBN1FI07H?il=0) (Reuters) Nice when one family attempts to control the entire government for us all, isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2018, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108/64 "2018-01-29T04:24:03Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I wonder how much of a difference this makes: > > [Koch Network to Spend Big on Mid-Term Elections](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-kochs/fearing-democratic-wave-koch-network-to-spend-big-on-u-s-midterm-elections-idUSKBN1FI07H?il=0) (Reuters) > > Nice when one family attempts to control the entire government for us all, isn’t it? Yes that is infuriating. Double infuriating when you understand that the Koch brothers will save 1-2 billion a year due to the GOP tax cut. So they are using a small % of the money they got in the tax cut to buy politicians. This is why the GOP pushed so hard for their tax cut, because they need the revolving door of bribery and regulatory capture to keep operating. But money isn’t everything. Hillary spent 1.2 billion while Trump only spent 600 million, and Hillary still lost. [https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/](https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/) ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2018, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108/65 "2018-01-29T04:32:45Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Yes that is infuriating. Double infuriating when you understand that the Koch brothers will save 1-2 billion a year due to the GOP tax cut. So they are using a small % of the money they got in the tax cut to buy politicians. This is why the GOP pushed so hard for their tax cut, because they need the revolving door of bribery and regulatory capture to keep operating. > > But money isn’t everything. Hillary spent 1.2 billion while Trump only spent 600 million, and Hillary still lost. > > [https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/](https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/) Yes, exactly. OTOH, I don’t think this is going to be a money election. At least, I hope not. It must be an integrity election. Unfortunately, money _will_ be a factor. So will foreign influence. So will corrupt Republicans already in control. Dems are going to have to fight harder than they ever have in my memory. If ever there were a year to spend time on Get Out the Vote efforts, these mid-terms are it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mid-term-prediction/806108.md?page=3)