# MLB. And here comes the Post Season! **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 29, 2016, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171 "2016-09-29T00:43:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![zoog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7ea924/32.png) [@zoog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoog)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/681 "2016-10-27T21:08:37Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I should add that it’s somewhat interesting that it’s 1984 for outdoor games. Had the Cubs gotten past the Padres (the Cubs were supposed to have home field advantage that year, and were up 2-0, but had to play the last three at SD due to the fact they didn’t have lights at Wrigley back then–this was when then pennant was best-of-5), all their games at home would have been played during the day. This is something that I hear a lot, and it’s actually a misconception. Back in those days they alternated years, the NL East had 3 games in odd years and the NL West had 3 in even years. This was the West’s turn to have 3 at home. I recall that the schedule did change a little bit for TV purposes, it was a little odd to have no travel day between games 2 & 3 and a day off between 3 & 4. I remember a lot of talk at the time about what to do with the schedule if the Cubs had advanced, and they might have switched home field to avoid having the Cubs home games during the week, figuring that the weekend games during the day would have been less of a problem for ratings. I can’t remember now if those plans were finalized and announced. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/682 "2016-10-27T21:11:59Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I should add that it’s somewhat interesting that it’s 1984 for outdoor games. Had the Cubs gotten past the Padres ( **the Cubs were supposed to have home field advantage that year, and were up 2-0, but had to play the last three at SD due to the fact they didn’t have lights at Wrigley back then** –this was when then pennant was best-of-5), all their games at home would have been played during the day. [my bolding] Nothing to do with lights, or with Wrigley. Through 1984\* the division series (“the playoffs” as they were known before the wild card) was a 2-3 series in which one team got the first two home games and the other team got the last three. Which team was which rotated, and in 1984 it was the western division champion, SD, that got the last three games at home. In 1980, same place in the rotation, the Phillies got the first two games at home and the Astros got the next three. So the schedule was pre-ordained–had the Cardinals, Expos, or Mets won the East that year, the Padres still would have had the last three games. \*Only because after 1984 they switched to a best of seven. After 1984 the Cubs were threatened with having to play any future postseason games in St. Louis or Comiskey if they did not install lights. Could be that’s what you’re remembering. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/683 "2016-10-27T21:16:15Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > But it’s not clear that there is an advantage-- other than psychological – to batting last. I suspect is actually benefits the fielding team more to know exactly how many runs matter. The batting team has very few choices-- steal (or stretch for an extra base) or not, and whether to bunt (or try for a sac fly). But the fielding team can make a lot of choices – intentionally walk, semi-intentional walk, bring infield in, play outfield in, whether to ignore the lead runner if there’s a better chance and an out. It stands to reason that the team making more choices benefits more from knowing how many runs matter. I think it’s more concrete than that. I don’t have the math skills to prove it, so I’ll appeal to common sense: Let’s say 2 evenly matched teams enter the 9th inning tied. If the visitors score 1 run in the 9th, their odds of winning the game shoot up dramatically, but they’re still \< 100%. If the home team scores 1 run in the 9th, their odds of winning = 100%, because the game just ended. Advantage: home team. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/684 "2016-10-27T21:35:03Z")
[We went through this last year](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=765023) in reference to extra inning game, but all arguments apply to the 9th as well. And the conclusion was…not much agreement at all. Statistically, home teams do slightly _worse_ in extra innings than in regular-length games, which suggests batting last isn’t a significant advantage. Or it suggests something else. We didn’t agree much in that thread. ---
**Author:** ![Mister\_Rik](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mister_rik/32/491_2.png) [@Mister\_Rik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mister_Rik)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/685 "2016-10-27T22:46:43Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > I’m sure that MLB and the networks have run the numbers and concluded that they’ll get a bigger audience for the evening slot. Personally, i wouldn’t miss the game no matter when they showed it, but i’d be at least as inclined to watch during the day as in the evening. > > Thing is, i don’t give a flying fuck about college football, unlike a lot of Americans. I’ll bet that one of the reasons not to have a day game on Saturday is to avoid clashing with Northwestern at Ohio State, Miami at Notre Dame, and Baylor at Texas. And on Sunday, a night game only clashes with one NFL game, rather than five or six. I get all of my baseball on the radio, and I can’t even remember the last time I was able to listen to a Saturday postseason game, thanks to whichever asshat decided that the Washington State Cougars needed to play all their games during prime-time. The local sports station has the contracts to broadcast the Seattle Mariners, the MLB postseason, and Cougar football, and somehow Cougar football always takes priority. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/686 "2016-10-27T23:54:35Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > After 1984 the Cubs were threatened with having to play any future postseason games in St. Louis or Comiskey if they did not install lights. Could be that’s what you’re remembering. Ah, maybe that’s it. Hmm…Time to correct that bit of history in my head. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/687 "2016-10-28T00:06:46Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Ah, maybe that’s it. Hmm…Time to correct that bit of history in my head. Yeah, it looks like [it was a bit of a myth](http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2013/4/13/4219958/cubs-1984-playoff-myth-dallas-green) that spread, so I’m not the only one who was confused. But you are 100% correct. ---
**Author:** ![Ponch8](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponch8/32/9883_2.png) [@Ponch8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponch8)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/688 "2016-10-28T00:14:01Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > [my bolding] > > Nothing to do with lights, or with Wrigley. Through 1984\* the division series (“the playoffs” as they were known before the wild card) was a 2-3 series in which one team got the first two home games and the other team got the last three. Which team was which rotated, and in 1984 it was the western division champion, SD, that got the last three games at home. In 1980, same place in the rotation, the Phillies got the first two games at home and the Astros got the next three. So the schedule was pre-ordained–had the Cardinals, Expos, or Mets won the East that year, the Padres still would have had the last three games. > > \*Only because after 1984 they switched to a best of seven. > > After 1984 the Cubs were threatened with having to play any future postseason games in St. Louis or Comiskey if they did not install lights. Could be that’s what you’re remembering. Not to get this thread too off-track, but there was an inherent slight unfairness to the old system. One year the AL East champion could get home field advantage both in the ALCS and in the World Series. In the next year the NL West champ had that advantage, and it switched back and forth year to year. The AL West and NL East NEVER had that advantage for both rounds. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/689 "2016-10-28T00:55:13Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > When was the last time a team rode one starting pitcher to start Games 1, 4 and 7 of a World Series, as Cleveland is doing? Well, I looked it up, it was Curt Schilling with Arizona in 2001. CC Sabathia started Games 1 and 4 in 2009 and I guess he would he started Game 7, but it never happened. > > I wonder if maybe it might not be an idea managers should be more willing to use. Cardinals started Chris Carpenter three times in 2011, though that was games 1, 5, and 7 rather than 1-4-7. Still, in some sense the most recent precedent for Kluber. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/690 "2016-10-28T01:08:24Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > I remember an analysis from years ago about home field advantage that discussed “playing harder” at home when you’re being encouraged by the crowd. I don’t remember if it linked it to something physical like increased adrenaline. > > Anyway, their point was that in a game like football or basketball, extra effort is a positive. But in baseball, batting is all about precision so extra effort or adrenaline doesn’t help and might actually hurt. Adrenaline might help a pitcher throw harder, but probably with less accuracy. About the only time it helps is an outfielder chasing down a fly ball. My memory might be faulty, but I seem to remember it showing that batters actually did worse in game 7s at home, with the extra pressure of the crowd. > > I’ll have to see if I can track down the study. I just don’t buy it. Maybe in the grind of the regular season a home team tries harder. Then again maybe the visiting team is worn out from traveling. Too many variables to really isolate a home field advantage. But in the post-season, there’s really nothing special about NHL, NBA, or NFL over baseball. Both teams are presumably pumped up. There is nothing – nothing at all - that adequately explains a winning percentage differential between the sports. In the NBA, for instance, the team with the home field advantage is the team that has the better record, which might mean that they’re simply better to begin with. Here’s my point or here are my points: 1. Home field “advantage” is probably overstated in most sports, including baseball. In the end, you have two teams, they’re playing to win, and it’s about which team performs in the moment. 2. But if there is a home field advantage at all, baseball is the sport that actually has a home field advantage. Sure, go ahead and pull out all kinds of stats that “prove” something to the contrary – don’t give a shit. There are quantitative arguments and qualitative arguments. And to address something that was mentioned earlier: by “pitching to the ballpark” I never meant that pitchers can somehow come in with a different game plan depending on which park they’re throwing in – you misunderstood me. What I mean is that, pitchers have different ways to approach pitching. Some, like Kershaw, rely on the punch-out. Others rely on putting the ball in play. If you’re a pitcher that puts the ball in play and have a tendency to get fly ball outs, maybe you can get away with that if you play in a park that’s “pitcher friendly.” Move to a stadium you’re less familiar with and that same pitcher gives up three homers in two or three innings. People seemed to snicker when I talked about the lighting or the outfield depth. Talk with Matt Holliday about the lighting in Dodger Stadium and see if he thinks it’s a joke. Talk to Nelson Cruz about playing the wall in right field in Busch Stadium and see if he thinks familiarity with the home field is insignificant. Nobody would say in golf, for instance, that knowing how to play the course is an insignificant factor. Nobody would say that the type of surface in tennis is insignificant. Clearly some players adjust to different conditions better than others – that’s fact. Baseball, unlike football, basketball, or hockey, presents players with different conditions in the playing environment. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/691 "2016-10-28T01:12:08Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > I think it’s more concrete than that. I don’t have the math skills to prove it, so I’ll appeal to common sense: > > Let’s say 2 evenly matched teams enter the 9th inning tied. If the visitors score 1 run in the 9th, their odds of winning the game shoot up dramatically, but they’re still \< 100%. > > If the home team scores 1 run in the 9th, their odds of winning = 100%, because the game just ended. > > Advantage: home team. In theory, 9 frames is 9 frames. Just like in bowling or golf. Now in sport like, say, college football, there probably is an advantage to the team that has the last possession: Go for the tie or go for the win? How close to the goal line are we? They have the flexibility in applying scoring strategy. But in baseball, runs are scored one at a time. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/692 "2016-10-28T01:12:09Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > 1. But if there is a home field advantage at all, baseball is the sport that actually has a home field advantage. Sure, go ahead and pull out all kinds of stats that “prove” something to the contrary – don’t give a shit. There are quantitative arguments and qualitative arguments. Baseball doesn’t have many holes, but there is still an unwritten rule to stop digging. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/693 "2016-10-28T01:13:12Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > Cardinals started Chris Carpenter three times in 2011, though that was games 1, 5, and 7 rather than 1-4-7. Still, in some sense the most recent precedent for Kluber. Kluber really, really, really reminds me of Chris Carpenter. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/694 "2016-10-28T01:14:56Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Baseball doesn’t have many holes, but there is still an unwritten rule to stop digging. I’m not digging. If there’s a home field advantage, then there must be a reason behind the home field advantage. Showing me stats that purport to show home team winning percentages isn’t necessarily convincing evidence. That could have numerous possible explanations. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/695 "2016-10-28T01:14:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Sure, go ahead and pull out all kinds of stats that “prove” something to the contrary – don’t give a shit. Joe? Joe Morgan? Is that you Joe? > [@asahi](#): > > Baseball, unlike football, basketball, or hockey, presents players with different conditions in the playing environment. And yet it’s baseball where the home field advantage is the smallest. Go figure! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/696 "2016-10-28T01:16:03Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > Joe? Joe Morgan? Is that you Joe?And yet it’s baseball where the home field advantage is the smallest. Go figure! “Smallest” according to what exactly? Oh wait, a Nate Silver study.:rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/697 "2016-10-28T01:19:20Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If there’s a home field advantage, then there must be a reason behind the home field advantage. Showing me stats that purport to show home team winning percentages isn’t necessarily convincing evidence. That could have numerous possible explanations. I’m trying to parse this and failing. There are extensive stats that show teams win more at home, but this doesn’t demonstrate an advantage? What do you think an advantage is? What do you think the goal of the game is? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/698 "2016-10-28T01:24:31Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > I’m trying to parse this and failing. There are extensive stats that show teams win more at home, but this doesn’t demonstrate an advantage? What do you think an advantage is? What do you think the goal of the game is? Okay, so let’s walk through this: You guys are using the NBA as an example to show that the home field is more important in their sport than in baseball. **Let’s consider the fact that in the NBA Finals, the home team is the team that has the better record. There is also inter-league play.** Shall we accept that for starters? Let me break this down for you: It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the team that wins in the NBA playoffs is simply… **better**. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/699 "2016-10-28T01:29:04Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Showing me stats that purport to show home team winning percentages isn’t necessarily convincing evidence. That could have numerous possible explanations. And yet, just yesterday, you did exactly the same thing. You told me that you were right, and i was wrong, because 10 of the last 13 World Series have been won by the team with home field advantage. Here’s the quote, in case you forgot: > [@asahi](#): > > You’re wrong. > > As I said, home field team has won 10 of the last 13 WS. > > Game over, bro. So, stats and home field winning percentages matter when it’s a small sample size that supports your position, but they don’t matter when it’s a large sample size that contradicts your argument? You’re not digging; you’re going in circles. > [@asahi](#): > > You guys are using the NBA as an example to show that the home field is more important in their sport than in baseball. \*\*Let’s consider the fact that in the NBA Finals, the home team is the team that has the better record. \*\* This is also true in baseball in the Division Series and the League Championship Series. And, as previously demonstrated, in 20 years of DS and LCS play from 1995 to 2015, the home team has actually lost more series than it has won. And in individual games, the home team has a slight advantage which is about the same as the league-wide home field advantage during the regular season. And none of this even touches on whether that advantage is the product of park dimensions or lighting. ---
**Author:** ![Ponch8](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponch8/32/9883_2.png) [@Ponch8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponch8)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/700 "2016-10-28T01:57:24Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > You guys are using the NBA as an example to show that the home field is more important in their sport than in baseball. **Let’s consider the fact that in the NBA Finals, the home team is the team that has the better record. There is also inter-league play.** Shall we accept that for starters? > > Let me break this down for you: > > It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the team that wins in the NBA playoffs is simply… **better**. > [@mhendo](#): > > This is also true in baseball in the Division Series and the League Championship Series. Not necessarily…often the wild-card team will have a better record than the division winner that they are facing. The division winner, however, always gets home-field advantage over the wild-card team. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171.md?page=36)