# Midterm Election Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2002, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398 "2002-11-05T17:22:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![middleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9a140/32.png) [@middleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/middleman)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/1 "2002-11-05T17:22:55Z")
I little survey here to spark the discussion. ARKANSAS MARK PRYOR (D) VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON MARGIN: COLORADO TOM STRICKLAND (D) VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ® MARGIN: GEORGIA SEN. MAX CLELAND (D) VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLIS ® MARGIN: LOUISIANA SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D) VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ® (RUNOFF?) MARGIN: MINNESOTA WALTER MONDALE (D) VS. NORM COLEMAN ® MARGIN: MISSOURI SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. REP. JIM TALENT ® MARGIN: NEW HAMPSHIRE GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D) VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ® MARGIN: NEW JERSEY FRANK “THE CHEATER” LAUGHTENBURG (D) VS. DOUG “I WAS ROBBED!” FORRESTER ® MARGIN: NORTH CAROLINA ERSKINE BOWLES (D) VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ® MARGIN: NORTH DAKOTA SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D) VS. JOHN THUNE® MARGIN: TEXAS RON KIRK (D) VS. JOHN CORNYN ® MARGIN: OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)? A. BEFORE 7PM B. 7PM-8PM C. 8PM-9PM D. 9PM-MIDNIGHT E. HE WILL NOT ACT LIKE A MORON WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD? YES NO WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES? YES NO OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES? GOP GAINS SEATS DNC GAINS SEATS NO CHANGE ---
**Author:** ![middleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9a140/32.png) [@middleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/middleman)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/2 "2002-11-05T17:27:37Z")
ARKANSAS MARK PRYOR (D) VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON MARGIN: Pryor by 6 COLORADO TOM STRICKLAND (D) VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ® MARGIN: Strickland by 4 GEORGIA SEN. MAX CLELAND (D) VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLIS ® MARGIN: Chamblis by 1 LOUISIANA SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D) VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ® (RUNOFF?) MARGIN: Landrieu gets 46 percent and wins the DEC runoff MINNESOTA WALTER MONDALE (D) VS. NORM COLEMAN ® MARGIN: Mondale by 4 MISSOURI SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. REP. JIM TALENT ® MARGIN: Talent by 2 NEW HAMPSHIRE GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D) VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ® MARGIN: Shaheen by 2 NEW JERSEY FRANK “THE CHEATER” LAUGHTENBURG (D) VS. DOUG “I WAS ROBBED!” FORRESTER ® MARGIN: Laughtenburg by 11 NORTH CAROLINA ERSKINE BOWLES (D) VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ® MARGIN: Dole by 5 NORTH DAKOTA SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D) VS. JOHN THUNE® MARGIN: Thune by 2 TEXAS RON KIRK (D) VS. JOHN CORNYN ® MARGIN: Cornyn by 7 Basically, seats will change hands, but the balance remains the same. OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)? B. 7PM-8PM WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD? YES WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES? YES- South Dakota and possibly MINN OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES? GOP GAINS SEATS (+2) ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/3 "2002-11-05T18:24:19Z")
I don’t think I can pick individual races, but based on these polling numbers and breakdown from [Gallup](http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr021104b.asp), along with what appears to a [Late Shift Toward Republicans in Congressional Vote](http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr021104.asp), I would say 50/50 that the Republicans take the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/4 "2002-11-05T22:25:01Z")
My picks are in bold face. The margin, of course, applies to the winning candidates and how much they won by. ARKANSAS **MARK PRYOR (D)** VS. SEN. TIM HUTCHISON MARGIN: 4 COLORADO **TOM STRICKLAND (D)** VS. SEN. WAYNE ALLARD ® MARGIN: 3 GEORGIA **SEN. MAX CLELAND (D)** VS. REP. SAXBY CHAMBLISS ® MARGIN: 2 LOUISIANA **SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D)** VS. THREE GOP CHALLENGERS ® (RUNOFF?) Yes. MARGIN: 45% for Landrieu; she will win the runoff. MINNESOTA **WALTER MONDALE (D)** VS. NORM COLEMAN ® MARGIN: 4 MISSOURI SEN. JEAN CARNAHAN (D) VS. \*\*REP. JIM TALENT ® \*\* MARGIN: 1 NEW HAMPSHIRE **GOV. JEAN SHAHEEN (D)** VS. REP. JOHN SUNNUNU ® MARGIN: 1 NEW JERSEY **FRANK LAUTENBURG (D)** VS. DOUG FORRESTER ® MARGIN: 7 NORTH CAROLINA **ERSKINE BOWLES (D)** VS. ELIZABETH DOLE ® MARGIN: 1 SOUTH DAKOTA (not NORTH DAKOTA) **SEN. TIM JOHNSON (D)** VS. JOHN THUNE® MARGIN: \>1 TEXAS RON KIRK (D) VS. \*\*JOHN CORNYN ® \*\* MARGIN: 2 OTHER RACES/PREDICTIONS WHEN WILL DAN RATHER FIRST BREAK INTO COLORFUL METAPHOR-LIKE LANGUAGE (CST)? \*\*A. BEFORE 7PM \*\* B. 7PM-8PM C. 8PM-9PM D. 9PM-MIDNIGHT E. HE WILL NOT ACT LIKE A MORON WILL RUSSERT BREAK OUT HIS DRY ERASE BOARD? YES \*\*NO \*\* WILL THERE BE A MAJOR LEGAL CONTEST IN ANY OF THE SENATE RACES? **HELL, YES** —Watch for fun in Texas and Arkansas. YES NO OUTCOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES? GOP GAINS SEATS \*\*DEMOCRATS GAIN SEATS—+6 \*\* NO CHANGE ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/5 "2002-11-05T22:29:46Z")
BTW, Drudge has early exit polls posted. These were not completely accurate last time around, but interesting nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2002, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/6 "2002-11-05T22:33:05Z")
Um… **Lautenberg wins New Jersey by 7** , despite local vandals’ attacks on his campaign posters last night. I just messed up my bolding. I really should check these things before I post. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2002, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/7 "2002-11-06T04:55:16Z")
Hmm things are looking bad for the Dems. It looks like the GOP will keep the House and take the Senate. They have lost New Hampshire and are behind in Georgia and Colorada. If they lose Minnesota it will be a disaster. Then even the Louisiana run-off won’t matter. I guess their only hope is that they manage to get 48 seats (including Lousiana eventually) and then Chafee pulls a switcheroo to hand back the Senate to them. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2002, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/8 "2002-11-06T06:43:01Z")
The Senate is basically down to two races: South Dakota and Minnesota. In the first the Democrat holds a wafer-thin lead while in the second Mondale is trailing by 7 points but with lots of votes still uncounted. The Dems have to pull both these races and also win the Louisiana run-off to keep the Senate. If they win one and win the run-off they will depend on a Chafee switcheroo. If they lose both they are done for. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2002, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/9 "2002-11-06T06:53:03Z")
My figures were out-of-date. Thune, the Republican, is leading by 3000 votes in South Dakota. Things are looking VERY bad for the Democrats. I wonder if heads will roll in their leadership Isn’t anyone else interested in the election?. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2002, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/10 "2002-11-06T16:12:45Z")
Nope, Johnson squeaked through, 167,481 to 166,954. Recount, anyone? If Chafee switches, so will Miller, for no net effect. Neither will happen. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2002, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/midterm-election-races/135398/11 "2002-11-06T16:20:32Z")
Not that it matters now but I had made a mistake; the Dems needed all three last seats **and** Chafee to get back the Senate. Mondale’s loss means that the GOP majority is Chafee-proof. “If Chafee switches, so will Miller, for no net effect” Well Miller didn’t switch after Jefforts so I am not sure why he would have switched after Chafee. All moot now of course.