# MLB. And here comes the Post Season! **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 29, 2016, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171 "2016-09-29T00:43:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/701 "2016-10-28T01:57:39Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the team that wins in the NBA playoffs is simply… **better**. Why are you focusing on the playoffs instead of the entire season? As I already pointed out, \*home advantage applies both to good teams and bad teams. \*Even bad teams have a higher winning percentage at home than they do on the road. How can they be the better team more often at home, but the worse team more often on the road? You really are ignoring most of the available evidence to continue to make your argument. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/702 "2016-10-28T02:06:24Z")
> [@Ponch8](#): > > Not necessarily…often the wild-card team will have a better record than the division winner that they are facing. The division winner, however, always gets home-field advantage over the wild-card team. This can be true in the LCS, if the Wild Card team wins the DS. It is never true in the Division Series, though, because the winner of the Wild Card game faces the team with the best record. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/703 "2016-10-28T02:08:01Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > And yet, just yesterday, you did exactly the same thing. You told me that you were right, and i was wrong, because 10 of the last 13 World Series have been won by the team with home field advantage. Here’s the quote, in case you forgot: > So, stats and home field winning percentages matter when it’s a small sample size that supports your position, but they don’t matter when it’s a large sample size that contradicts your argument? > > You’re not digging; you’re going in circles. No, I’m not. It’s just evidence that supports my argument, but I don’t really need that quantitative evidence. The logic itself will prove me right. > [@mhendo](#): > > This is also true in baseball in the Division Series and the League Championship Series. > > And, as previously demonstrated, in 20 years of DS and LCS play from 1995 to 2015, the home team has actually lost more series than it has won. And in individual games, the home team has a slight advantage which is about the same as the league-wide home field advantage during the regular season. > > And none of this even touches on whether that advantage is the product of park dimensions or lighting. There is less of an advantage when playing within the league. Teams face each other more frequently, with similar rules (DH or no DH). The advantage is reduced. If an advantage exists at all, it is in the World Series. Incidentally, someone asked why I’m only focusing on the WS – it’s because that’s where the advantage (assuming there is such a thing in sports) is almost certainly most pronounced. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/704 "2016-10-28T02:16:17Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Why are you focusing on the playoffs instead of the entire season? > > As I already pointed out, \*home advantage applies both to good teams and bad teams. \*Even bad teams have a higher winning percentage at home than they do on the road. How can they be the better team more often at home, but the worse team more often on the road? > > You really are ignoring most of the available evidence to continue to make your argument. There’s a reason I’m ignoring it. I think much of the conversation about home field “advantage” in sports is much ado about nothing. However, if it exists, then it exists in a sport like baseball. And the advantage – again if it truly exists at all – is even more significant in the World Series, where teams play in parks they’re not familiar with. Does home field advantage guarantee victory? No. That’s why you can pull out all the stats you want and it won’t convince me I’m wrong. It’s simple logic. If you’re playing a game of hide and seek in your own house, you know the hiding places that your “seeker” doesn’t. Play the game in his house and then it really depends on how good you are at finding the hiding places. I do believe that there is a home field advantage in baseball, especially as teams go deeper into the playoffs and play in opposing parks that are outside their division. That advantage isn’t overwhelming, though. If you’ve got a pitcher who can locate pitches well and overpower a lineup, then it doesn’t matter if you’re playing in a park that’s 300 down the lines or 350. An advantage is just that - an advantage. It’s not a guarantee that a team will win a particular game. That’s why I say quantitative data alone doesn’t really tell the story. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/705 "2016-10-28T02:20:39Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > You guys are using the NBA as an example to show that the home field is more important in their sport than in baseball. **Let’s consider the fact that in the NBA Finals, the home team is the team that has the better record. There is also inter-league play.** Shall we accept that for starters? > > Let me break this down for you: > > It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the team that wins in the NBA playoffs is simply… **better**. You’re the one who seems to think there’s something magical about playoffs. As has been mentioned several times, teams overall win more home games - more so in basketball and football, less so in baseball. Please explain how this does not demonstrate a home field/court advantage. Honestly, I don’t even know what your point is anymore. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/706 "2016-10-28T02:31:27Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > You’re the one who seems to think there’s something magical about playoffs. As has been mentioned several times, teams overall win more home games - more so in basketball and football, less so in baseball. Please explain how this does not demonstrate a home field/court advantage. > > Honestly, I don’t even know what your point is anymore. It could be that in the regular season traveling is a bigger drag on players in the NBA than in MLB. That would stand to reason given that basketball is a much more physically demanding sport than baseball. I really don’t know and don’t care. You tell me-- what is it about NBA home games that gives teams an advantage that is not seen in a baseball home game? “Adrenaline”? Don’t both teams have adrenaline? What’s magical about the playoffs is that, the deeper you go into the playoffs, the less familiar the two opposing teams are with each other and with the opposing ballpark. Again, a home field advantage doesn’t guarantee a victory - it just means that the home team knows things about the park the visitors don’t. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/707 "2016-10-28T02:43:57Z")
I’m sorry, as long as you continue to ignore statistics and actual win patterns within the leagues, it isn’t worth trying to argue with you. Your gut feel is worthless to me, and that seems to be all you have. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/708 "2016-10-28T03:14:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > That’s why you can pull out all the stats you want and it won’t convince me I’m wrong. It’s simple logic. Well, I can’t argue with this! ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/709 "2016-10-28T03:26:56Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > No. That’s why you can pull out all the stats you want and it won’t convince me I’m wrong. Well, then, if you’re not interested in facts it’s pointless discussing this with you. You can hold whatever opinion you want, but your opinion is contradicted by the factual evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/710 "2016-10-28T03:28:04Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > What’s magical Apparently, the source of your opinions. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/711 "2016-10-28T03:50:06Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > I’m sorry, as long as you continue to ignore statistics and actual win patterns within the leagues, it isn’t worth trying to argue with you. Your gut feel is worthless to me, and that seems to be all you have. Yep, the stats are pretty clear on this. Weird that anyone would so vehemently continue to argue the point. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/712 "2016-10-28T05:05:33Z")
And this is why they shouldn’t have off days during the World Series… ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/713 "2016-10-28T05:20:45Z")
So, what do you think about the DH? ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/714 "2016-10-28T13:19:20Z")
Ulf the Unwashed: > [@](#): > > Wait, what? Since 2003 (I assume you are including 2003 or else there are only 12), seven of the World Serieses have ended either 4-0 (like Sox over Houston 2005) or 4-2 (see Yankees-Phillies 2009). In four or six games there is no home field advantage–each team gets the same number of home games. What does “the home team” mean in this context? Not to mention series like last year, when the Royals won in 5 games…three of which were played at Citi Field. (Then again, they had a winning percentage of 1.000 in the games they played at home, and a winning percentage of .667 in the games they played on the road, so maybe that means the home field did mean something? I don’t know. Of course, one small series proves nothing meaningful.) ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/715 "2016-10-28T14:04:27Z")
Do we have any SABR members here? They should have access to good data on home field advantage. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/716 "2016-10-28T15:14:15Z")
All of a sudden, **asahi** ’s overreactions to the various polls in Elections makes perfect sense. Dude, you need to go take a class on statistics, esp. on statistical significance. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/717 "2016-10-28T16:03:00Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It could be that in the regular season traveling is a bigger drag on players in the NBA than in MLB. Which constitutes home “field” advantage. > [@](#): > > What’s magical about the playoffs is that, the deeper you go into the playoffs, the less familiar the two opposing teams are with each other and with the opposing ballpark. That is simply preposterous. I realize you’ve already said you don’t care about facts, but the teams are not made up of naïfs who’ve only ever played for their teams and never anywhere else. [QUOTE=asahi] It’s simple logic. [/QUOTE] No it obviously is not. The characteristics of a team sport are not explained by simple logical deduction. They are explained by an extraordinarily complicated set of interrelated stochastic systems including matters pertaining to physiology, psychology, physics, biology, and economics. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/718 "2016-10-28T16:04:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > “Smallest” according to what exactly? Oh wait, a Nate Silver study.:rolleyes: Can we keep election-year politics out of this, please? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/719 "2016-10-28T16:35:59Z")
Let’s look at some[real MLB rivalries](http://www.rivalrywatch.com/Home/Rivalries/MLB) where home field advantage should manifest itself the most. These are long-term rivalries with thousands of games in the database. **Cardinals vs. Cubs** For games in St. Louis, Cardinals win 53.7% For games in Chicago, Cubs win 56% **Yankees vs. Red Sox** Yankees win at home 58.4% Red Sox win at home 49.2% **Dodgers vs. Giants** Dodgers win at home 52.6% Giants win at home 54% **Tigers vs. White Sox** Detroit at home 54% Chisox at home 51.9% Over the long, long time (all of these matchups are more than a century) there might be a home field advantage, but in a seven-game series there are too many other variables. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/720 "2016-10-28T17:50:10Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > Do we have any SABR members here? They should have access to good data on home field advantage. I used to be a member of SABR, but there isn’t all that much info. We generally got articles publicized in the Baseball Research Journal or The National Pastime (which was more story based). But I don’t recall other hidden stats we had access too. To be honest, Fangraphs would likely be better. In the BRJ, there is this 1989 article, which is pleading for Home Field Advantage to be given to the better regular season team, since they tend to win anyways: > **[Twenty Years of Playoffs And the Home-Field Advantage](http://research.sabr.org/journals/twenty-years-of-playoffs-and-the-home-field-advantage)** > > Society for American Baseball Research - Research Journal Archives And then in 2003, the BRJ had an article on historical trends of HFA: (caution - large PDF) [https://sabr.box.net/shared/static/lazleg8tbbtdmb7ulfv5.pdf](https://sabr.box.net/shared/static/lazleg8tbbtdmb7ulfv5.pdf) It concluded that HFA was becoming less and less over time. In 2003, it was 0.07 meaning a home winning % of .535 (or 1.36 wins over 81 games) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171.md?page=37)