# MLB Hot Stove / Offseason 2018-2019 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 2, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890 "2018-11-02T14:28:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![BwanaBob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bwanabob/32/2985_2.png) [@BwanaBob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BwanaBob)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/461 "2019-03-01T15:59:22Z")
Harper / Boras must not believe that in 10 years that Bryce couldn’t command $10M a year (which would be a bargain in 2029 dollars) for 3 years. Say he’s iffy by then, he’d probably still command $12M/yr. I think he would end up ahead after 13 years if he took the 300M/10 and then took offers for 3 years in 2029. What happens if he gets in some horrific accident and can’t play ever again? Do the Phillies still have to pay for all that time and $? ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/462 "2019-03-01T16:18:37Z")
Major League contracts are guaranteed, so in that instance, chances are that Philadelphia would be on the hook for the whole thing. I’m sure that a large part would be recouped through an insurance policy that they’ll take out on him. Unless something’s changed due to a change in the CBA. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/463 "2019-03-01T16:48:21Z")
Slate looks at [Harper’s future](https://slate.com/culture/2019/03/bryce-harper-philadelphia-phillies-contract.html). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/464 "2019-03-01T19:24:50Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > Friend says, you think he’ll really play in Philly for 13 years? I say, don’t know but pretty sure they’ll be paying him for 13 years. Not trading that contract ever. A-Rod got traded, as did Stanton, both of which were arguably more onerous contracts. If in 3 years the Phillies suck but Harper is way better, sure, some big market team might make an offer. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/465 "2019-03-01T20:07:18Z")
I’m glad we didn’t go 13 (13!) years of mega contract. Bound to bite the Phills in the butt, just like Pujols sank the Angels. Or some of the Giants recent spending… We’re good, especially for outfielders, for chrissake. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/466 "2019-03-01T20:08:50Z")
> [@BwanaBob](#): > > Harper / Boras must not believe that in 10 years that Bryce couldn’t command $10M a year (which would be a bargain in 2029 dollars) for 3 years. Say he’s iffy by then, he’d probably still command $12M/yr. I think he would end up ahead after 13 years if he took the 300M/10 and then took offers for 3 years in 2029. > > What happens if he gets in some horrific accident and can’t play ever again? Do the Phillies still have to pay for all that time and $? Pretty sure there will be an insurance policy to cover a large portion, in that event. If he just declines with age, though… ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/467 "2019-03-01T20:57:23Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > I’m glad we didn’t go 13 (13!) years of mega contract. Strictly in terms of length, how unprecedented is this? Is this anywhere near the longest contract ever offered to a Major Leaguer? ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/468 "2019-03-01T21:28:18Z")
> [@BwanaBob](#): > > What happens if he gets in some horrific accident and can’t play ever again? Do the Phillies still have to pay for all that time and $? Not entirely clear. There is still an ongoing legal fight over Jose Fernandez’s contract. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/469 "2019-03-01T23:36:47Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > Strictly in terms of length, how unprecedented is this? Is this anywhere near the longest contract ever offered to a Major Leaguer? Yes, prior record was 10 years, shared by several. Of course, it’s also a matter of his age at signing -26 - he’s probably at or near his peak (he’s gonna love hitting in this park, though). Hard to know when the inevitable erosions of skills becomes noticeable - I generally expect to see problems by about age 33-35. He’s likely to be a significantly diminishing ballplayer the last 4+ years of his contract. If you look at Pujols for a quick and dirty comparison, the first 11 years of his career (Cardinals), he never hit less than 30 hr/year. He signed with the Angels when he was about 32, and he managed 30+ dingers for the Angels 3 out of 7 years, and has hit about .240 both of the past 2 years. He’s got 3 years left on his 10-year contract at 24 mil per year. I’d say the Angels got something close to value for about half of that 10-year contract. And, I would add, my opinion only, Harper’s never gonna have the career Pujols has. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/470 "2019-03-02T19:02:56Z")
If Pujols had signed at 26, though, that contract would have been okay. From his age 26 through 31 seasons Pujols was unquestionably the greatest player in the major leagues, and he led his team to two World Series wins. A contract that covered those years plus seven more wouldn’t look THAT bad; the last seven year aren’t great, but if you got those first six, you made out alright. The challenge, of course, is Harper being that great from ages 26 through 31 which, as it happens, I do not believe he will be. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/471 "2019-03-02T21:33:30Z")
They’re saying Kahnle was touching 97 mph on Friday. That is pretty good news for the Yanks. The bullpen could be something really special this year. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2019, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/472 "2019-03-04T16:03:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > A-Rod got traded, as did Stanton, both of which were arguably more onerous contracts. > > If in 3 years the Phillies suck but Harper is way better, sure, some big market team might make an offer. Well, Ok. Texas was able to trade ARod after 3 straight seasons of WAR \> 8. Stanton was traded one year into a contract because of ownership change. Also following an MVP season. I don’t think the Phillies will unload Harper after one year and I don’t think he’ll put up ARod numbers for the next 3 years while the team can’t make the playoffs. I think it’s much more likely that in 3 years this is going to be an ugly, untradeable contract. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/473 "2019-03-04T16:14:56Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If Pujols had signed at 26, though, that contract would have been okay. From his age 26 through 31 seasons Pujols was unquestionably the greatest player in the major leagues, and he led his team to two World Series wins. A contract that covered those years plus seven more wouldn’t look THAT bad; the last seven year aren’t great, but if you got those first six, you made out alright. > > The challenge, of course, is Harper being that great from ages 26 through 31 which, as it happens, I do not believe he will be. Pujols did sign a contract extension with the Cardinals when he was that young. It ended up being one of the most team friendly contracts ever signed. I don’t think Harper has to match Pujols levels to be worth the contract. $25 million is just not that much money in today’s game. It is what the Phillies are paying Arrieta for instance. If Harper is a 3-4 win player he earns that contract. So more all-star than MVP candidate, which I think he is very much capable of doing. Perhaps a little bit more to make for the inevitable decline towards the back end of the deall. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/474 "2019-03-06T19:01:06Z")
The Rangers have acquired outfielder “Zack Granite”. What’s his real name when he isn’t making pornos? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2019, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/475 "2019-03-07T01:34:23Z")
“Fausto Carmona” ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2019, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/476 "2019-03-07T02:25:00Z")
Chest Rockwell. It’s a great name. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2019, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/477 "2019-03-07T23:49:24Z")
Tom Seaver has been diagnosed with dementia. He will be completely retiring from public life. Sad way to go for one of the all time greats. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/478 "2019-03-08T20:41:47Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > $25 million is just not that much money in today’s game. It is what the Phillies are paying Arrieta for instance. If Harper is a 3-4 win player he earns that contract. So more all-star than MVP candidate, which I think he is very much capable of doing. This. It’s very likely that the upcoming CBA revamp is going to drive contracts much higher. And with no opt-out clause, the Phillies have locked in a relatively team-friendly deal. There’s no way Harper earns his $22m when he’s 38, but none of these contracts are designed to get value out of their elder statesmen - they’re paying for production early in the contract in the hopes of a ring (or two). I’m sure the owners will take the opportunity hang an albatross around the contract if they aren’t winning pennants in the next 3 years, but they’ll be lying their asses off, because they’ll make plenty of money off of this deal. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2019, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/479 "2019-03-09T16:51:56Z")
It could be bad for them, because Harper has had such a weird career - if he turns into late-career Adam Dunn, which is at the low end of the possible outcomes, they’ll regret it but if he comes back up to his second-best season and maintains that for a while, it’s a great deal for them. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2019, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890/480 "2019-03-09T23:15:30Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > It could be bad for them, because Harper has had such a weird career - if he turns into late-career Adam Dunn, which is at the low end of the possible outcomes, they’ll regret it but if he comes back up to his second-best season and maintains that for a while, it’s a great deal for them. I think this is true. It is possible that Harper had really early peak, sometimes great players do. There is also some question whether his terrible defensive year last year is more predicitive than his solid defense before. He also could be a prenenial MVP candidate who was holding himself back a bit to ensure a monster payday. I think the phillies are paying at about maybe 30th percentile of the possible career paths, which is why I think it is a good risk. The lack of opt out also helps a ton with the potential upside. Fun fact, when the Phillies are done paying Harper, the Mets will still be paying Bobby Bonilla. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hot-stove-offseason-2018-2019/823890.md?page=25)