# More earthquakes than usual? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 6, 2010, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217 "2010-04-06T23:55:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![acetylene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@acetylene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/acetylene)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/21 "2010-04-07T14:38:14Z")
[According to this](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php), the number of earthquakes so far this year is nothing unusual, but the number of deaths is extremely high. So far in 2010 an estimated 223,140 people have been killed, which is far, far more than any other year except 2004, which had an estimated 228,802 deaths for the whole year. (I only looked back to 1980). ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/22 "2010-04-07T14:39:17Z")
If the OP is worried that the current earthquakes might be global-warming-related, it’s extremely unlikely. Geologists are looking into the question of whether **future** levels of warming might increase the frequency or severity of seismic events, but I don’t think anyone’s seriously arguing that earthquakes happening right now are detectably affected by climate change. Here’s a [rather sensationalistic newspaper article](http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/06/global-warming-natural-disasters-conference) on last September’s London conference on Climate Forcing of Geological and Geomorphological Hazards. And here’s the actual [program](http://www.abuhrc.org/newsmedia/Pages/event_view.aspx?event=5) of the conference. ETA: Oh, and here’s an abstract of one of the overview talks in the conference: > [@](#): > > WARMER-WORLD DRIVERS OF GEOLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL HAZARDS > > Betts, R. A. (1) and McGuire, W. J. (2) > > (1) Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United > Kingdom > > (2) Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, University > College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK. > > Plausible projections of future climate change cover a wide range of possibilities, due to > uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions and the global and regional responses of the climate > system. Some further climate change is already inevitable even if large emissions cuts are > made in the near future - however, current research suggests that such emissions cuts could > still allow us to avoid the largest long-term effects. Key questions are: will the unavoidable > climate changes lead to major impacts, and how deep must emissions cuts be in order to > avoid major impacts? Such questions, while of critical urgency, are very difficult to answer > and are the subject of major research efforts. This presentation will review the current range > of projections of future climate changes under different scenarios, in the context of geological > and geomorphological hazards. These may range from increased levels of rockslides, debris > flow production and glacial meltwater outbursts, in elevated or high-latitude terrains, to > broader effects having the potential to influence volcanic and seismic activity and the > incidence of submarine slope failures and tsunamis. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Dave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/46a35a/32.png) [@Great\_Dave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Dave)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/23 "2010-04-07T14:43:16Z")
Also, the earthquakes we have had this year have been closer to population centers- when our allotment of large earthquakes happen in the ocean or in the middle of nowhere, they don’t get much press. ---
**Author:** ![SleepyDuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@SleepyDuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SleepyDuck)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/24 "2010-04-08T05:52:57Z")
> [@Anne\_Neville](#): > > A meteorologist wouldn’t necessarily know more about earthquakes than any random person off the street. If a geologist or seismologist says something like this, I’ll sit up and pay attention. Agree. I would also differentiate between a meteorologist and a “weather man”. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/25 "2010-04-08T06:44:26Z")
> [@acetylene](#): > > [According to this](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php), the number of earthquakes so far this year is nothing unusual, but the number of deaths is extremely high. So far in 2010 an estimated 223,140 people have been killed, which is far, far more than any other year except 2004, which had an estimated 228,802 deaths for the whole year. (I only looked back to 1980). If you’d gone back 4 more years to 1976, you’d have found the [Tangshan earthquake](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tangshan_earthquake) which leveled the Chinese city of that name and caused at least 240,000 deaths. I’m not sure it’s meaningful to compare the number of deaths due to earthquakes from year to year. Just looking at the numbers for the last 10 years (on that USGS page you linked to), there doesn’t seem to be any kind of pattern. There’s two very deadly years but also two years with less than 1000 deaths. ---
**Author:** ![Viscera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/258eb7/32.png) [@Viscera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Viscera)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/26 "2010-04-08T06:47:13Z")
> [@Anne\_Neville](#): > > A meteorologist wouldn’t necessarily know more about earthquakes than any random person off the street. If a geologist or seismologist says something like this, I’ll sit up and pay attention. As a meteorologist, I agree 100%. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/27 "2010-04-08T07:17:07Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > I’m not sure it’s meaningful to compare the number of deaths due to earthquakes from year to year. Just looking at the numbers for the last 10 years (on that USGS page you linked to), there doesn’t seem to be any kind of pattern. There’s two very deadly years but also two years with less than 1000 deaths. Especially since the overwhelming majority of deaths were due to a single event: Indonesia in 2004, Haiti in 2010 (which rank among the top five deadliest quakes in all recorded history.) Similarly, the high death tolls in 2005 and 2008 were the result of major earthquakes in [Kashmir](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Kashmir_earthquake) and [China](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Sichuan_earthquake). On the other hand, it’s interesting to see that 2007 had significantly more earthquakes than average – including FOUR above mag 8.0 :eek: – but relatively few deaths (712). ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/28 "2010-04-08T14:17:33Z")
> [@Kyla](#): > > I hope not. > > (My parents live there.) > > Anyway, of course the earthquakes are a coincidence. What else could it be? HAARP - Just ask Hugo Chavez. Increased testing, more earthquakes, coincidence? I think not! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/29 "2010-04-08T15:26:33Z")
[Yesterday on CNN.com:](http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/science/04/07/earthquake.frequency/index.html) > [@](#): > > The difference this year is not the frequency or strength of earthquakes, but their occurrence in or near population centers, the scientists say. Earthquakes _in the news_ are more than usual. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2010, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/30 "2010-04-14T13:25:41Z")
> [@Great\_Dave](#): > > Also, the earthquakes we have had this year have been closer to population centers- when our allotment of large earthquakes happen in the ocean or in the middle of nowhere, they don’t get much press. Notably, there was a largish earthquake near a population center _that was not well-prepared for earthquakes_. That’s going to cause an unusually high number of deaths, just like a tsunami in places that were not well-prepared for tsunamis did in 2004. The Tangshan earthquake was similar to this one in the lack of preparedness. Tangshan was not thought to be in a place where earthquakes were likely, so buildings weren’t built with seismic standards in mind. Poverty and the lack of government enforcement of building standards were behind the lack of them in Haiti, but the result was similar. Large population center + lack of seismic building standards = lots of deaths if an earthquake does happen there. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2010, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/31 "2010-04-14T13:38:48Z")
As I posted in the other front-page-of-GQ thread asking the same question … Here [http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/opinion/11musson.html](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/opinion/11musson.html) is a New York Times guest editorial written by a seismologist on Apr 11th, i.e. 3 days ago. ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2010, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/32 "2010-04-14T15:35:35Z")
And another large one today in China. ---
**Author:** ![SleepyDuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@SleepyDuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SleepyDuck)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/33 "2010-04-15T05:19:55Z")
> [@Palo\_Verde](#): > > And another large one today in China. Your point being…? ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/34 "2010-04-15T05:23:12Z")
> [@SleepyDuck](#): > > Your point being…? Right, mentioning another large earthquakes in a discussion about the amount of large earthquakes is silly. ---
**Author:** ![SleepyDuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@SleepyDuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SleepyDuck)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/35 "2010-04-15T05:27:28Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > Right, mentioning another large earthquakes in a discussion about the amount of large earthquakes is silly. Yes, especially with no context or explanation involved. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/36 "2010-04-15T05:32:33Z")
> [@SleepyDuck](#): > > Yes, especially with no context or explanation involved. All right, I’ll fix it for him. Shit guys! There was another big quake! This time it was in China. Here, take a look! [http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1](http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1) Better? ---
**Author:** ![malkavia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malkavia/32/5621_2.png) [@malkavia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/malkavia)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/37 "2010-04-15T05:35:40Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > All right, I’ll fix it for him. > > Shit guys! There was another big quake! This time it was in China. > > Here, take a look! > > [http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1](http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1) > > Better? I don’t know whether there are more earthquakes this year or not, but this post made me audibly laugh at my monitor which does not happen often. ---
**Author:** ![SleepyDuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@SleepyDuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SleepyDuck)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/38 "2010-04-15T05:40:25Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > All right, I’ll fix it for him. > > Shit guys! There was another big quake! This time it was in China. > > Here, take a look! > > [http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1](http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/gallery?section=news/entertainment&id=7385506&photo=1) > > Better? Are you asking me or **Palo Verde**? ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2010, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217/39 "2010-04-15T05:40:46Z")
> [@malkavia](#): > > I don’t know whether there are more earthquakes this year or not, but this post made me audibly laugh at my monitor which does not happen often. AClockworkMelon, spreadin’ lulz and knowledge wherever he goes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-earthquakes-than-usual/535217.md?page=1)