# Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [March 13, 2012, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702 "2012-03-13T23:56:09Z")
**Posts on this page:** 7
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2012, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/61 "2012-03-14T19:18:51Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#):
>
> It had always been my sense that they can be released, but not directly to a specific candidate, only to their own devices.
>
> I’m always happy to learn more, though.
You’re correct about that part. The candidates can endorse people, but they can’t reassign their delegates like that.
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### Author:  [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/62 "2012-03-14T19:33:17Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#):
>
> Dunno, but even if it would technically have to go to a second round of voting, if Gingrich publicly endorsed Santorum and the combined S + G delegate count was \> 1144 or whatever (or even greater than whatever Romney ends up with), it’s pretty likely the convention would end up nominating Santorum.
> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> One entertaining possibility – if Romney misses the delegate mark by just _that_ much, he could make a deal with Ron Paul as a final thumb in the eye to Gingrich and Santorum. The fallout would be… interesting.
As others have indicated, it doesn’t work that way. The GOP also has Super Delegates who can vote for whomever they want. These are old school party bosses who will overwhelmingly go Romney for the good of the party. It’s very likely that Romney will have a majority by the time of the convention. It’s a simple matter of looking at the demographics of what is yet to come. Doing a mathematical analysis and calculating the odds as if each remaining contest is random is a waste of time.
There is a reasonable chance, I’d say less than 10%, that Romney won’t have quite enough to have an outright majority though. In that case, he will very easily have enough on the second vote to get over the top.
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### Author:  [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2012, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/63 "2012-03-14T23:27:05Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> Santorum passed his sell-by date almost a decade ago, since he’s a Bush-era big government social conservative, and the fact that people gave him a look this year shows how bad things are.
I hope you are right. As has been pointed out several times, if Romney loses it is likely the ultra-right wingers will say it’s because he wasn’t conservative enough. In fact, they hate Obama so much I imagine they will be in a complete frenzy by 2016 if he is reelected. Who is waiting in the wings for 2016 that will fill that bill as well as Santorum? His crazy talk certainly seems to have resonated with the social conservatives pretty well. I don’t see Christie, Daniels or Jeb Bush being likely to satisfy them nearly as well.
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### Author:  [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)
#### Post date: [March 15, 2012, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/64 "2012-03-15T00:16:46Z")
Well, Christie’s a bully and conservatives like bullies. He may have a shot if he can make it to 2016 without having a massive heart attack.
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### Author:  [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)
#### Post date: [March 15, 2012, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/65 "2012-03-15T01:42:39Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#):
>
> I hope you are right. As has been pointed out several times, if Romney loses it is likely the ultra-right wingers will say it’s because he wasn’t conservative enough. In fact, they hate Obama so much I imagine they will be in a complete frenzy by 2016 if he is reelected. Who is waiting in the wings for 2016 that will fill that bill as well as Santorum? His crazy talk certainly seems to have resonated with the social conservatives pretty well. I don’t see Christie, Daniels or Jeb Bush being likely to satisfy them nearly as well.
Sarah Palin, Bachmann, and Paul Ryan are the likeliest options. On the other hand, this sort of reactionary binge may peak in 2014 and with the Boomers steadily aging, it may be the last hurrah of reactionarism in the GOP. Then the Millennials decide to back someone realistic rather than “Paul for Pot and Peace”.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [March 15, 2012, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/66 "2012-03-15T11:55:34Z")
Palin and Bachmann are not serious choices. They may excel at serving up red meat for the base, but when forced to go off script and debate they just don’t measure up and even the whackiest whack job can see that. Paul Ryan lacks Mitt Romney’s raw charisma and connection to the voters. If Romney loses, the GOP base will go apoplectic and nominate a True Believer in 2016, someone exactly like Rick Santorum. Well, actually it will BE Santorum. He is the one who can adhere to Republican orthodoxy and it will be his turn.
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### Author:  [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)
#### Post date: [March 15, 2012, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/67 "2012-03-15T16:01:20Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#):
>
> Sarah Palin, Bachmann, and Paul Ryan are the likeliest options. On the other hand, this sort of reactionary binge may peak in 2014 and with the Boomers steadily aging, it may be the last hurrah of reactionarism in the GOP. Then the Millennials decide to back someone realistic rather than “Paul for Pot and Peace”.
Palin and Bachman are idiots. If they got the nomination the election would be a landslide of historic proportions for anyone who ended up with the Democratic nomination.
Paul Ryan comes across as mean and unfeeling therefore he probably would have a certain appeal to a part of the Republican base. The Dems would have an easy time defeating him too since he could be painted as wanting to take away Medicare and let Grandma and Granpa die out in the cold.
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