# MLB Hotstove, or the 2024 Ohtani sweepstakes

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Tags:** baseball-mlb\
**Created:** [November 2, 2023, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492 "2023-11-02T17:48:39Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 11

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**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/201 "2024-01-13T17:35:17Z")

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Orioles still happy to watch and wait. Rumored to be interested in James Paxton.

People keep talking about trading for Cease, but the White Sox are apparently asking the moon for him, and will probably continue dangling him as long as possible hoping someone will get desperate. That is not going to be Baltimore.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/202 "2024-01-13T18:06:11Z")

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> [@kenobi\_65](#):
>
> > [@RickJay](#):
> >
> > Unless you are a football team, in which case I would very much agree an offensive coordinator is a better asset than a third baseman.
> 
> Perhaps the plan is for Mattingly to play third. 😉

He’s done it. I think for one game the Yankees had a left handed third baseman.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/203 "2024-01-13T18:08:02Z")

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[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/grCjchHFJyA/maxresdefault.jpg "NYY@SEA: Mattingly turns two playing third base") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grCjchHFJyA)

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**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/204 "2024-01-13T18:14:13Z")

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> [@Loach](#):
>
> He’s done it. I think for one game the Yankees had a left handed third baseman.

He played 2nd base in protest for the resumption of the Pine Tar Game. One of a very small handful of times there’s been a lefty 2B in the MLB.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/205 "2024-01-13T18:17:09Z")

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> [@DCnDC](#):
>
> Orioles still happy to watch and wait. Rumored to be interested in James Paxton.
> 
> People keep talking about trading for Cease, but the White Sox are apparently asking the moon for him, and will probably continue dangling him as long as possible hoping someone will get desperate. That is not going to be Baltimore.

I saw they are asking for the top two prospects. That’s ridiculous. He’s not Cy Young. That puts the Yankees out too. They gave up the prospects they were willing to get rid of getting Soto.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/206 "2024-01-13T18:30:24Z")

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> [@Loach](#):
>
> He’s not Cy Young.

Cease did finish second in Cy Young voting in 2022, but he was not nearly as good last year (4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP), nor had he been anything nearly as good prior to 2022, which suggests that he caught lightning in a bottle in '22, and that he probably has just regressed to his mean.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/207 "2024-01-13T18:33:12Z")

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On a good rotation he would probably be a solid starter. He’s not coming in to be your ace. Worth having but not worth selling the future for.

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**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/208 "2024-01-13T21:59:57Z")

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It’s possible that Cease was the victim of bad luck and/or bad fielding, or maybe he was just more hittable in 2023. HIs FIP was 3.72 and BAbip against was .331, well above his career mark of.298.

I’m pleased with the Stroman acquisition and I’d love to get Cease, but I don’t want to give up on Spencer Jones yet. His combo of power and speed is too enticing.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/209 "2024-01-13T22:36:23Z")

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> [@BlankSlate](#):
>
> It’s possible that Cease was the victim of bad luck and/or bad fielding, or maybe he was just more hittable in 2023.

The Sox were at or near the bottom of MLB in most of the team fielding measures in 2023, though they were similarly lousy at fielding in 2022. (That said, it’s possible that Cease, himself, got better defensive support in his starts in '22 than he did in '23.)

> [@BlankSlate](#):
>
> HIs FIP was 3.72 and BAbip against was .331, well above his career mark of.298.

Though, those numbers aren’t terribly out of line with his performance in 2021 (FIP 3.41, BAbip .310). I still think that he simply had a career year in 2022.

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**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\
**Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/210 "2024-01-22T22:01:39Z")

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The Royals moving forward with plans for their new stadium.

> <https://twitter.com/royals/status/1749545076383007187?s=46&t=KEWgwenxgQmz-pLDK_DMFQ>

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**Author:** ![nightshadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/7ba0ec/32.png) [@nightshadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nightshadea)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/211 "2024-01-23T07:49:32Z")

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spring training’s what a month away ? im ready for it …

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/212 "2024-01-23T15:26:09Z")

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So what’s the biggest surprise so far? Snell still being on the market? Everyone always needs pitching. Apparently he’s asking too much. The Yankees are the only ones who made an offer.

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**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/213 "2024-01-23T18:29:25Z")

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Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, and Snell are all Scott Boras clients. He’ll hold out everyone until Opening Day and beyond if he thinks it will get him an extra dime.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/214 "2024-01-23T20:56:51Z")

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True but so far Snell has one offer on the table which he turned down.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/215 "2024-01-25T03:03:30Z")

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Domingo Germán has completed alcohol treatment and apparently has offers from two teams with talks continuing.

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**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\
**Post date:** [January 27, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/216 "2024-01-27T17:26:17Z")

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The Cubs have signed [Hector Neris](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/cubs-sign-hector-neris.html) to a 1-year, $9 million deal.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [January 27, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/217 "2024-01-27T19:31:52Z")

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There are some downsides but it’s pretty much a steal. He had a good season last year. Pitchers tend to age like milk so it’s possible at 35 he could have a sharp drop off but that’s relatively cheap. It is incentive heavy so not so cheap if he comes through.

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**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\
**Post date:** [January 27, 2024, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/218 "2024-01-27T20:15:59Z")

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Neris is a career 3+ ERA reliever who was lucky last season, evidenced by his 4.1 BB9 (3.83 FIP.) His BAbip was a career low .222. Not much risk, but the Cubs shouldn’t expect a lockdown closer, or even a reliable setup man.

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**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\
**Post date:** [January 27, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/219 "2024-01-27T22:15:07Z")

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Neris had a monster season last year, and his value is that he’s an absolute workhorse. He’s been deployed in more than a third of his team’s games every season for like a decade. For a team that needs bullpen depth, he’s a bargain.

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**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-hotstove-or-the-2024-ohtani-sweepstakes/992492/220 "2024-01-28T00:08:35Z")

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Eh? 10 year career, 540.1 innings. Not seeing anything unusual in those numbers. In fact, among relievers, they’re pedestrian.

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