# More trouble for Dan Ariely **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** science-math\ **Created:** [October 30, 2024, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453 "2024-10-30T17:36:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/1 "2024-10-30T17:36:36Z")
You might know Dan from his book _Predictively Irrational_, which was a huge pop science success about behavioral economics/general science. I never loved the book because his conclusions were too glib, and the studies statistically thin, but it never occurred to me that he was using falsified data. Background is below, but the latest is that the Journal of Marketing Research has “expressed concern” about one of his studies, basically saying that they tried to duplicate it and failed (in fact, found a small effect in the opposite direction), but used his data instead and duplicated it, but have concerns about that data’s provenance. [Expression of Concern: “The Dishonesty of Honest People: A Theory of Self-Concept Maintenance”, 2024](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00222437241285882) Background: Here’s the blog post that set things into motion in 2021: [[98] Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Field Experiment About Dishonesty - Data Colada](https://datacolada.org/98) Here’s a great summary video, though it’s 21 minutes. Some of it is entertaining in a rough way, particularly his email exchanges with Aimee Rossi. [More evidence of fraud in Dan Ariely’s work : r/slatestarcodex](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/15k1y18/more_evidence_of_fraud_in_dan_arielys_work/) My take on this is that just for that one auto study, nobody was statistically knowledgeable enough to do basic exploratory data analysis (or they would have seen that discrepancy), or even sophisticated enough to fake the data better. Basically: people doing statistics who shouldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/2 "2026-08-31T14:33:47Z")
Hmmm, looks like I might’ve been the only one interested in this topic. A new blog post from the excellent Data Colada dropped today; they got access to the data for a 2002 study about procrastination that has over 2,100 citations about procrastination. That original data provided by Ariely is very strange looking, as they document very well, and his co-author has asked that it be retracted. Ariely says it’s too far back for him to remember the details, but he encourages the appropriate review. [[138] Artificial Deadlines (Part 1): Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About Procrastination – Data Colada](https://datacolada.org/138) I follow a couple of bloggers who regularly detail fraud in paper publications, and the reality is that it’s rampant, and consequences are rarely meaningful. But all of it is very depressing. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/3 "2026-08-31T14:45:52Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Data Colada Two words that strike fear in the hearts of any sketchy researcher. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/4 "2026-08-31T15:01:30Z")
Another two words - [Retraction Watch](https://retractionwatch.com/2021/09/14/highly-criticized-paper-on-dishonesty-retracted/). ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/5 "2026-08-31T17:25:23Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > A new blog post from the excellent Data Colada dropped today; they got access to the data for a 2002 study about procrastination that has over 2,100 citations about procrastination. It’s about time they finally got around to doing this. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/6 "2026-08-31T18:51:54Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > A new blog post from the excellent Data Colada dropped today; Gotta thank you for this. I passed it along to **Spouse Weasel** who enjoys tearing studies apart. I don’t have the requisite knowledge to evaluate it myself (although even I know that is a crazy huge effect size) but if I keep reading the site, maybe I will! > [@solost](#): > > It’s about time they finally got around to doing this. ISWYDT ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/7 "2026-09-04T19:41:02Z")
The procrastination study has now been retracted. > **[Procrastination study by Duke’s Dan Ariely retracted after sleuths find signs...](https://retractionwatch.com/2026/09/03/procrastination-study-duke-dan-ariely-psychological-science-data-colada-tampering-retraction/)** > > A psychology journal has retracted a seminal 2002 paper on deadlines and procrastination coauthored by behavioral scientist Dan Ariely of Duke University just days after a team of sleuths published… ---
**Author:** ![Frilly\_Heck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/90ced4/32.png) [@Frilly\_Heck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frilly_Heck)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/8 "2026-09-04T21:50:55Z")
Interesting to consider the media coverage of this story, and the fact that Ariely is still employed by Duke, in the light of [what happened to Jason Arday](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-following-this-bizarre-jason-arday-story-out-of-cambridge-university/1032289). ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/9 "2026-09-04T22:02:27Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I follow a couple of bloggers who regularly detail fraud in paper publications, and the reality is that it’s rampant, and consequences are rarely meaningful. But all of it is very depressing. That _ **is** _ depressing. Certainly Ariely (if he’s guilty of what he’s accused of) has prospered by …doing whatever it is he’s done. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/10 "2026-09-04T22:08:46Z")
Jokes aside, I have to wonder how this got picked up 24 years after the study was published. It gives the author a lot of plausible deniability in saying he doesn’t remember. He might not. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/11 "2026-09-04T22:32:21Z")
> [@Spice\_Weasel](#): > > Jokes aside, I have to wonder how this got picked up 24 years after the study was published. It’s a kinda fascinating story. In 2006 a PhD student interested in the topic of procrastination asked for the files, and Ariely sent them. He didn’t do anything with them, however…flash forward to 2023, and the same guy is now a full professor and he and another researcher decide to do a big updated version of it. The new study fails, so they go back to the original data to see what was different. It looks so weird that they first ask Ariely about it, and he blows them off, so they send it to Data Colada. There’s a question in all this about why he would send the guy the data,..hubris? Didn’t really think about it? The kinds of data profiling that are available/standard now were much more manual back then? I dunno. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2026, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/more-trouble-for-dan-ariely/1009453/12 "2026-09-05T00:23:47Z")
Ariely has a long way to go before making an appearance on the international [retraction leaderboard](https://retractionwatch.com/the-retraction-watch-leaderboard/), currently headed by (former) [German](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/medical-journals-retract-unethical-research-idUSTRE7235J8/) [anesthesiologist](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-12646398) and [professor](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/8360678/Joachim-Boldt-profile-a-glittering-career-built-on-charisma-and-charm.html)Joachim [Boldt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joachim_Boldt) with _240_ retractions.