Military Procurement

Only 80-300 billion, but that’s Canadian dollars, with delivery in a few short decades. May be vulnerable to attack.

So why the difference?

Canada wants weapons; Poland needs them.

That explains much of the difference, especially the high velocity. But it doesn’t really explain the slower side.

Buying off the shelf stuff is very different from commissioning the design of something new.

As well for an in-production system there’s a lot of room for governments to sell stuff already sitting in their warehouses & storage yards then backfill those “lightly used” delivieries with new stuff from the factory later. That’s largely what’s going on in Poland.

The vast majority of what the US has sent to Ukraine so far is not stuff coming out of our factories now. It’s stuff that was built a decade or more ago and was simply shipped from our warehouses, leaving bare shelves behind. In future years we hope to produce enough stuff to refill those shelves and maybe even grow them.

But right now the US shelves are largely bare and Ukraine is absorbing most (all?) of what trickle is coming out of our factories. Getting production rates up is the work of months and years, while getting warehouse stocks up is the work of fews-of-years and decades.

As to Canadian procurement, there’s a lot of other issues. Canada’s defense market, like most middling countries, isn’t big enough to amortize what are essentially one-off designs across long production runs. So the cost per piece becomes eye-watering. Which in turn triggers bureaucratic caution to be absolutely certain no screw-ups occur since a bad buy will cripple the service for decades.

Couple political uncertainty about changing defense priorities and budgets plus the ever-accelerating pace of technological progress to a 10-20 year purchase cycle and it’s a recipe for total paralysis. Canada is not in any sense unique in this. Many other middling powers get into the same exact quagmire, whether buying ships, tanks, airplanes, etc.

Larger countries like USA, Russia, and China face a different set of obstacles, but there are still obstacles.