# Mideast war and political consequences **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [October 1, 2024, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347 "2024-10-01T18:21:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/21 "2024-10-02T15:55:54Z")
Not sure where it comes from but there is a comment above my post: โ€œAs it is the OP hijacking his own thread. It appears theyโ€™re expanding the threadโ€™s subject. {WE?}โ€ Just to clarify, this thread is about both the war and its political consequences as indicated by both the title and the opening post, so no I am not hijacking my own thread. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/22 "2024-10-02T16:59:27Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Far be it from me to speak on behalf of Jews or Israelis but I think he should be absolutely terrifying to both. I am a Jew but can only speak as an individual. This is low on my list of what terrifies me about Trump. His dynamic is more his Putin worship vs his need for adulation from his base which includes some very pro Israel fundamentalist Christians. Putin would love to see the United States withdraw from its involvement in the ME and cede it to Russian and China to squabble over. But his base would balk at that. What is a narcissistic wannabe fascist dictator Putin fanbois to do? I suspect Israeli ground operations will be limited. I hope the counterstrike in Iran that will happen in the not distant future is calibrated to be small enough to be considered a deescalation. Iran has some face saved but is defanged for now and maybe a ceasefire then happens. I dream. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/23 "2024-10-02T17:04:54Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > My guess is they will try some ground incursions, meet with ferocious resistance and then mostly go back to what they do best: bomb buildings and kill civilians. ๐Ÿ™„ Civilians like Nasrallah? > [@Lantern2](#): > > There are already some early,unconfirmed reports that Israel is struggling with its ground attacks. Maybe you should cite some of these mysterious โ€œreportsโ€. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/24 "2024-10-02T17:10:12Z")
> **[Israel says 8 soldiers killed in Lebanon amid "intense fighting" on the...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-war-ground-operations-as-hamas-war-continues/)** > > Israel says troops carrying out cross-border raids in Lebanon are engaged in "intense fighting" with Hezbollah militants. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/25 "2024-10-02T17:17:53Z")
Oh, ok, so the reports say that there is _heavy fighting_, not that Israel is _struggling_? Or did you quote the wrong โ€œreportsโ€? But you also describe Israel as โ€œbombing buildings and killing civiliansโ€, so I suppose I should have been more skeptical to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/26 "2024-10-02T17:21:14Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > It will be interesting to see to what extent Israel launches a ground invasion of Lebanon. Per Hagari, the goal is a limited invasion to clear out Hezbollah strongholds from southern Lebanon, with no plan to permanently push Hezbollah from the region or hold the territory. (Video is in English.) > **[ืฆื”"ืœ ืœื ื™ื›ื‘ื•ืฉ ืืช ื“ืจื•ื ืœื‘ื ื•ืŸ. ืืœื” ืžื˜ืจื•ืช ื”ืคืขื•ืœื” ื”ืงืจืงืขื™ืช](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/bkqmmhycc?utm_source=ynet.app.android&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=general_share&utm_term=bkqmmhycc&utm_content=Header)** > > ืฆื”"ืœ ืœื ืžืชื›ื ืŸ ืœื”ืจื—ื™ืง ืืช ื—ื™ื–ื‘ืืœืœื” ืืœ ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœืœื™ื˜ื ื™, ืืœื "ืœื ืงื•ืช" ื‘ืฉื™ื˜ืชื™ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืžืขืจื›ื™ื ื”ืงื“ืžื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ื‘ืœื™ื. ื‘ื™ืฉืจืืœ ืื•ืžืจื™ื ื›ื™ ื”ืžื‘ืฆืข ื™ื™ืงื— ื›ืžื” ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืฆืจื™ืš, ืžืชื•ืš ืžื˜ืจื” ืœืชืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืœื™ื™ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืœ ื”ืกื“ืจื” ืืคืฉืจื™ืช. ืžืชื•ื•ื™ ื”ืชื’ื•ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืื™ืจืืŸ, ื•ื’ื™ืœื•ื™ื™ื ื—ื“ืฉื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืคืฉื™ื˜ื•ืช... ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/27 "2024-10-02T17:22:19Z")
I would say 8 soldiers being killed before Israeli troops have barely entered Lebanon is a pretty bad start. As for civilians I believe the death toll of children alone in Gaza is close to 20,000. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/28 "2024-10-02T17:23:29Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > As for civilians I believe the death toll of children alone in Gaza is close to 20,000. Thatโ€™s when happens when you place your terrorist strongholds under homes, hospitals, and schools. But Iโ€™m sure you deny that reality, too. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/29 "2024-10-02T17:24:13Z")
So every child that was killed was over a terrorist stronghold?I would love to see the detailed evidence for that for the 20000 that have been killed. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/30 "2024-10-02T17:26:09Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > So every child that was killed was under a terrorist stronghold? So Israel bombs children for shits and giggles? I am sure you have at least an _ounce_ of evidence for that claim. > [@Lantern2](#): > > I would love to see the detailed evidence for that for the 20000 that have been killed. Iโ€™m sure thatโ€™s the exact same standard you apply to every other ongoing war on the planet, right? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/31 "2024-10-02T17:29:26Z")
Actually yes I would condemn pretty much any government which kills 20000 children in the space of one year in a place with a total population of 2 million. Which other recent wars is this true? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/32 "2024-10-02T17:40:44Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > Actually yes I would condemn pretty much any government which kills 20000 children in the space of one year in a place with a total population of 2 million. Nice try, buddy, but the question is whether you insist that _every_ military release detailed information about how it chose to target every strike, or if you only apply that to Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/33 "2024-10-02T17:42:14Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > Which other recent wars is this true? The ratio of combatants to non combatants killed has been about 1 to 3; can you name any other modern war in a heavily urban environment with that good a ratio? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/34 "2024-10-02T17:48:54Z")
First do you have a reliable source for that ratio ? And what is the general ratio for other similar wars. Without accurate data itโ€™s hardly possible to make any assessment. Anyway thinking of recent wars, I have no problems condemning the governments of Russia, Syria and Myanmar. All of them have committed war crimes just like Israel has. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/35 "2024-10-02T17:58:13Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > First do you have a reliable source for that ratio ? [https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/) If anything the ratio in this war is better, closer to 1:1.5 than 1:3. > [@Lantern2](#): > > And what is the general ratio for other similar wars. 1:3 is what the ratio has tended to be for Israeli/Palestinian conflicts. Eventually the Palestinian numbers end up relatively reliable, once they drop obvious lies like the alleged 471 dead in a parking lot (from a misfired PIJ rocket mind you) a few years after the shooting stops. Around that same time, they tend to admit that the Israeli count of fighters was correct. 1:9 is the more standard global rate for urban warfare. > [@Lantern2](#): > > Anyway thinking of recent wars, I have no problems condemning the governments of Russia, Syria and Myanmar Yes, all three of those governments deliberately and systematically kill, displace, and reeducate civilians in order to ethnically cleansed their nations (or the land they desire to add to their nation, in Russiaโ€™s case). Unlike Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/36 "2024-10-02T18:03:22Z")
I mean your source just quotes an estimate provided by the Israeli government with zero independent analysis or evidence. What is your source for 1:9 for a general ratio for urban warfare. Which recent wars has this been observed? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/37 "2024-10-02T18:10:02Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > I mean your source just quotes an estimate provided by the Israeli government with zero independent analysis or evidence. So do you demand โ€œindependent analysisโ€ for every claim the US army makes? What about European armies? > [@Lantern2](#): > > What is your source for 1:9 for a general ratio for urban warfare. Which recent wars has this been observed? There are lots of sources; hereโ€™s the UN: > **[Ninety Per Cent of War-Time Casualties Are Civilians, Speakers Stress,...](https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc14904.doc.htm)** > > With civilians accounting for nearly 90ย perย cent of war-time casualties and humanitarians threatened with arrest for providing aid to โ€œthe enemyโ€, the Security Council simply must do more to ensure the protection of innocent people caught amid the... ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/38 "2024-10-02T18:15:40Z")
I mean there is just a headline saying that 90% of casualties are civilians according to speakers. There is not even a specific person quoted. Can you point to some actual study which ideally looks at specific wars. As for independent analysis sure, I donโ€™t take at face value statements made by governments about their own potential misdeeds. That definitely includes the US army in Iraq/Afghanistan etc. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/39 "2024-10-02T18:40:26Z")
@Lantern2 not my thread, so let me know? Is this a thread specifically about the political implications of recent events in Lebanon and the widening of conflict, or another thread to repeat the same back and forth about Gaza? Speculation, especially informed, about what happens next, I am interested in reading about. The stuff above (that admittedly I sped over) not so much so. So if thatโ€™s what it is please let me know so I can bug out. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347/40 "2024-10-02T18:42:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > or another thread to repeat the same back and forth about Gaza? Thatโ€™s where the OP took it himself, with comments like: > [@Lantern2](#): > > My guess is they will try some ground incursions, meet with ferocious resistance and then mostly go back to what they do best: bomb buildings and kill civilians. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mideast-war-and-political-consequences/1008347.md?page=3)