nm. not helpful.
I heard (not sure where) that they had done this kind of thing before.
All of which makes me leads me to ask, has anyone heard anything on the drilling side of the equation? Are they working on gaining access by digging to reach them?
From the BBC article posted by PastTense https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44692813:
The “four months” is the time until the end of the rainy season (which is just starting, producing the flooding that trapped the team). IOW, if they can’t get the team out with scuba gear, they will have to wait until the floodwaters recede.
They’ll need to figure out where on the ground is the best place to do that. This was an issue with the two aforementioned near-disasters; at one point in the Pennsylvania rescue, a drill bit broke, and everyone realized later that this was a good thing because conditions were such that had they broken through uninterrupted, water would have backed up and drowned the miners.
It sounds like draining the cave is the best idea right now.
Yea, they are not gonna get them out diving. I can see a long wait for the boys. Hope I am wrong.
I heard a reporter at the site say this morning that the temp in the cave is 100 degrees. Seems like this would warm up the water.
Here’s a fairly detailed account from the CBC. Sounds like the dive is highflying challenging for skilled divers; very difficult for completely untrained kids. Sounds like a last option.
They’re exploring drilling down, but the spot where they are is pretty small. The article doesn’t say expressly, but I took from it that there would be a risk of collapsing the small area by drilling down.
One of the articles I saw about this had the headline “Experts wonder how they’re still alive” and I admit my horrible personhood by telling you that “Timothy” started to play in my head…
Water has the highest capacity for absorbing heat than any other material. The heat of the air won’t even register.
And the water is flowing, isn’t it, so it will conduct the heat away, thus keeping the temperature down.
Air temperatrue in the cave is about mid 70s °F per CNN which is warm enough to avoid rapid hypothermia assuming they can stay dry. A cave air temp of 100°F will only be found near a source of geothermal heat. This guide to cave diving in Thailand notes water temps between 23°C and 29°C (73.4°F to 84.2°F) in cave systems elsewhere in Thailand.
But water conducts heat much more rapidly than air. And kids generally get colder faster in water since their surface area to body mass ratio is less favorable. So even if the water in the cave is in the 79°F to 84°F range that is typical for sea water in that area it may be cool enough to cause problems.
In my experience teaching scuba in tropical waters the thin kids can get to the point of shivering within 5 minutes in water that is mid 70s °F and in longer time in warmer water. I have seen kids come up from a 30 minute dive in 86°F water and be absolutely shivering even though the adults are comfortable.
So taking these kids out by diving runs the risk of skill degradation due to the effects of cold water temperature. Just one more risk element they need to think about
ABCNews interviewed one of the divers who has been into the chamber. He describes a one and a half hour long hike in the cave carrying/dragging dive and other gear, all before the diving even starts. At times the water visibility was like diving in café au lait with current strong enough to require pulling themselves hand over hand along a fixed line. Water temp in the chamber was about 21°C (69.8°F) and air temp nearly 100°F.
It makes me think they will have to wait until the rainy season is over.
Those are brave divers. Good for them.
Early on, I heard something about it being illegal even to enter that cave but nothing about that since. It would not surprise me, as Thais are notorious scofflaws – there is no crime they will not commit simply out of principle, up to and including murder – and I wonder if the coach is going to be held responsible for getting the students into this mess to begin with. From what I can tell from here, he’s getting a lot of credit for having kept the students together and alive, but that may change.
I think the swim lessons have started. I recall taking the red cross courses at the beach in Falmouth. I completed the first two in one summer. I’d guess each course took about 4 weeks.
Swimming could easily be taught quicker in this situation. A lot of it is gaining confidence. Don’t freak out when your head goes under water. Learn the dead man float. Learn to float on your back.
Scuba? Don’t tourists take a mini course in a few days? But that’s easy recreational diving. Closely supervised by the dive boat staff.
Getting these kids out safely will be challenging.
I lived in northern Thailand for two years and am familiar with that area of Chiang Rai. The cave systems are pretty grand there and up into Laos. My province, Mae Hong Son, was home to the largest cave system in Southeast Asia, although a larger one may have been found elsewhere in the region since then.
There is a one day mini-course variously called a Discover Scuba Diving or Try Dive experience. It is a pool session to go over some basic skills and get used to breathing through a regulator. It can, and often in tourist destinations is, be followed by an open water dive on a reef. This one day experience usually sticks to a depth limit of 40ft (12m) for the open water dive.
Even a full open water scuba certification course can be hurriedly completed in about 3 days. It requires some classroom training, five pool sessions, and four open water dives. Maximum depth is 40ft (12m) for the first two open water dives and 60ft (18m) for the third and fourth open water dives. Open water certification trains a diver to dive with a certified buddy to a depth of 60ft independent of supervision by a dive professional. Obviously this course is under the direct in water supervision of one or more dive professionals.
Additional training is recommended for deeper dives, for use of gas mixtures other than air, for use of multiple tanks while diving, and especially for cave diving.
I have read that they may need to dive as deep as 130ft (30m) under the water surface to clear one of the obstructions. Hopefully it is actually shallower than that. But that depth is considered the absolute limit for normal recreational scuba diving by most training agencies. And typically kids would be limited to shallower depths 40ft at age 10-11 and 60ft at age 12-14.
But this is anything but normal times. Just the thought of putting an 11yr old into a cave diving scenario in near zero visibility water with a strong current would seem to me to be a recklessly dangerous act, even when accompanied by experts in underwater cave rescue. But it may be the only option if the water rises as more rain falls. This may come down to dive or drown. It that case take your chances and dive.
I think you’re right and what’s going to decide the fate of the coach is whether everyone gets out alive. If so, he might not get raked over the coals. But if one or more kids die in the dive, he’s in deep doo doo.
BTW, I don’t know if it’s possible, but I’d expect the cave entrance to be closed with a locked gate after this, and only opened when it’s safe.
I’ve already seen the news reports saying the government now plans to open the cave as a tourist attraction once everyone is out. They are going to milk the publicity for all it is worth. I would expect no less.