# MLB Hot Stove / Offseason 2018-2019

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [November 2, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890 "2018-11-02T14:28:02Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 14

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/261 "2019-01-04T14:00:20Z")

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> [@Zakalwe](#):
>
> Yes. And have 0 rings to show for it.

Which is unfortunate, but you can’t say the Series “stays out of reach” about a team that, you know, reached it. Twice.

The difference between a team that wins the World Series and the team that loses it is not a difference of a well run team versus a badly run team. There is no measurable difference in the quality of the management decisions because there is no decision you can make that will reliably GET you to the World Series but make much of a difference IN the World Series. If you get tothe World Series you’ve obviously put together a team that was good enough in the regular season to make the playoffs and good enough in the playoffs to win at least two rounds against top opposition, and you can’t make any trades in October, so all your real decisions are made and they clearly worked and you’re up against some other incredible well designed team and only one of you is allowed to win. Now, there is a measurable difference in the quality of decisions between, say the Dodgers and the Padres, or the Dodgers and the Blue Jays, or the Dodgers and the Orioles. All you can you is put together a really great team and hope things go your way; sports is too unpredictable for anything to be a sure bet.

You claimed the Dodgers lost the World Series because they had a “bad teammate.” I mean, that seems like a really unlikely claim to me. I know Manny Machado has a bad reputation but which game, specifically, did his being a bad teammate make them lose, and why didn’t that make them lose the NLDS, NLCS, or divisional playoff game? And who was the bad teammate in 2017?

It’s odd that people who criticize the management of an objectively excellent team. Try being a Reds fan if you want to know what a badly run team is all about.

> [@](#):
>
> They’re a good team. I just don’t see how adding Harper (if that is the player they’re going for) helps make them a _great_ team.

I specifically don’t know either, but my opinion about huge contracts to hitters is firm; I wouldn’t give a huge contract to ANY position player, ever, except maybe some generational talent like A-Rod or Mike Trout or Willie Mays and even then I’d be nervous about it. Bryce Harper’s record does not compare to players of that calibre.

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/262 "2019-01-04T14:52:21Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> Which is unfortunate, but you can’t say the Series “stays out of reach” about a team that, you know, reached it. Twice.

Pretty sure the intended meaning was “World Series _championship_”. :dubious:

> [@](#):
>
> there is no decision you can make that will reliably GET you to the World Series but make much of a difference IN the World Series.

Nothing is guaranteed in life, no, but there certainly are things you can do to improve your chances, and those things can be done better than the other guys.

> [@](#):
>
> you can’t make any trades in October

There are ways, involving the waiver wire, that do get used then.

> [@](#):
>
> It’s odd that people who criticize the management of an objectively excellent team.

It’s even odder that people saying “They’re very good but not the best, and if they want to win it all they have to get even better” can be accused of criticizing.

Machado’s comments about his disinterest in hustling should have made an impression on you. Certainly they did on his teammates. Just a thought.

> [@](#):
>
> I wouldn’t give a huge contract to ANY position player, ever, except maybe some generational talent like A-Rod or Mike Trout or Willie Mays and even then I’d be nervous about it. Bryce Harper’s record does not compare to players of that calibre.

So you’d have advised the Red Sox not to sign J.D. Martinez, right?

Maybe it’s a cultural thing, to think that being very good, and saving some money in the process (!) is good enough, even if somebody else keeps taking the trophies. I’m pretty sure most sports fans, at least here, think winning is even more important. The parades and trophies are pretty damn fun, too - but they don’t have any for good losers.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/263 "2019-01-04T16:19:14Z")

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> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Machado’s comments about his disinterest in hustling should have made an impression on you. Certainly they did on his teammates. Just a thought.

I don’t know what his teammates thought, nor do you.

> [@](#):
>
> So you’d have advised the Red Sox not to sign J.D. Martinez, right?

That’s right. Of course, Martinez worked out. Some huge contracts do; Martinez has worked out so far. I can think of a few other examples. Most, however, are total disasters. You are much likelier to find yourself with an Eric Hosmer or a Chris Davis than a JD Martinez.

> [@](#):
>
> Maybe it’s a cultural thing, to think that being very good, and saving some money in the process (!) is good enough, even if somebody else keeps taking the trophies.

Who believes that?

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**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/264 "2019-01-04T16:36:00Z")

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> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> If you have another way to define _best_, one that dismisses the actual results, then let’s have it. There’s a reason “Second place is first loser” is a cliche - because it’s true.
> 
> The Dodgers need a deeper pitching staff more than anything else. But who doesn’t?

How can anyone argue with such a sophisticated analysis?:dubious:

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**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/265 "2019-01-04T17:13:53Z")

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The Tampa Bay Rays will be filling up a much higher percentage of their seats in 2019.

Not by attracting more fans, though - they’re closing off the upper deck to seating.

> **[How low can you go: Rays close off upper deck](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25683771/tampa-bay-rays-eliminate-upper-deck-seating-reduce-capacity-25000)**
>
> The Rays will no longer seat fans in the upper deck of Tropicana Field, which will reduce capacity to approximately 25,000 to 26,000 -- about 10,000 smaller than any other stadium in the majors.

If they keep attendance at the 2018 level, their ballpark will be more than half full for most games!

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/266 "2019-01-04T18:04:26Z")

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> [@Colibri](#):
>
> How can anyone argue with such a sophisticated analysis?:dubious:

Go ahead. You’re among friends.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/267 "2019-01-04T18:07:01Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> I don’t know what his teammates thought, nor do you.

But you do acknowledge the effect had to be negative, don’t you?

> [@](#):
>
> That’s right.

Fortunately, my team’s front office does not have a loser’s mentality. That used to be true but it’s long in the past.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/268 "2019-01-04T20:00:32Z")

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> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> But you do acknowledge the effect had to be negative, don’t you?

I’ve never met the guy and have no idea. It might have been, but only a very, very stupid person would claim to know unless they had firsthand knowledge.

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**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2019, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/269 "2019-01-06T14:41:20Z")

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Yankees bring back [Zach Britton](http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25693480/zach-britton-new-york-yankees-agree-three-year-deal) for 3 years, $39 million with options.

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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2019, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/270 "2019-01-06T14:54:13Z")

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> [@Superdude](#):
>
> Yankees bring back [Zach Britton](http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25693480/zach-britton-new-york-yankees-agree-three-year-deal) for 3 years, $39 million with options.

I’m a little surprised, I wonder if this is the last major move or if there are no budget considerations this year?

As a baseball move it is good, really helps the bullpen stay great. This puts the Yanks [just over the Competitive Balance Tax](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ai3Wo4UVZbUFtEEOnVEUwBgh2H45wwNe4nd6bXPAvRQ/pubhtml).

They can trade Gray still to get under or of course trade Ellsbury eating nearly all of his contract but a few million for the next 2 years. Or they can ignore the Balance and pay the luxury tax this year.

If they sign Machado they jump right up to the next penalty level.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2019, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/271 "2019-01-06T17:45:51Z")

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That also pretty well defines Kimbrel’s contract with the Red Sox, when he eventually capitulates and signs it.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2019, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/272 "2019-01-06T19:41:04Z")

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Britton isn’t the superpitcher he used to be, but the Yankees can afford it. Craig Kimbrel is a way better pitcher - I wonder if this might bump up his expected return, but of course even if an infferior pitcher is getting $13 million a year, that doesn’t mean there are even enough teams capable of affording it that he could find a better deal. “Market value” is kind of meaningless at the top end because there may not be a “market.”

Speaking of Craig Kimbrel, at this point in his career, Kimbrel’s remarkably similar to Mariano Rivera - like, pretty much bang on. Now, of course, what distinguishes Mo is that he continued doing to the same thing year after year until he was 68 years old or whatever it was. Still, it’s a hell of a comparison.

In looking that up I saw, which I’d completely forgotten, that Kimbrel pitched for the Padres for a season in between Atlanta and Boston. I wonder if all the photos of that have been scrubbed.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hellestal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3ab097/32.png) [@Hellestal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hellestal)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/273 "2019-01-07T17:29:12Z")

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> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> If you have another way to define _best_…

I would guess most people would acknowledge that both skill and luck can play a roll in determining the winner of a sporting competition.

For the people able to recognize that luck shows up in sports – that luck is, in fact, present in non-zero quantities – it makes a certain amount of sense to define “best” as the skill proportion of the outcome, rather than the luck proportion, or the sum of the two together.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\
**Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/274 "2019-01-08T18:09:32Z")

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Please help settle this discussion I had last night with a few bar buddies. Let’s say that Joe Maddon channels his inner Connie Mack and shows up to manage a game wearing a suit and a tie, is that allowed? I know the NFL requires the coaching staff to always wear licensed apparel but I don’t think MLB has the same rule. However, I do notice that all the managers and coaches wear playoff themed apparel during the playoffs, is this required or just done to help promote playoff apparel sales?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/275 "2019-01-08T18:52:51Z")

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He could do that, sure. There is no specific rule against it; you will sometimes hear people say there’s a rule, or that there is a specific rule that managers and coaches must wear uniforms to step onto the field, but that is not true. The base coaches must be in uniform but no league rule says managers must be in uniform.

They wear uniforms purely out of tradition and the prevailing culture of the sport.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\
**Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/276 "2019-01-11T01:02:32Z")

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The Mets added a bunch of players through trades and signings this week (Jed Lowrie and Luis Avalan today).

The really bizarre thing is that with all the deals they made this years (except for Cano), there was no advance speculation or rumors that anything was happening. The first time anyone knew anything was happening was when the team announced the deal. Indeed, all the advance speculation and rumors all turned out to be untrue (other than Grandal, who turned down the team’s offer).

I can’t remember a time since the Internet came along that so many transactions were complete surprises.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/277 "2019-01-11T15:58:28Z")

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CC Sabathia got an all clear to resume baseball activities and fully expected to be the Yanks 5th man in the rotation this season. Keeping in mind, Yanks are still expecting young lefty Montgomery back part way through the year, the Gray talks are heating back up again.

> [@Superdude](#):
>
> Yankees expected to sign [Machado](https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBRxXMf?m=en-us&ocid=News).

Many reports the Yanks are all but out of the Machado sweepstakes now.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\
**Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/278 "2019-01-11T18:08:02Z")

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Especially since they just signed DJ Lemahieu:

> **[Sources: Yanks, LeMahieu agree to 2-year deal](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25736839/dj-lemahieu-reaches-deal-new-york-yankees)**
>
> After seven seasons in Colorado, DJ LeMahieu is heading to the American League after reaching an agreement on a two-year, $24 million contract with the Yankees, sources told ESPN.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/279 "2019-01-12T00:34:11Z")

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Excellent defender, but acquiring a Rockie with a road OPS of .673 doesn’t send the heart aflutter.

Out of the Machado sweepstakes? Probably. Some think that with LeMahieu on board, Cashman will now trade for the Klubot in a package headed by Andujar and simultaneously nail down a Manny deal. Ah, dreamers.

I’m pretty happy with the team as it’s now constituted. I expect a rebound season from Sanchez, and for first base to be more productive, so I’m not worried about offense. Sure, another top starter would be great but every team needs that. Another arm for the super-bullpen and I’d call it a very successful offseason.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/280 "2019-01-12T12:51:02Z")

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DJ Lemahieu

> [@](#):
>
> ```auto
> 
> Split	G	GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	**BA	** OBP	SLG	OPS	TB		
> Home	482	449	1762	314	582	100	22	21	201	166	263	**.330**.387	.448	.835	789		
> Away	473	433	1683	187	444	63	9	28	148	112	314	**.264**.311	.362	.673	609		
> 
> ```

Don’t like the Home & Away Splits at all.

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