Monty Hall Problem

[Malacandra]

CurtC is quite right, of course, which is why I never play three-card monte, but as I understood the Monty Hall problem as I originally heard it, it was in the rules that Monty always opened a door, never spoiled the game, and always offered you the switch. If those aren’t the rules, it’s just a question of whether you feel lucky

[RM_Mentock]

@Malacandra

CurtC is quite right, of course, which is why I never play three-card monte, but as I understood the Monty Hall problem as I originally heard it, it was in the rules that Monty always opened a door, never spoiled the game, and always offered you the switch. If those aren’t the rules, it’s just a question of whether you feel lucky

Most people’s introduction to the problem (it also appeared in Games magazine some months before–in their last issue before a financial hiatus, so they didn’t have a chance to publish the irate and wrong responses) was in Parade in 1991. The rules weren’t explicit like that.

http://kevingong.com/Math/MontyHall.html

[CurtC]

Malacandra, in all the times that I’ve heard this puzzle (I first heard it as the weekly puzzler on Car Talk, before either Marilyn or Cecil took it on, in the late 80s), I have never, ever, heard it be explicitly stated that Monty is required to offer the switch. On the contrary, I have often heard it stated by the “2/3” defenders that it doesn’t matter, that we’re given that in this instance the switch was offered and that’s all we need to know. You can see that same response earlier in this thread.

[RM_Mentock]

@CurtC

Malacandra, in all the times that I’ve heard this puzzle (I first heard it as the weekly puzzler on Car Talk, before either Marilyn or Cecil took it on, in the late 80s), I have never, ever, heard it be explicitly stated that Monty is required to offer the switch. On the contrary, I have often heard it stated by the “2/3” defenders that it doesn’t matter, that we’re given that in this instance the switch was offered and that’s all we need to know. You can see that same response earlier in this thread.

The Car Talk Puzzler archives show it in about October of 1997. That’s long after Cecil and Marilyn (and Games), but I suppose they could have used it twice.

The puzzle itself has been traced back lots further than that. Martin Gardner had a version in the sixties or seventies.

[CurtC]

Here’s a usenet thread from 1996, where I state that I heard it several years before that on Car Talk.

[RM_Mentock]

@CurtC

Here’s a usenet thread from 1996, where I state that I heard it several years before that on Car Talk.

TGF gooja, AFU, and afca. Car Talk apparently did use it twice. OTOH, it says that Cecil attacked it before Marilyn, but Cecil’s column has the Marilyn text.

[Malacandra]

I heard about it in 1991 or 1992, when Marilyn had just tackled it and controversy was raging. Originally I thought Marilyn was full of it, but I pondered it further and concluded she was right… for which I’m sure she’s grateful.

I should have known better, knowing enough bridge to have heard of the Principle of Restricted Choice (viz: when a player may hold one of two cards, or both, and may play either of them if he has both, the playing of either of them is suggestive that he does not have the other, since if he had both, either one of them would turn up only half the time. If that extremely terse summary makes any sense! )

[Asteroide]

FWIW

One of the earliest known appearances of the problem was in Joseph Bertrand’s Calcul des probabilites (1889) where it was known as Bertrand’s Box Paradox. It later reappeared in Martin Gardner’s 1961 book, More Mathematical Puzzles and Diversions, as The Three Prisoner Problem and then resurfaced in 1975 - inspired by Monty Hall’s U.S. gameshow “Let’s Make a Deal” - in an article in The American Statistician by Steve Selvin entitled A Problem in Probability.

http://barryispuzzled.com/zmonty.htm

I first came across it in a long and tortuous article in a French science mag.

It seems like every time time it comes up again, new and exciting twists are added. So, hours of fun for all the family !