# MLB: 2013 Postseason
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [September 30, 2013, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978 "2013-09-30T04:26:04Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 14
### Author:  [@Tanbarkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tanbarkie)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/261 "2013-10-11T17:15:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Good grief. :dubious:
>
> If each series is determined by luck, with a 0.5 probability of winning, then making the Series is a 1 in 4 shot for each participant (ignoring the new wild-card play-in shit), and winning it is 1 in 8. Oakland has made the playoffs 7 times under Beane, so they should have made it twice by now, and won it once - by his own damn loser’s logic.
Methinks you need to take some remedial probability. A one in four chance does not mean that in seven attempts, you’re guaranteed to “make it” once. It means you’re more _likely_ to have done so than not, but missing out all seven times is still a fairly likely outcome.
I don’t personally think the playoffs are a true dice roll - for example, having 2-3 true aces can make a real difference given the way playoff rosters vary from regular season rosters. But your logic here is, frankly, terrible.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/262 "2013-10-11T17:24:15Z")
Who said “guaranteed”? :dubious: “Should have” in this context means “the most probable result is”.
At a 0.5 probability for each series, failing to get even to the finals in 7 tries is a 13.3% probability, something you with your allegedly-superior mathematical skills obviously must know even if you don’t deign to calculate it yourself, but you still call “fairly likely”. :dubious:
There are many sayings in sports, but one is “Stats are for losers. Winners win.”
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/263 "2013-10-11T17:25:21Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Because only location permits a high payroll sustainably.
Then you left out some other teams that can sustain a high payroll. But the weird part here is that it sounds like you’re saying that it doesn’t count if a team briefly has a greater payroll over the short term. Oakland is sustainably outspent by almost everybody right now. That’s been sustained for years and years. Not all the teams spend a ton more, but a lot of them do. The only good team the A’s outspent this year was Tampa, and even the bad teams spent more than they did except for Miami and Houston, who are truly bottoming out and have no expectation of being good for a few more years. The teams that make and win the Series generally spend way more than Oakland does whether those teams are based in New York/L.A./Boston or not.
> [@](#):
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> Demoralization is only part of the problem.
I’m not convinced it’s a problem at all.
> [@](#):
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> Beane’s refusal to accept that there is such a thing as building a team for the playoffs, much less to \*do \*it, is the more fundamental problem.
That would be a bigger problem, yes. What is it that he’s not doing, in your view? Just getting the wrong players? Not splurging for big names, which does seem to help? Not enough hitting? Give me a clue here. Every time the team has lost in the ALDS since 2000, it’s been in a game five. I have trouble taking that as a structural flaw. They’re not getting blown out of the water, they’re losing close ones. The Tigers didn’t get lucky Justin Verlander pitched well - it’s what Verlander does - but I’m not hearing what the A’s aren’t doing. I’m just hearing that they’re doing it wrong.
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> Implausible? Hardly. And I said being stupid or lazy was a possibility, I never said he was without a doubt either of those things. And re-read those possibilities, none of those are “pretty much the same thing.”
Yes, you said he might be trying to redefine success or just isn’t under pressure. I have zero confidence that any of those are good theories. The luck thing wasn’t an explanation of why he doesn’t try to build a team that wins playoff series; it was an explanation of the limits of what a GM can do.
> [@](#):
>
> Sooo…ya really think that’s what I’m saying here?
It’s one of the options you suggested, yes. It’s very silly.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/264 "2013-10-11T17:26:03Z")
> [@etv78](#):
>
> I do understand! I understand that the owners would rather make $$ than win championships.
Depends on the owners. Some are simply businessmen, but many are fans of their own teams too, fans who would dearly love to get sprayed with champagne and make speeches at their own victory parties and ride in their own parades and lord it over all their colleagues.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/265 "2013-10-11T17:32:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> But the weird part here is that it sounds like you’re saying that it doesn’t count if a team briefly has a greater payroll over the short term.
The only weird part is your comprehension. A small-market team, say Tampa Bay, can have a high, competitive payroll, even enough to win it all, for a brief period, but they’ll pay for it either before or afterward or both.
> [@](#):
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> even the bad teams spent more than they did except for Miami and Houston
Certainly spending the money is not a sufficient condition. You have to spend it _smartly_, too. 😉
> [@](#):
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> What is it that he’s not doing, in your view? Just getting the wrong players? Not splurging for big names, which does seem to help? Not enough hitting? Give me a clue here.
All of the above.
> [@](#):
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> They’re not getting blown out of the water, they’re losing close ones.
And that’s where getting, or developing, that one extra bat, that one shutdown reliever, that one dependable starter would have made the difference. Every time. Beane won’t fucking do it, he’ll just tell you how smart he is for \*not \*doing it.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/266 "2013-10-11T17:56:39Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> A small-market team, say Tampa Bay, can have a high, competitive payroll, even enough to win it all, for a brief period, but they’ll pay for it either before or afterward or both.
Ok. That hasn’t applied to the A’s as far as I can see. Their payroll went all the way up to $80 million one season, but that’s as close as they’ve come to big spending. Their payroll has generally hovered around $60 million in recent years.
> [@](#):
>
> Certainly spending the money is not a sufficient condition. You have to spend it _smartly_, too. 😉
Right. If they make the playoffs pretty regularly while spending way less than most other teams, doesn’t that suggest they’re spending pretty well?
> [@](#):
>
> And that’s where getting, or developing, that one extra bat, that one shutdown reliever, that one dependable starter would have made the difference. Every time. Beane won’t fucking do it, he’ll just tell you how smart he is for \*not \*doing it.
Ok. To his list of crimes we can add ‘consistently refuses to get one player he knows the team needs.’ (This also sounds kind of shaky.)
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### Author:  [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/267 "2013-10-11T18:01:32Z")
I’m seeing quite a bit of Green Lantern theory in here.
The A’s just don’t _want_ to win enough.
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### Author:  [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/268 "2013-10-11T18:13:38Z")
Billy Beane _refuses_ to acknowledge what thirty or forty million dollars worth of pitching would do for Oakland!!
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### Author:  [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/269 "2013-10-11T18:13:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Depends on the owners. Some are simply businessmen, but many are fans of their own teams too, fans who would dearly love to get sprayed with champagne and make speeches at their own victory parties and ride in their own parades and lord it over all their colleagues.
Then it seems self-evident that the A’s brass are in the former category. (like Jeremy Jacobs of the Bruins)
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/270 "2013-10-11T18:19:56Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> Right. If they make the playoffs pretty regularly while spending way less than most other teams, doesn’t that suggest they’re spending pretty well?
A lot of that has to do with their divisional opponents sucking (Sea, Tex, Hou) or being badly built themselves (Ana), don’tcha think? Put them in the East and they’d be eliminated by Labor Day.
> [@](#):
>
> Ok. To his list of crimes we can add ‘consistently refuses to get one player he knows the team needs.’ (This also sounds kind of shaky.)
Ok. Give us your favorite example of his ever getting anybody significant midseason to put them over the top.
Look, guys, just because there’s a book and a movie about what a genius he is, that doesn’t actually \*make \*him one, 'kay?
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/271 "2013-10-11T18:23:28Z")
> [@etv78](#):
>
> Then it seems self-evident that the A’s brass are in the former category. (like Jeremy Jacobs of the Bruins)
Jacobs confuses me. He \*was \*just an out-of-town bloodsucker for _decades_, wasting Ray Bourque’s and Cam Neely’s careers along the way, but somehow it seems he’s mellowed in his dotage. He’s actually let Peter Chiarelli spend the money and make the deals and draft the players, instead of going along with the Harry Sinden approach that trading a dime for three nickels is good, and suddenly the franchise is what it used to be and should always have been once again.
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### Author:  [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/272 "2013-10-11T18:37:17Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Look, guys, just because there’s a book and a movie about what a genius he is, that doesn’t actually \*make \*him one, 'kay?
But…but…but…_statistics_! Don’t you see? Statistics have gotten him exactly where he wants his team! Billy Beane is successful because Billy Beane \*says \*he’s successful! He has _defined_ success!
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/273 "2013-10-11T18:50:15Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> A lot of that has to do with their divisional opponents sucking (Sea, Tex, Hou) or being badly built themselves (Ana), don’tcha think?
The Rangers don’t suck, but sure, having some bad teams in the mix helps Oakland. That’s true in most of the other divisions, too. They’re not all stacked. And you don’t get points for degree of difficulty. Your primary competition is the other teams in your division. If you’re better than them, you get to the playoffs.
> [@](#):
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> Give us your favorite example of his ever getting anybody significant midseason to put them over the top.
Not enough of an A’s fan (not one at all) to say.
> [@](#):
>
> Look, guys, just because there’s a book and a movie about what a genius he is, that doesn’t actually \*make \*him one, 'kay?
Books are for nerds, amirite, David?
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### Author:  [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/274 "2013-10-11T18:51:53Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Ok. Give us your favorite example of his ever getting anybody significant midseason to put them over the top.
Over the top of what? The Series championship? Can’t do that. What’s your favorite Dombrowski pickup? Or did you have another benchmark in mind?
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/275 "2013-10-11T19:01:22Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> And you don’t get points for degree of difficulty.
No, but you do have an easier time winning a division title, to the degree that means anything. But being a B student in a division of C students is no use when you’re up against A students, right?
Just FTR, Oakland was able to win their lame-ass division this year with half their lineup made up of guys Boston _gave away_.
**Peremensoe** , I should have added offseason pickups too. But, since you ask, my favorite \*recent \*Dombrowski midseason pickup is Jose Iglesias this year. I can just see him making the key play to kill a Red Sox rally in Game 7.
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### Author:  [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/276 "2013-10-11T19:27:13Z")
You know, the AL West has usually not been a pushover division. I recall hearing it called the toughest in baseball a time or two during the Beane era. The Rangers have been to the Series, the Angels have won it, the Mariners have set an AL season record for wins. Granted, adding the Astros this year boosted everybody else.
It remains to be seen whether Jose Iglesias or anyone else can put the Tigers over the top. At the moment the Dombrowski Tigers have the same number of rings as the Beane A’s, and have paid a hell of a lot more not to have them.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/277 "2013-10-11T19:33:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> No, but you do have an easier time winning a division title, to the degree that means anything. But being a B student in a division of C students is no use when you’re up against A students, right?
That’s not really how being a student works, but yes, it’s easier to win a title in a weaker division. I don’t think the AL West is especially awful, though. Last year three of the four teams were over .500 and even Seattle wasn’t too bad. This year the Angels were hurt and lousy, Seattle got worse, the Astros aren’t trying to win, so it was easier. Texas should probably be good for a while and I don’t think the Angels could have a worse year, but we’ll see.
> [@](#):
>
> Just FTR, Oakland was able to win their lame-ass division this year with half their lineup made up of guys Boston _gave away_.
But remember, Billy Beane, who got those guys for nothing, sucks. 😉
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### Author:  [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/278 "2013-10-11T19:39:08Z")
Yeah, but Dombrowski, like most every other GM in MLB history, actually has a publically-stated goal of winning the World Series. Beane’s apparently content to just win the division and call it a year. So apparently, he’s redefined MLB success for himself and his ballclub, and people are buying it. Hmm, maybe he is a fucking genius.
Not winning the World Series is a deal-breaker for clubs that actually want to win the World Series, and it can cost management their jobs if losing at the same point in the post season time after time after time after time. For Billy Beane, however, he’s made losing in the ALDS business-as-usual and not his fault. Dombrowski needs to win, or he’ll be gone. Beane just needs to show up and he’s a success? Just because he’s defined success as winning the division?
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/279 "2013-10-11T19:42:10Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> Beane’s apparently content to just win the division and call it a year. So apparently, he’s redefined MLB success for himself and his ballclub, and people are buying it.
Do you think Beane convinced Lew Wolff to have one of the lowest payrolls in the majors?
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### Author:  [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2013, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-2013-postseason/669978/280 "2013-10-11T19:50:48Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> my favorite \*recent \*Dombrowski midseason pickup is Jose Iglesias this year. I can just see him making the key play to kill a Red Sox rally in Game 7.
Or Peralta (in the lineup for his bat) failing to reach a ground ball that goes through for a base hit, sparking the winning Boston rally in game 7.
I can dream.
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