# More prisoners DESPITE drop in crime? Or less crime BECAUSE OF more prison **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 28, 2003, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528 "2003-07-28T22:08:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/1 "2003-07-28T22:08:48Z")
The AP [reports](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=533&ncid=533&e=4&u=/ap/20030728/ap_on_re_us/prison_population) that > [@](#): > > America’s prison population grew again in 2002 despite a declining crime rate, costing the federal government and states an estimated $40 billion a year at a time of rampant budget shortfalls. > > The inmate population in 2002 of more than 2.1 million represented a 2.6 percent increase over 2001, according to a report released Sunday by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Preliminary FBI statistics showed a 0.2 percent drop in overall crime during the same span. Conservatives claim that the increase in imprisoned criminals is a cause of the drop in the crime rate. Of course, the numbers in the second paragraph makes it clear that the decline in crime rate was negligible. Furthermore, it’s not automatically clear whether the additional prisoners are hard-core criminals. I’m not sure either side is right. There may be separate causes for the drop in crime rate and rise in prison population. Is it surprising that crime went down when prison population went up? Is it to be expected that crime would go down when prison population goes up? Or, do the two statistics have nothing to do with each other? But, the deb ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/2 "2003-07-28T22:25:04Z")
could 2.1 mil people be responsible for 0.2% of the crime? ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/3 "2003-07-28T22:28:04Z")
Don’t rule out a third, independent cause. For example: abortion. There is some evidence to suggest that today’s low crime rates are a benefit of the millions of abortions performed in the last 30 years. Trinopus ---
**Author:** ![MemoryLeak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6f9a4e/32.png) [@MemoryLeak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MemoryLeak)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/4 "2003-07-28T22:35:45Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SimonX \* > \*\*could 2.1 mil people be responsible for 0.2% of the crime? \*\* I assume you mean could those 53,000 (roughly) people be responsible for 0.2% of the crime. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/5 "2003-07-28T23:01:23Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by MemoryLeak \* > \*\*I assume you mean could those 53,000 (roughly) people be responsible for 0.2% of the crime. \*\* Just keep assuming like that ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/6 "2003-07-28T23:10:01Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Trinopus \* > \*\*Don’t rule out a third, independent cause. For example: abortion. There is some evidence to suggest that today’s low crime rates are a benefit of the millions of abortions performed in the last 30 years. > > Trinopus \*\* I would like to see your evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/7 "2003-07-28T23:17:49Z")
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8043-2003Mar10?language=printer](http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8043-2003Mar10?language=printer) ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/8 "2003-07-28T23:35:49Z")
P.S. I didn’t actually bring that issue up to argue it – although it was kinda fun to toss it out like a candy bar in a swimming pool – but to exemplify that you _can’t_ simply take two extant trends and claim that they are necessarily causally related. Trinopus ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/9 "2003-07-28T23:50:33Z")
I’d look at demographics first. Most crime is committed by males between the ages of (something like) 18 - 34. As that demographic goes up or down, so does the crime rate, all other things being equal. ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/10 "2003-07-29T01:39:52Z")
I would also posit that the 0.2% drop in crime is really statistically insignificant; it would be within the margin of error for such a figure to have had a small crime increase actually occur. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/11 "2003-07-29T11:11:15Z")
Most crime is also committed by males without fathers. More of those kinds of pregnancies are being aborted now, and most abortions are among people of low socio-economic class. it’s not proof by any means, but it is interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/12 "2003-07-29T12:47:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SimonX \* > \*\*Just keep assuming like that \*\* I’m not sure if you’re being snippy or not, but I think it’s possible you misunderstood the numbers given in the OP. 2.1 million represents the 2002 prison population, which is higher (by 2.6%, or about 53000) than the 2001 population. If there was a correlation, it would suggest that imprisoning these 53000 people caused a 0.2% drop in crime. Personally, I think the correlation exists but unless you make an effort to identify lock up the hard-core criminals (i.e. those who are really dangerous and likely to reoffend regardless of punishment/rehabilitation) it’s a stunningly inefficient way to reduce crime. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/13 "2003-07-29T17:50:07Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by adaher \* > Most crime is also committed by males without fathers. The only “male without [a] father” I know of died around 2000 years ago. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-prisoners-despite-drop-in-crime-or-less-crime-because-of-more-prison/191528/14 "2003-07-29T18:12:28Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by rjung \* > \*\*The only “male without [a] father” I know of died around 2000 years ago. 😉 \*\* Yeah, but that guy was a real villian. He sold poison milk to schoolchildren. Or was that Lincoln?