# More guns, more murders **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 23, 2006, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743 "2006-07-23T20:46:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/1 "2006-07-23T20:46:41Z")
This grows out of the [fact](http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#more-3035) that the gun-friendly USA has, by an enormous margin, the highest murder rate among industrialized nations. Most of the others are far less gun-friendly. It also grows from the [fact](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...ad.php?t=182318) that I proved a couple years back: that gun-friendly areas of the USA (as determined by concealed-carry laws) have much higher murder rates than other areas. To me this has always been sufficient to prove that guns in the hands of private citizens do not prevent murder, but rather have the opposite effect. Last year, our friendly doper **duffer** explained his [reasoning](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=339234&highlight=Concealed+Carry) for not accepting my reasoning. > [@](#): > > OK, I’ve had it with this citing gun crimes/deaths in the US as proof the US is nuts to allow gun ownership. > > Can we start looking at stats outside of national deaths per gun crimes? Quit averaging this shit. Would anyone here seriously equate risk of gun crime between Detroit and Sacramento? DC and Kansas City? Chicago and Austin? The cities populations aren’t the same, but per 100k capita should give an inkling that it’s not the widespread national pandemic that is seen by the rest of the world. > > Maybe someone can compare the largest 10 non-carry cities to the largest 10 conceal-carry cities? I’ll bet my house, dog and wife that the conceal-carry cities fare better overall to the non-carry cities when it comes to the odds of your ass getting shot off. That sounded quite reasonable, and no one can accuse me of a biased approach since it was **duffer** who came up with the idea. Crime data is [here](http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004902.html); concealed-carry laws are [here](http://www.packing.org/state/all_united_states//). (Somewhat out-of-date, but I can’t find anything more recent.) Here are the cities , populations, murder rate per 100000, and total murders. New York, N.Y. 8,143,197 7.4 603 NCC Los Angeles, Calif. 3,844,829 13.4 515 NCC Chicago, Ill. 2,842,512 20.6 586 NCC Houston, Tex. 2,016,582 13.6 274 CC Philadelphia, Pa. 1,463,281 23.3 341 CC Phoenix, Ariz. 1,461,575 17.2 251 CC San Antonio, Tex. 1,256,509 7.0 80 CC San Diego, Calif. 1,255,540 5.1 64 NCC Dallas, Tex. 1,213,825 18.4 223 CC San Jose, Calif. 912,332 3.2 29 NCC Detroit, Mich. 886,671 39.4 349 CC Indianapolis, Ind. 784,118 13.1 98 CC Jacksonville, Fla. 782,623 11.8 92 CC San Francisco, Calif. 739,426 8.9 66 NCC Columbus, Ohio 730,657 15.0 110 CC Austin, Tex. 690,255 4.0 28 CC Baltimore, Md. 635,815 41.9 266 NCC Milwaukee, Wis. 578,868 18.5 107 NCC Boston, Mass. 559,034 6.6 37 NCC Washington, DC 550,521 44.0 242 NCC In total, the ten biggest concealed-carry cities have: 1846 murders, about 11,300,000 people, and a rate of 16.4 murders per 100,000. The non concealed-carry cities have: 2514 murders, about 20,100,000 people, and a rate of 12.5 murders per 100,000. Non concealed-carry cities win by a long shot. When creating policy we need to consider all the available data. We cannont cherry-pick only those data we want, like when a poster in the thread linked above wanted to compare only Chicago to Austin, rather than looking at nationwide data. We cannot simply ignore what doesn’t serve our side, as when **TheEggman** continued to make claims about crimes rates in Britain after they were debunked. Concealed-carry laws correlate with higher murder rates. (Oh, and **duffer** , I’ll drop by Monday afternoon to collect the house and dog. You may keep the wife.) ---
**Author:** ![smile4me2222](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@smile4me2222](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smile4me2222)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/2 "2006-07-23T20:56:40Z")
Since murder rates are affected by demographic factors like race and class; and since different U.S. cities and different countries have different racial and demographic mixes, your analysis needs to factor this in. One way to do it would be to look at murder rates before and after some particular law – such as concealed carry – goes into effect. Another way would be to look at the murder rates among particular races/classes. Unless you do one of these things, your analysis doesn’t mean a whole lot. ---
**Author:** ![Wakinyan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wakinyan/32/352_2.png) [@Wakinyan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wakinyan)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/3 "2006-07-23T21:09:47Z")
> [@](#): > > More guns, more murders That’s so obvious I didn’t know people actually had a debate over it. ---
**Author:** ![yelimS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/54ee81/32.png) [@yelimS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yelimS)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/4 "2006-07-23T21:15:58Z")
> [@smile4me2222](#): > > Unless you do one of these things, your analysis doesn’t mean a whole lot. Well, it does mean he won the bet. ---
**Author:** ![Common\_Tater](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/common_tater/32/13846_2.png) [@Common\_Tater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Common_Tater)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/5 "2006-07-23T21:16:59Z")
Certainly more guns in the hands of criminals… Unfortunately in recent decades many areas have defacto disarmed the law-abiding populace - emboldening the criminal class who can prey on the citizenry with impunity. Killing someone isn’t something to take lightly but better the bad guys than innocents. Washington, D.C. is the poster child of “gun free” carnage. ---
**Author:** ![smile4me2222](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@smile4me2222](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smile4me2222)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/6 "2006-07-23T21:23:53Z")
> [@yelimS](#): > > Well, it does mean he won the bet. Oops, I wasn’t paying attention to the bet. I’m just thinking about gun control policy. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/7 "2006-07-23T21:39:48Z")
The thing that doesn’t make sense to me is why would increased numbers of people **with carry permits** , as opposed to more gun possession in general, lead to more murders? There are places where public carry permits are difficult or near-impossible to obtain, yet people are still allowed to buy guns and keep them in private residences. So carry permits should be irrelevent to firearm deaths that take place in the home: suicide, murder of family members, accidental shootings, etc. And presumably members of high-risk sections of the population- career criminals, etc.- are going to either not be eligible for permits or not bother to get them. And finally of course people setting out to commit premeditated murder are not going to give a \*\*\*\* about permit laws. So what is the OP claiming? That previously law-abiding people turn into cowboys and start shooting people on the street and in bars as soon as you put a gun in their hands? Without going through another thread of “dueling statistics” over gun-related deaths, I call bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/8 "2006-07-23T21:47:19Z")
[Employee in Custody After Stabbing 8 Grocery Store Co-Workers](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,204949,00.html) * * * MEMPHIS, Tenn. — A knife-wielding grocery store employee attacked eight co-workers Friday, seriously injuring five before a witness pulled a gun and stopped him, police said.\*\*\* I didn’t see Memphis on your list. My point is, when your cow-orkers are bleeding half to death and the perp is coming at YOU next, you won’t give a rats ass about your silly list. You’ll just want him stopped any way possible. A pistol seems like an excellent tool: \* **“When he turned around and saw my pistol, he threw the knife away, put his hands up and got on the ground,” Cope told The Associated Press. “He saw my gun and that was pretty much it.”** \* Yes this is only one case in millions. So what? ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/9 "2006-07-23T22:02:57Z")
How many of those murders were committed by people with concealed-carry permits? Thought so. Your “analysis” means nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Opus1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/858c86/32.png) [@Opus1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Opus1)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/10 "2006-07-23T22:22:18Z")
A high crime rate might encourage people to carry firearms in the first place. As an analogy, I guarantee you that towns where nobody locks their doors have far less crime than cities where everyone uses three deadbolts, an alarm system, and bars on all the windows. I therefore conclude that locks cause burglary. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/11 "2006-07-23T23:06:59Z")
Firstly, concealed-carry laws are generally agreed to be a good measure of how gun-friendly or gun-unfriendly a locality is. If anyone disagrees that this is so, they’re welcome to propose a better measure. > [@](#): > > Since murder rates are affected by demographic factors like race and class; and since different U.S. cities and different countries have different racial and demographic mixes, your analysis needs to factor this in. > > One way to do it would be to look at murder rates before and after some particular law – such as concealed carry – goes into effect. Another way would be to look at the murder rates among particular races/classes. > > Unless you do one of these things, your analysis doesn’t mean a whole lot. Well, how many possible demographic factors are there? An almost infinite number. So let’s say that you reject my analysis because I didn’t account for race. so then I respond by restricting my study only to white people. You then demand that I account for social class. I restrict my study to poor, white people. You then demand that I account for age. I restrict to poor, white people between the ages of 20 and 30. You demand that I account for gender. I restrict myself to poor,white,males between 20 and 30. You then demand that I account for tongue-curling etc… The end result it that you’ve reduced this to a meaningless exercise. Apply the same logic to any topic, and you’ll end up rejecting every piece of data (in the social science fields). It’s precisely to address this issue that I took the ten biggest cities in each category. The cities aren’t all identical, but I bet that if you averaged out the ten cities in each category the two categories would look fairly similar. Thus, there’s no reason to believe that any difference in demographics is affecting the outcome, and the difference is large enough that it can’t be statistical random noise. Having established that murderers greatly prefer gun-friendly cities, it’s up to gun supporters to provide an actual alternate explanation, rather than just saying that there _might_ be an alternate explanation. > [@](#): > > Unfortunately in recent decades many areas have defacto disarmed the law-abiding populace - emboldening the criminal class who can prey on the citizenry with impunity. Killing someone isn’t something to take lightly but better the bad guys than innocents. We’ve debated the theory up and down in a dozen different threads. I started this thread to discuss the fact that private gun ownership correlates with high murder rates. Theoretical reasons why guns should reduce crime rates aren’t much good if you get shot. > [@](#): > > I didn’t see Memphis on your list. Before you go around citing Memphis as a gun-filled, crime-free paradise, you might want to get [the facts](http://www.morganquinto.com/cit03r.pdf). > [@](#): > > My point is, when your cow-orkers are bleeding half to death and the perp is coming at YOU next, you won’t give a rats ass about your silly list. You’ll just want him stopped any way possible. A pistol seems like an excellent tool: I’m suffering a short-term memory lapse. Remind me again, what’s the plural of annecdote? ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/12 "2006-07-23T23:13:43Z")
> [@Opus1](#): > > A high crime rate might encourage people to carry firearms in the first place. As an analogy, I guarantee you that towns where nobody locks their doors have far less crime than cities where everyone uses three deadbolts, an alarm system, and bars on all the windows. I therefore conclude that locks cause burglary. We have a winner. Gun proliferation doesn’t cause crime. Crime causes gun proliferation. ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2006, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/13 "2006-07-23T23:44:27Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > We have a winner. Gun proliferation doesn’t cause crime. Crime causes gun proliferation. Absolutely, especially for CCW. ---
**Author:** ![smile4me2222](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@smile4me2222](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smile4me2222)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/14 "2006-07-24T00:03:01Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > The cities aren’t all identical, but I bet that if you averaged out the ten cities in each category the two categories would look fairly similar. Thus, there’s no reason to believe that any difference in demographics is affecting the outcome, and the difference is large enough that it can’t be statistical random noise. \*\* I doubt it. But anyway, there’s a very easy way to account for race, class, etc. without getting into endless debate you describe: Just look at murder rates in the years before and after CCW is enacted. In that way, you know that the demographic profile is roughly the same. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/15 "2006-07-24T00:11:47Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Firstly, concealed-carry laws are generally agreed to be a good measure of how gun-friendly or gun-unfriendly a locality is. Nonsense! California has concealed carry. In quite a few areas it’s easy to get a permit. Massachusetts has concealed carry. Maryland has CCW Connecticut has concealed carry Rhode Island has CCW New York has concealed carry New Jersey has CCW Iowa has concealed carry. In many places there it’s quite easy to get a permit. Minnesota has concealed carry. Shall issue. And had “may issue” before that. Even Massachusetts has concealed carry. Every one of these staes has CCW, with thousands of permits issues. None of those states would be called overly gun friendly as all of them have some or many draconian anti-gun, anti-gun owner laws. The measure of gun friendlyness is a mixture of issues, not just one. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/16 "2006-07-24T00:26:43Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Before you go around citing Memphis as a gun-filled, crime-free paradise I didn’t. I mearly said it wasn’t on the list on your OP. Guns are everywhere, and every state except Wisconsin, lllinois & the District of Columbia have some form of concealed carry. So the only way you can make your case is if you can show that these are low crime utopias, AND that they are low crime utopias BECAUSE of their lack of concealed carry. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/17 "2006-07-24T00:32:53Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > Guns are everywhere, and every state except Wisconsin, lllinois & the District of Columbia have some form of concealed carry. Actually a Wisconsin State Supreme Court ruling allows for home owners and businesses to carry concealed on their property, so your down to Ill & DC for no CCW. How can you prove your case when only 2 places have no CCW our of 51? ---
**Author:** ![Common\_Tater](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/common_tater/32/13846_2.png) [@Common\_Tater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Common_Tater)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/18 "2006-07-24T00:44:39Z")
Although it may be “possible”, technically, to obtain a concealed carry permit, in practice this is not the case for many states or municipalities. Iirc, it was necessary to sue New York City just to obtain an _application_; they were not even available to be turned down for everyday serfs. As far as getting it approved, unless you’re connected politically, forget it. The inherent right of self-defense can be expunged as well - I believe it is Massachusetts, birthplace of independence, at which courts have decided the brave citizenry have a “duty to flee” when attacked, even at home. And successfully defending oneself against the riff-raff is about guaranteed to invite a civil lawsuit, if the prosecutor can be held at bay. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/19 "2006-07-24T01:32:36Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > [Employee in Custody After Stabbing 8 Grocery Store Co-Workers](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,204949,00.html) > > * * * > > MEMPHIS, Tenn. — A knife-wielding grocery store employee attacked eight co-workers Friday, seriously injuring five before a witness pulled a gun and stopped him, police said.\*\*\* > I didn’t see Memphis on your list. > My point is, when your cow-orkers are bleeding half to death and the perp is coming at YOU next, you won’t give a rats ass about your silly list. You’ll just want him stopped any way possible. A pistol seems like an excellent tool: > \* > **“When he turned around and saw my pistol, he threw the knife away, put his hands up and got on the ground,” Cope told The Associated Press. “He saw my gun and that was pretty much it.”** \* > > Yes this is only one case in millions. So what? 6 people stabbed, none dead. How many do you think would have died if the perp had a gun instead of a knife? ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2006, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743/20 "2006-07-24T01:40:51Z")
> [@treis](#): > > 6 people stabbed, none dead. How many do you think would have died if the perp had a gun instead of a knife? Answer this first: How many more would he have stabbed and/or killed had he not been stopped by an armed civilian? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-guns-more-murders/365743.md?page=2)