# More bad news for the GOP **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 1, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900 "2016-01-01T14:59:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/1 "2016-01-01T14:59:33Z")
Enjoy those state legislatures and such as long as you can, Republicans, because [more and more writing](http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0UD0X220151230) keeps appearing on the wall: > [@](#): > > The percentage of Republicans among those likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016, election lags Democrats by 9 percentage points, compared with a 6-point deficit in the year leading up to Obama’s 2012 victory, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling data from 2012 and 2015. > > While the American electorate has become more diverse the last three years, the party’s support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly.[…] > > Among whites under 40, the shift is even more dramatic. In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/2 "2016-01-01T18:59:00Z")
I dunno. We know the millennials won’t vote. They’d rather “swipe” the next president in office. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/3 "2016-01-01T19:14:30Z")
It will certainly help the Democrats that the next redistricting election occurs during a Presidential election of 2020. 2010 was an awful combination of an off year election combined with the worst effects of the recession featuring near 10% unemployment which ended with the massive GOP wins that year. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/4 "2016-01-01T20:18:52Z")
The demographic collapse of the GOP is finally upon us. Next up: fusion, Half-Life 3, and Cleveland winning a title. ---
**Author:** ![JBGUSA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/258eb7/32.png) [@JBGUSA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JBGUSA)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/5 "2016-01-01T20:30:34Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > The demographic collapse of the GOP is finally upon us. Next up: fusion, Half-Life 3, and Cleveland winning a title. That was the prediction after five straight Democratic presidential victories starting in 1932 and ending in 1948. Nothing lasts forever. ---
**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/6 "2016-01-01T21:27:33Z")
They voted in the 2006 midterm elections because Bush was doing a poor job when it came to Iraq and the slumping economy. Where were they in 2010 and 2014? Will they turn out due to the fact that Barack Obama will not be on the ballot, but his legacy or his era may? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/7 "2016-01-01T21:33:41Z")
You speak as if 2016 will be a midterm election. Why would it be more like 2010 or 2014 than like 2008 or 2012? ---
**Author:** ![JBGUSA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/258eb7/32.png) [@JBGUSA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JBGUSA)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/8 "2016-01-01T21:45:04Z")
> [@Ask the Gay Guy III?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ask-the-gay-guy-iii/33070/11): > > “Trump Now more than Ever” Here is a good beginning for a Trump speech (too long for a Tweet). This speech in its original form was delivered in Germany on January 30, 1945 and is thus public domain: [INDENT]German compatriots! National Socialists! Twelve years ago, when, as the leader of the strongest party, I was entrusted by the deceased Reich President, [Field Marshal Paul] von Hindenburg, with the office of Chancellor, Germany found herself faced with the same situation internally as the one that today faces it externally. The forces of economic destruction and annihilation of the Versailles dictate led to a situation that had gradually become a permanent one-namely, the existence of almost 7,000,000 unemployed, 7,000,000 part-time workers, a destroyed farmers’ class, a ruined industry and a commerce that had become correspondingly prostrate. The German ports were nothing but ship cemeteries. The financial situation of the country threatened at any moment to lead to a collapse not only of the state but also of the provinces and of the communities. The decisive thing, however, was this: Behind this methodical destruction of Germany’s economy, there stood the specter of Asiatic bolshevism. It , was there then, just as much as it is there today. In the, years before our assumption of power the bourgeois world was incapable of opposing this development effectively on a small scale, just as it is incapable of doing so today on a large scale. Even after the· collapse of 1918 this bourgeois world had failed to realize that an old world was vanishing and a new one being born and that there is no use in supporting and thus artificially maintaining what has been found to be decayed and rotten, but that something healthy must be substituted for it. A social structure that had become obsolete had cracked and every attempt to maintain it was bound to fail. Calls “Bourgeoisie” Still Doomed It was no different from today on a large scale, when the bourgeois states are doomed and when only clearly defined and ideologically consolidated national communities can survive the most difficult crisis Europe has seen in many centuries. ``` ************** ``` Thereupon Judaism began systematically to undermine our nation from within, and it found its best ally in those narrow-minded bourgeoisie who would not recognize that the era of a bourgeois world is ended and will never again return, that the epoch of unbridled economic liberalism has outlived itself and can only lead to its self-destruction and, above all, that the great tasks of our time can be mastered only under an authoritarian coordination of natural strength, based on the law of: same rights for all and, thence, of same duties. [/INDENT] ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/9 "2016-01-01T21:45:07Z")
> [@GloryDays](#): > > They voted in the 2006 midterm elections because Bush was doing a poor job when it came to Iraq and the slumping economy. Where were they in 2010 and 2014? Will they turn out due to the fact that Barack Obama will not be on the ballot, but his legacy or his era may? It will all depend on how close Hillary will support that legacy, odds are that she will and midterm elections are usually strong for the party that does not have the presidency. Not a good predictor of what will take place in a presidential one, and the fact that many do see [how reckless Republicans are in places like Texas](http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/obama-administration-warns-texas-kicking-planned-parenthood-out-of-medicaid-may-be-illegal/)will tell many that indeed we need a democrat in the white house to be a check for the abusive laws that they want to push forward if they get a Republican in the white house. And besides what the OP reports we should not forget the moderate vote, that it is bound to be very important if troglodytes like Trump or Cruz become the Republican nominee. > **[Why Winning The Independent Vote Can Actually Be A Bad Thing](https://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-independent-vote-polls-moderates-election-2012-11)** > [@](#): > > Jim Williams, an analyst at Public Policy Polling, explained during the “unskewing” controversy that a voter’s choice to identify as an Independent can change by the day. Republicans who were disenchanted with Romney might have been more apt to identify as Independent, as Democrats were in 2004 when they were dissatisfied with Kerry. > > In 2012, a much more reliable indicator of success — and a better example of the “swing” vote — came from voters who identified as “moderate.” In every critical battleground state, Obama won the moderate vote. In Iowa, he captured more than 60% of it. Overall, Obama beat Romney by 15 points among moderates. > > True Independents, on the other hand, made up an increasingly small sample when adding in which way Independent voters lean. What this IMHO tells me is that this is worse for the republicans this time around, as the extremism shown by the Republican front runners will not be easy to dismiss as Romney tried to do in 2012, the poison coming from Trump is affecting all the remaining candidates and it is less likely that the moderates will be fooled by the change of gears the Republican candidate will attempt to do in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/10 "2016-01-01T22:25:56Z")
All these predictions of doom for the GOP ignore one salient factor: the far right wing of the GOP has spent the last forty years building substantial local machines. They now dominate a large number of state administrations and legislatures and have successfully gerrymandered a number of states to provide Republican wins even when the overall electorate is marginally Democratic. (This is not a claim that they differ from the intentions or actions of the Democrats, only that they have been more successful in the last few decades.) Even when the Democrats successfully provide a winning Presidential candidate, the Republicans continue to hold the advantage at the state and legislative levels. The growth of the Hispanic constituency and the aging out of many Right-leaning voters will probably change that algorithm, but the notion that it will occur as soon as 2016, (or even 2018), is probably more a wish among pro-Democratic voters than a reality. Third parties will always fail in the U.S., (because the presidential/congressional (or gubernatorial/legislative) form of government works against them in ways that parliamentary forms support them), but it will be interesting to see whether a fiscally conservative/socially centrist group, tiring of the extremes of the Religious Right and the Tea Party–minorities with power beyond their limited size–makes an attempt to start a replacement for the Republican Party in the way that the Republicans organized in 1854 to overthrow the Whigs in 1856. The preceding paragraph indicates my interest in watching events unfold with no claim that I have predicted anything. That local control is still largely held by Republicans on the further Rightward wing. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/11 "2016-01-01T22:38:15Z")
> [@JBGUSA](#): > > That was the prediction after five straight Democratic presidential victories starting in 1932 and ending in 1948. Nothing lasts forever. Eisenhower could have easily have run as a Democrat. There was a greater divide between Eisenhower and Taft than Eisenhower and Stevenson. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/12 "2016-01-01T22:40:06Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Even when the Democrats successfully provide a winning Presidential candidate, the Republicans continue to hold the advantage at the state and legislative levels. I agree on that for the congressional picture, but even there I have seen this movie before. Gerrymandering did work for the Republicans to keep prohibition and conservative economical solutions going pass their welcome stage; but as Al Smith can tell you, even losing the presidency thanks to the fear the Republicans used will not stop the coming big fall of the Republicans by continuing to ignore that people want solutions for the issues the Republican leaders are trying to ignore. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/13 "2016-01-01T22:53:44Z")
Tom’s discussion of Republican control of state legislatures is certainly on the money here in NC. We’re a state that really ought to be in play, but three factors make it difficult for Dems to make much progress here: 1. Dems in this state are so scared of the conservative vote that their main brand is, “we’re not as extreme as those guys.” It’s a very boring brand, and a lot of Dem candidates refuse to stand on any real principles; as a result, moderates too often take a “pox on both their houses” approach, the leftists remain unexcited, and the true believers on the right get plenty of red meat. 2. The national Democratic party has a terrible tendency to write off the South, ensuring Republican victories here. Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy ought to be a requirement for the Democratic party going forward. Make Republicans fight for everything. 3. We have some [godawful gerrymandering here](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/gerrymandering/) (look at the map key and at our state). Even if Dems get a majority of votes for district seats, it’s going to be profoundly difficult to get a majority of districts. Indeed, the rah-rah fundraising email I just got from our state Dems sets the lofty goal of removing the Republicans’ supermajority. Forget gaining a Dem majority. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/14 "2016-01-01T23:23:22Z")
> [@JBGUSA](#): > > That was the prediction after five straight Democratic presidential victories starting in 1932 and ending in 1948. Nothing lasts forever. Well let’s just see what they pull out of the hat to be the modern day version of the “Southern strategy” Gonna be a little trickier now. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/15 "2016-01-01T23:28:47Z")
Another vote for the death of the GOP being greatly exaggerated. At the presidential level they function under a demographic handicap that is increasing, but not an insurmountable one given the right combination of candidates and events. OTOH their advantage at Congressional and state levels is fairly unsurmountable for any near term future. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/16 "2016-01-01T23:56:39Z")
> [@JBGUSA](#): > > This speech in its original form was delivered in Germany on January 30, 1945 and is thus public domain Off topic, but, to make a long story short, the USA is only Life + 70 for works published after 1977: > **[LibGuides: Copyright Services: Copyright Support](https://guides.library.cornell.edu/copyright)** > > LibGuides: Copyright Services: Copyright Support As for your Hitler quote, Trump’s speeches are radically different in tone. Trump is far less coherent and much more focused on his personal situation: > **[Matt Walsh](https://www.facebook.com/MattWalshBlog/posts/1040241006009009)** > > Donald Trump gave a speech in Dallas tonight. It was covered live on, I think, all of the cable news channels. I tuned in for the beginning because, look, I'm an open minded guy. I made it three... > [@](#): > > So, you know, I have a little debate coming up on Wednesday. [APPLAUSE] I hear my… let’s call them opponents. Can I call them opponents? We’re allowed to do that, right? You know, New York was very nice to you people last night, you know that, right? [LAUGHTER] Did they hand you that game? [APPLAUSE] They handed it! I said, I am going to have the friendliest audience – sit down – I am going to have the friendliest audience. So I wasn’t sure, was I happy or was I sad? I’m the last person to defend Donald Trump. He’s a bigot and a demagogue. But except for that, he’s about as dissimilar to Hitler as could be imagined. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/17 "2016-01-02T00:35:33Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > All these predictions of doom for the GOP ignore one salient factor: the far right wing of the GOP has spent the last forty years building substantial local machines. They now dominate a large number of state administrations and legislatures and have successfully gerrymandered a number of states to provide Republican wins even when the overall electorate is marginally Democratic. (This is not a claim that they differ from the intentions or actions of the Democrats, only that they have been more successful in the last few decades.) Even when the Democrats successfully provide a winning Presidential candidate, the Republicans continue to hold the advantage at the state and legislative levels. > > The growth of the Hispanic constituency and the aging out of many Right-leaning voters will probably change that algorithm, but the notion that it will occur as soon as 2016, (or even 2018), is probably more a wish among pro-Democratic voters than a reality. > > Third parties will always fail in the U.S., (because the presidential/congressional (or gubernatorial/legislative) form of government works against them in ways that parliamentary forms support them), but it will be interesting to see whether a fiscally conservative/socially centrist group, tiring of the extremes of the Religious Right and the Tea Party–minorities with power beyond their limited size–makes an attempt to start a replacement for the Republican Party in the way that the Republicans organized in 1854 to overthrow the Whigs in 1856. > The preceding paragraph indicates my interest in watching events unfold with no claim that I have predicted anything. That local control is still largely held by Republicans on the further Rightward wing. Even that is going away as several states have done away with partisan redistricting, we just scored a big win on this down here in FL. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/18 "2016-01-02T01:04:41Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > It will certainly help the Democrats that the next redistricting election occurs during a Presidential election of 2020. 2010 was an awful combination of an off year election combined with the worst effects of the recession featuring near 10% unemployment which ended with the massive GOP wins that year. The next census takes place in 2020. It’s likely that the greater turnout of a presidential election will spur a greater percentage of Democrat voters to the polls even in state elections and therefore will have some effect on the composition of state legislatures. Those legislatures are, in most states, the ones who redistrict their state. But that won’t happen in 2020 or even 2021. Court cases often drag out the process for years. I’d be surprised if all the processes had finished by the 2024 election, so in many places it might be the 2022 election that determines who runs the legislatures. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/19 "2016-01-02T01:11:30Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I’m the last person to defend Donald Trump. He’s a bigot and a demagogue. But except for that, he’s about as dissimilar to Hitler as could be imagined. “Except for that”? Those are kind of the two big things Hitler’s known for. ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900/20 "2016-01-02T01:13:29Z")
> [@JBGUSA](#): > > That was the prediction after five straight Democratic presidential victories starting in 1932 and ending in 1948. Nothing lasts forever. To be fair, 4 out of the 5 victories were one guy. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-bad-news-for-the-gop/741900.md?page=2)