# MLB Hotstove: 2014-2015 Offseason **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2014, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019 "2014-10-30T15:58:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/81 "2014-12-11T15:46:09Z")
Well, the important thing is that the Padres also helped us out by taking $31 million to complete the deal. We must have really needed to unload Kemp badly :smack: Oh, also, Weiland is coming back from TJ surgery. (Admittedly pretty common these days…) Reading up on Grandahl, one of the things that made him expendable was that the pitchers didn’t prefer pitching to him, compared with the other kid. Great. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/82 "2014-12-11T15:48:34Z")
This is the end of Fangraphs’ article on the Kemp deal: > **[Padres Acquire Matt Kemp](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/padres-acquire-matt-kemp/)** > > After a couple of weeks of rumors, the Padres have reportedly come to terms with the Dodgers on a deal that will bring Matt Kemp to San Diego. Matt Kemp is due $107 million over the next five years… > [@](#): > > **2015 Steamer Projections** > > Matt Kemp: 555 PA, 128 wRC+, +2.1 WAR > Yasmani Grandal: 393 PA, 111 wRC+, +1.5 WAR > Joe Wieland: ? IP, 3.96 ERA, 0.0 WAR > > I’ll have a full write-up on this soon, but suffice it to say that I love this trade for the Dodgers and don’t really get it at all for the Padres. They get a big right-handed slugger, but I’m not sure they got any better, and they spent $75 million for the right to be differently bad. It appears that Kemp may be being overrated on past successes. Grandal seems to be a fantastic pitch framer in addition. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/83 "2014-12-11T15:51:44Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > We’ll see about Gordon. thing is, Kendricks is only a one-season rental as well. Sure, but it isn’t like the Dodgers lack the money to extend him. > [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > As far as the San Diego trade, we get Grandal, a .245 hitter with some pop, coming off of knee surgery and a suspension for PEDS, who is, what, going to replace AJ Ellis? We get Weiland, whose combined ERA the past 2 yrs, pitching at _PETCO_, is about 6.00. We get some AA kid, who knows about him. For **Kemp.** > I’m gonna need some more convincing about that one. > Rollins makes sense to me, for what that’s worth. Well we can start with $75 million the Dodgers are saving. You could make a reasonable argument that this is a good trade for the Dodgers even if they got nothing back from the Padres. Kemp is not the player he was. He can still hit, but has trouble staying healthy and is a poor defender. You have to be an awfully good hitter to be worth that kind of money, if you don’t provide any other value. The Dodgers did get stuff back though. Grandel is an above avg hitter for a catcher and is excellent at framing. He is also still young and catchers tend to develop later than other positions. Weiland has been spent the last couple years recovering from arm injuries, so I wouldn’t worry too much about the numbers. He has talent, but obviously there are question marks. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/84 "2014-12-11T16:04:11Z")
We’ll have to see if Grandal is an ‘above-average hitter’ without extra testosterone running through his body. And the only way we find out is by sitting AJ. I would dispute Kemp being a ‘below average’ defender, and the last half of the season presented plenty of reason to suspect he was again approaching the player he was. I don’t know much about Weiland, but what I can see is distinctly underwhelming. I mean, if you can’t post an ERA under 6.00 at _Petco_? ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/85 "2014-12-11T16:11:41Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > This is the end of Fangraphs’ article on the Kemp deal: > > [Padres Acquire Matt Kemp | FanGraphs Baseball](http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/padres-acquire-matt-kemp/) > It appears that Kemp may be being overrated on past successes. Grandal seems to be a fantastic pitch framer in addition. As that article indicates, the projection is low because their metrics don’t look kindly at his defense. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/86 "2014-12-11T16:20:56Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > They are saying the Tigers gave up Porcello for Cespedes. > Gotta think about how I feel on that one for a minute, and depends if there are other pieces involved, or straight-up. The other pieces going to DET are Alex Wilson (righty generic middle reliever type that was a DFA candidate if the Sox needed room on the 40-man) and Gabe Speier (lower level lefty coming back from injury, profiles as a guy who might make the majors as a reliever someday). So it’s effectively straight-up. I love the deal for the Sox - they turn the least valuable part of an overcrowded outfield into exactly what they need, a solid #3 type pitcher. It at least makes sense for Detroit, though I don’t think I’d be really enthusiastic about it as a fan. Even from only half a season, it was fun as hell to watch Cespedes crush baseballs, but unless he can get his OBP back up to .330 he isn’t really a great guy to have. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/87 "2014-12-11T16:24:12Z")
I’m not really a stats guy, but here is another ‘stats opinion’ of the question of Kemp’s fielding that you might enjoy: > **[Matt Kemp’s CF Defense Is Better Than You Think](https://www.dodgersbeat.com/matt-kemps-cf-defense-is-better-than-you-think/)** > > By D.K. Robinson Don Mattingly’s decision to abruptly move Matt Kemp from CF to LF and replace him with a platoon of Andre Ethier and Scott VanSlyke may well go down in history as one of the And, he did, after all, win 2 Gold Gloves in center not all that long ago… ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/88 "2014-12-11T16:24:30Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > I would dispute Kemp being a ‘below average’ defender. You can dispute it all you like, but basically every advanced calculation has him as a below-average center fielder. > [@John\_DiFool](#): > > As that article indicates, the projection is low because their metrics don’t look kindly at his defense. Right, but “look kindly” suggests that it’s merely a subjective evaluation; it’s not. While defense is harder to measure than offense, it can be measured in important ways, and basically every advanced metric of defensive capability has Kemp as a pretty crappy fielder by MLB standards. Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs all have Kemp as a below-average fielder for each of his past five seasons. For BR and FG, his fielding in 2014 was almost poor enough to cancel out his hitting. Probably not a guy Padres fans should be looking forward to watching run around the expansive outfield of Petco Park. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/89 "2014-12-11T16:43:48Z")
The Tigers are now getting Alfredo Simon from the Reds to fill Porcello’s slot in the rotation. They give up Eugenio Suarez and Jonathan Crawford. In more shocking news, the Twitters say that Mat Latos may be on his way to the Marlins. Things are fast and furious on the pitching market now that Lester is resolved. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/90 "2014-12-11T16:52:56Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > I’m not really a stats guy, but here is another ‘stats opinion’ of the question of Kemp’s fielding that you might enjoy: > [Matt Kemp’s CF Defense Is Better Than You Think – DodgersBeat](http://www.dodgersbeat.com/matt-kemps-cf-defense-is-better-than-you-think/) > And, he did, after all, win 2 Gold Gloves in center not all that long ago… You do realize that the conclusion of the article is that Kemp is not as bad as most defensive metrics suggest and that he is merely a below average centerfielder? The guy isn’t making a case that Kemp is a decent fielder, he’s just saying he’s less bad than others think… of course he does that by creating a new statistic that no one else uses (P150) while trying to discredit the one that the vast majority of stat folks use as at least part of their defensive metrics (UZR), but you know ;). ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/91 "2014-12-11T16:53:20Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > We’ll have to see if Grandal is an ‘above-average hitter’ without extra testosterone running through his body. And the only way we find out is by sitting AJ. I would dispute Kemp being a ‘below average’ defender, and the last half of the season presented plenty of reason to suspect he was again approaching the player he was. I don’t know much about Weiland, but what I can see is distinctly underwhelming. I mean, if you can’t post an ERA under 6.00 at _Petco_? Well, Grandal was fine coming back after his suspension last year, so I don’t see a reason to be particularly concerned. Wieland has thrown 40 innings in the majors, 11 in the last two years. The fact that his ERA was over 7:00 in those 11 innings is about as meaningless as you can get. And lets just say that the numbers do not agree with you on Kemp’s defense. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/92 "2014-12-11T17:23:29Z")
If the Dodgers end up with Hamels after all is said and done, I will be happy. I’ll still see Kemp regularly, since we tend to go to more Padres games than Dodger games these days, and it was either him or Ethier. In fact, I wouldn’t count on Ethier being around too much longer if they can deal for another solid middle reliever. I’ll miss watching Dee Gordon, but not that much. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/93 "2014-12-11T17:32:45Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Well, Grandal was fine coming back after his suspension last year, so I don’t see a reason to be particularly concerned. Wieland has thrown 40 innings in the majors, 11 in the last two years. The fact that his ERA was over 7:00 in those 11 innings is about as meaningless as you can get. And lets just say that the numbers do not agree with you on Kemp’s defense. Yeah, Grandal hit a sparkling .225 last year. I hope he’s really really good at framing pitches, because he don’t throw out basestealers too good (he caught 7 basestealers out of 49 last year). I agree that Weiland’s #s don’t mean much, but then again, his numbers are down because he’s had an injury problem. Kemp’s two Gold gloves are not exactly meaningless, you know they are voted by his peers, right? (And again, I’ll admit I’m not much of a stats geek, especially defensive stats, which commonly begin by some 3rd party making a subjective judgement about whether a play should have been made, then manufacturing stats from that basis.) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/94 "2014-12-11T18:21:27Z")
The Red Sox bungled the Lester deal, but are trying to cover for it with Wade Miley, Justin Masterson, and now Rick Porcello, and not at the cost of anybody they’ll really miss (Cespedes wanted out anyway). You win with quality, not quantity, but you need the back end of the rotation too. Now, for an ace or two … How much will Hamels, Zimmerman, or Cueto cost? Better not be Betts. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/95 "2014-12-11T19:19:17Z")
I can quite understand the Dodgers dealing Kemp, who is badly overpaid and one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. I don’t precisely understand the Padres wanting him, inasmuch as San Diego is a terrible place for a power hitter who has to play the field. Rollins is a nice pickup for LA, too. He can still play D, hits okay, doesn’t make a lot of money. Kemp would be personally well served if someone would trade him to an AL team that needs a guy to just take over DH every day. To be honest I’d love the Blue Jays to pick him up, take away his globe and say “Go hit home runs.” He’d do terrific. Now, the Cespedes-for-Porcello trade, that’s just terrific for Boston. Best trade of the offseason by a mile. Porcello’s a 25-year-old starter with a proven track record, a healthy arm, and every statistical indicator is positive. I’d kill to have Rick Porcello. [QUOTE=Truman Burbank] Kemp’s two Gold gloves are not exactly meaningless, you know they are voted by his peers, right? [/QUOTE] No, they’re 75% voted on by managers and coaches, plus 25% weight is given to analysis by SABR. As to the applicability of Kemp’s Gold Gloves: 1. That was then and this is now. Just because Kemp was OK with the glove before doesn’t mean he is now. He is visibly not as mobile as he once was, which is why he also doesn’t steal bases anymore. 2. I would again point out that back when there was no input by SABR, the managers and coaches once gave a Gold Glove to a DH. I’m not sure they pay a lot of attention to their ballots. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/96 "2014-12-11T22:43:05Z")
Well, I would say managers and coaches see more games, and watch them more closely, than anybody else. Ankles are tricky things, so I’m not sure if his mobility will improve further, but I think it is certainly possible that it will, either as the ankle becomes more trustworthy or he just finally relaxes enough to push it. Again, nobody in baseball hit better than he did after the All-Star break last year, and I just don’t think we got much for him. Still willing to wait to see what other dominos fall, and it just may be there wasn’t any market for CC or Dre. ---
**Author:** ![Club\_33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@Club\_33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Club_33)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/97 "2014-12-19T01:43:38Z")
Interesting turn of events in the Kemp trade. He was [diagnosed with arthritis of both hips](http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/12047823/los-angeles-dodgers-trade-matt-kemp-limbo-san-diego-padres-review-medical-information), putting this trade and a number of related trades in jeopardy. Wow. ---
**Author:** ![Club\_33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@Club\_33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Club_33)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/98 "2014-12-19T07:29:28Z")
Just disregard that last post. Trade was finalized today. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/99 "2014-12-19T17:20:13Z")
I predict that sometime during the 2015 season, I will call these trades the smartest thing the Dodgers have ever done. I also predict that sometime during the 2015 season, I will call these trades proof that the owners are idiots. Pick 'em as to what order these are in, and how often they repeat. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019/100 "2014-12-19T18:36:06Z")
Wouldn’t it be cheaper for the Padres to move the fences in than to pay all those sluggers? A list which doesn’t include Will Middlebrooks, whom they’re about to get in exchange for some backup catcher. Boston comes out way ahead on that one. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-2014-2015-offseason/703019.md?page=6)